This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.
Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on data for the interest rate differential between France and Germany and find support for our hypothesis.
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.
Traditionally the choice of exchange rate regime has been seen as a second-best policy choice, which can be directed toward mitigating the distortionary effects of price or information rigidities. In this paradigm the optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility is found to depend of the source and nature of shocks hitting an economy. More recent literature views the exchange rate as a widely and frequently seen manifestation of government policy with careful exchange-rate management emerging as a tool that can enhance shaky policy credibility.
This paper provides a summary of the key policies that encourage dedollarization. It focuses on cases in which the authorities’ intention is to gain greater control of monetary policy and draws on the experiences of countries that have successfully dedollarized. Unlike previous work on the subject, this paper examines both macroeconomic stabilization policies and microeconomic measures, such as prudential regulation of the financial system. This study is also the first attempt to make extensive use of the foreign exchange regulation data reported in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. The main conclusion is that durable dedollarization depends on a credible disinflation plan and specific microeconomic measures.
Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.
How has the Bank of Japan (BOJ) helped shape Japan's economic growth during the past two decades? This book comprehensively explores the relations between financial market liberalization and BOJ policies and examines the ways in which these policies promoted economic growth in the 1980s. The authors argue that the structure of Japan's financial markets, particularly restrictions on money-market transactions and the key role of commercial banks in financing corporate investments, allowed the BOJ to influence Japan's economic success. The first two chapters provide the most in-depth English-language discussion of the BOJ's operating procedures and policymaker's views about how BOJ actions affect the Japanese business cycle. Chapter three explores the impact of the BOJ's distinctive window guidance policy on corporate investment, while chapter four looks at how monetary policy affects the term structure of interest rates in Japan. The final two chapters examine the overall effect of monetary policy on real aggregate economic activity. This volume will prove invaluable not only to economists interested in the technical operating procedures of the BOJ, but also to those interested in the Japanese economy and in the operation and outcome of monetary reform in general.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
