Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.
Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available. Kim, Myung-Hee Y. and Wilson, John W. Langley Research Center NASA/TP-2000-210536, L-18020, NAS 1.60:210536
This volume is dedicated to the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which was launched 11 February 2010. The articles focus on the spacecraft and its instruments: the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE), and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Articles within also describe calibration results and data processing pipelines that are critical to understanding the data and products, concluding with a description of the successful Education and Public Outreach activities. This book is geared towards anyone interested in using the unprecedented data from SDO, whether for fundamental heliophysics research, space weather modeling and forecasting, or educational purposes. Previously published in Solar Physics journal, Vol. 275/1-2, 2012. Selected articles in this book are published open access under a CC BY-NC 2.5 license at link.springer.com. For further details, please see the license information in the chapters.
Praise for the First Edition "...[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.
Extreme Space Weather not only allows readers to learn the basics of complex space weather phenomena and future directions for research in space physics and extreme space events. The book begins with a brief overview of space weather, including sunspot cycles, solar winds and geomagnetic fields. From there, the book moves on to extreme space weather phenomena, including mass coronal ejections, solar flares and magnetic storms. The book also includes a discussion of both observed and theoretical extreme events. This book is ideal for students and researchers in geophysics and space physics departments, as well as those in hazard and disaster preparedness. - Focuses on extreme space weather and its impacts on Earth, the Moon and Mars - Includes hazard maps showing data and impacts on Earth from extreme space weather events - Presents research on both observed and theoretical extreme events
Progress in space safety lies in the acceptance of safety design and engineering as an integral part of the design and implementation process for new space systems. Safety must be seen as the principle design driver of utmost importance from the outset of the design process, which is only achieved through a culture change that moves all stakeholders toward front-end loaded safety concepts. This approach entails a common understanding and mastering of basic principles of safety design for space systems at all levels of the program organisation. Fully supported by the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS), written by the leading figures in the industry, with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station, this book provides a comprehensive reference for aerospace engineers in industry. It addresses each of the key elements that impact on space systems safety, including: the space environment (natural and induced); human physiology in space; human rating factors; emergency capabilities; launch propellants and oxidizer systems; life support systems; battery and fuel cell safety; nuclear power generators (NPG) safety; habitat activities; fire protection; safety-critical software development; collision avoidance systems design; operations and on-orbit maintenance. - The only comprehensive space systems safety reference, its must-have status within space agencies and suppliers, technical and aerospace libraries is practically guaranteed - Written by the leading figures in the industry from NASA, ESA, JAXA, (et cetera), with frontline experience from projects ranging from the Apollo missions, Skylab, the Space Shuttle, small and large satellite systems, and the International Space Station - Superb quality information for engineers, programme managers, suppliers and aerospace technologists; fully supported by the IAASS (International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety)
The COSPAR Colloquium on Solar-Terrestrial Magnetic Activity and Space Environment (STMASE) was held in the National Astronomy Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) in Beijing, China in September 10-12, 2001. The meeting was focused on five areas of the solar-terrestrial magnetic activity and space environment studies, including study on solar surface magnetism; solar magnetic activity, dynamical response of the heliosphere; space weather prediction; and space environment exploration and monitoring. A hot topic of space research, CMEs, which are widely believed to be the most important phenomenon of the space environment, is discussed in many papers. Other papers show results of observational and theoretical studies toward better understanding of the complicated image of the magnetic coupling between the Sun and the Earth, although little is still known little its physical background. Space weather prediction, which is very important for a modern society expanding into out-space, is another hot topic of space research. However, a long way is still to go to predict exactly when and where a disaster will happen in the space. In that sense, there is much to do for space environment exploration and monitoring. The manuscripts submitted to this Monograph are divided into the following parts: (1) solar surface magnetism, (2) solar magnetic activity, (3) dynamical response of the heliosphere, (4) space environment exploration and monitoring; and (5) space weather prediction. Papers presented in this meeting but not submitted to this Monograph are listed by title as unpublished papers at the end of this book.
