Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?
Economic Convergence in the Euro Area: Coming Together or Drifting Apart?

Author: Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-01-23

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484338499

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We examine economic convergence among euro area countries on multiple dimensions. While there was nominal convergence of inflation and interest rates, real convergence of per capita income levels has not occurred among the original euro area members since the advent of the common currency. Income convergence stagnated in the early years of the common currency and has reversed in the wake of the global economic crisis. New euro area members, in contrast, have seen real income convergence. Business cycles became more synchronized, but the amplitude of those cycles diverged. Financial cycles showed a similar pattern: sychronizing more over time, but with divergent amplitudes. Income convergence requires reforms boosting productivity growth in lagging countries, while cyclical and financial convergence can be enhanced by measures to improve national and euro area fiscal policies, together with steps to deepen the single market.

Global Business Cycles
Global Business Cycles

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-06-01

Total Pages: 51

ISBN-13: 1451870019

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This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization
Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization

Author: Mr.Romain A Duval

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-04-03

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1475523599

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This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Golden Growth
Golden Growth

Author: Indermit S. Gill

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2012-04-25

Total Pages: 515

ISBN-13: 0821389661

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The public debt crisis in Europe has shaken the confidence not just in the Euro, but in the European model. Aging and uneconomical Europeans are being squeezed between innovative Americans and efficient Asians, it is said. With debt and demographics dragging down them down, one hears that European economies will not grow much unless radically new ways are discovered. The end of complacency in Europe is a good thing, but this loss of confidence could be dangerous. The danger is that in a rush to rejuvenate growth, the attractive attributes of the European development model could be abandoned along with the weak. In fact, the European growth model has many strong points and enviable accomplishments. One can say without exaggeration that Europe had invented a convergence machine , taking in poor countries and helping them become high income economies. World Bank research has identified 27 countries that have grown from middle-income to high income since 1987: a few thanks to the discovery and exploitation of massive natural resources (e.g.: oil in Oman and Trinidad and Tobago), several others like Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, embracing aggressive export-led strategies which involved working and saving a lot, postponing political liberties, and looking out only for themselves. But half of the countries that have grown from middle income to high income Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia are actually in Europe. This is why the European model was so attractive and unique, and why with some well designed efforts it ought to be made right again.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1513536990

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Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

European Business
European Business

Author: Neil Harris

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing

Published: 1999-11-11

Total Pages: 365

ISBN-13: 134915007X

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European Business 2nd edition explores the interaction between European business and their environment using up-to-date case studies. Drawing upon a range of disciplines including economics, organizational behaviour, finance and business strategy, it explores how and why modern businesses behave as they do, and how and why the business environment is changing. A central themem of this substantially updated second edition is the position of Europe within the global economy. Also comprehensively examined is the developing nature of the European Union and the movement towards market economies in Central and Eastern Europe.

One Market, One Money
One Market, One Money

Author: Michael Emerson

Publisher:

Published: 1992

Total Pages: 356

ISBN-13: 9780198773245

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The European Community is negotiating a new treaty to establish the constitutional foundations of an economic and monetary union in the course of the 1990s. This study provides the only comprehensive guide to the economic implications of economic and monetary union. The work of an economist inside the Commission of the European Community, it reflects the considerations influencing the design of the union. The study creates a unique bridge between the insights of modern economic analysis and the work of the policy makers preparing for economic and monetary union.

Economic Convergence and Divergence in Europe
Economic Convergence and Divergence in Europe

Author: Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2003-01-01

Total Pages: 498

ISBN-13: 9781781951286

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Recoge : 1. Introductory session. - 2. Past convergence within the European Union. - 3. Accesion countries : achievements in real convergence. - 4. Accesion countries : how to balance real and nominal convergence challenges for monetary and exchange rate policy. - 5. Does the financial sector contribute to real growth? - 6. Is there somebody left out in the cold? prospects of CEE countries other than current accesion countries. - 7. Policy challenges within the (enlarged) EU : how to foster economic convergence?

Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union
Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union

Author: Francisco Torres

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1993-10-21

Total Pages: 406

ISBN-13: 052144019X

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The Maastricht Treaty, signed in December 1991, set a timetable for the European Community's economic and monetary union (EMU) and clearly defined the institutional policy changes necessary for its achievement. Subsequent developments have demonstrated, however, the importance of many key issues in the transition to EMU that were largely neglected at the time. This volume reports the proceedings of a joint CEPR conference with the Banco de Portugal, held in January 1992. In these papers, leading international experts address the instability of the transition to EMU, the long-run implications of monetary union and the single market for growth and convergence in Europe. They also consider the prospects for inflation and fiscal convergence, regional policy and the integration of financial markets and fiscal systems. Attention focuses on adjustment mechanisms with differentiated shocks, region-specific business cycles and excessive industrial concentration and the cases for a two-speed EMU and fiscal federalism.