Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households' energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the Global Trade Analysis Project 9 data set. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3 C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change.
The social cost of carbon (SC-CO2) is an economic metric intended to provide a comprehensive estimate of the net damages - that is, the monetized value of the net impacts, both negative and positive - from the global climate change that results from a small (1-metric ton) increase in carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions. Under Executive Orders regarding regulatory impact analysis and as required by a court ruling, the U.S. government has since 2008 used estimates of the SC-CO2 in federal rulemakings to value the costs and benefits associated with changes in CO2 emissions. In 2010, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (IWG) developed a methodology for estimating the SC-CO2 across a range of assumptions about future socioeconomic and physical earth systems. Valuing Climate Changes examines potential approaches, along with their relative merits and challenges, for a comprehensive update to the current methodology. This publication also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities to ensure that the SC- CO2 estimates reflect the best available science.
This paper evaluates the global economic consequences of physical climate risks under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5) using firm-level evidence. Firstly, we estimate the historical sectoral productivity changes from chronic climate risks (gradual changes in temperature and precipitation) and extreme climate conditions (representative of heatwaves, coldwaves, droughts, and floods). Secondly, we produce forward-looking sectoral productivity changes for a global multisectoral sample of firms. For floods, these estimates account for the persistent productivity changes from the damage to firms’ physical capital. Thirdly, we assess the macroeconomic impact of these shocks within the global, multisectoral, intertemporal general equilibrium model: G-Cubed. The results indicate that, in the absence of additional adaptation relative to that already achieved by 2020, all the economies would experience substantial losses under the two climate scenarios and the losses would increase with global warming. The results can be useful for policymakers and practitioners interested in conducting climate risk analysis.
The science and management of environmental problems is a vast area, comprising both the natural and social sciences, and the multidisciplinary links often make these issues challenging to comprehend. Economics, Game Theory and International Environmental Agreements: The Ca' Foscari Lectures aims to introduce students to the multidimensional character of international environmental problems in general, and climate change in particular.Ecology, economics, game theory and diplomacy are called upon and brought together in the common framework of a basic mathematical model. Within that framework, and using tools from these four disciplines, the book develops a theory that aims to explain and promote cooperation in international environmental affairs.Other books on the topic tend to be research-oriented volumes of various papers. Instead, this is a book that offers a reasonably-sized synthesis of the multidimensional societal problems of transfrontier pollution, particularly of climate change. It uses mathematical modeling of economic and game theory concepts to examine these environmental issues and demonstrate many results in an accessible fashion. Readers interested in understanding the links between ecology and economics, as well as the connection between economics and institutional decision-making, will find in this text not only answers to many of their queries but also questions for further thinking.
CLIMATE CHANGE and the road to NET-ZERO is a story of how humanity has broken free from the shackles of poverty, suffering, and war and for the first time in human history grown both population and prosperity. It’s also a story of how a single species has reconfigured the natural world, repurposed the Earth’s resources, and begun to re-engineer the climate. The book uses these conflicting narratives to explore the science, economics, technology, and politics of climate change. NET-ZERO blows away the entrenched idea that solving global warming requires a trade-off between the economy and environment, present and future generations, or rich and poor, and reveals why a twenty-year transition to a zero carbon system is a win-win solution for all on planet Earth. Reviews Readers' Favorite Five Stars “An excellent layman's perspective of the climate problem today, how it has evolved over time, and the different approaches to solving the problem. I recommend it highly.” - Mark Z. Jacobson, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University and author of 100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything. “Mathew brings his wide ranging experience of financial markets, particularly in modelling and forecasting, to add a unique insight to the climate challenge. On one hand, helping us understand how fossil fuels drove prosperity and let the world’s population escape the poverty trap, whilst on the other how rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere placed the world at mortal risk. In this book, Mathew’s financial understanding comes to the fore, revealing why we need a sound understanding of economics, climate science and financial modelling to give us the signals we need to act today.” - Mark Campanale, Executive Chairman of the Carbon Tracker Initiative and founder of the ‘unburnable carbon’ capital markets thesis. “Provides a clear understanding of the technical complexities of reaching zero carbon. Hampshire-Waugh approaches the subject with intellectual rigour, boundless curiosity, and compelling story telling. A must read for anyone interested in climate change and net-zero.” - Vincent Gilles, Chief Investment Officer at Clim8 Invest. “The book that says it all and answers all questions. Backed by data, analysis and science, Hampshire-Waugh explains how climate change, if left unchecked, threatens to unravel 200 years of human progress. But it need not end this way. The author shows that building a net zero carbon economy is within human reach through focused innovation, riding down the experience curve and reaching scale in clean energy technologies and solutions. Mathew shows how we can solve climate change and air pollution whilst driving development in the poorest parts of the world, and without compromise for those already accustomed to the highest quality of life.” - Geetu Sharma, Founder of AlphasFuture LLC, a sustainability focused investment business. About the Author Dr Mathew Hampshire-Waugh has spent the last decade working as an equity analyst at a global investment bank. He has worked with the top executives of many multi-billion-dollar companies and built relationships with many of the world’s largest investment managers. Mathew’s work centred on forecasting technology trends, financial performance, and the intrinsic value of companies involved in markets including renewable energy, electric cars, battery technology, and biofuels. Prior to his career in the banking industry, the author gained his doctorate in materials chemistry from University College London, where he worked on novel coatings and nano-materials for use in energy saving glazing and solar panel design. During his doctorate Mathew registered a patent for an efficiency enhancing coating for solar modules, published numerous scientific papers, and engaged in public speaking, consultancy, and media outreach. From the Author I wrote Climate Change and the road to Net-Zero to provide a generalist reader with a clear, comprehensive, and objective take on the issues surrounding climate change and air pollution. The book walks the reader through a history of energy, innovation, and the rise of human civilisation; how scientists have come to understand our past climate and can now forecast future change; the problems economists encounter as they attempt to piece together the potential monetary and social damages from climate inaction; and a technology agnostic assessment of potential climate change solutions (from climate-engineering to mitigation) including their costs, risks, and limitations. The book demonstrates why sustainable technologies such as wind, solar, and batteries get cheaper with scale of production, not time, and why a rapid transition to a fully-fledged net-zero system will end up significantly cheaper than remaining bound to fossil fuels, whilst also avoiding the worst impacts of climate change, and preventing nearly eight million premature deaths each year from air pollution. I hope Climate Change and the road to Net-Zero delivers an understanding of humanity’s relationship with Earth that is as intriguing as Simon Lewis and Mark Maslin’s The Human Planet, or Yuval Noah Harari’s Sapiens. I very much hope too that the book conveys the passion and call to action of David Wallace-Well’s The Uninhabitable Earth, coupled with the sober economic analysis of The Climate Casino by William Nordhaus or Capital in the 21st century by Thomas Piketty, and that it provides the technical rigour of Sustainable Energy Without The Hot Air by David MacKay, the rationality of Hans Rosling’s Factfulness, and the eternal hope of The Future We Choose by Christiana Figueres and Tom Rivett-Carnac. I believe net-zero will be cheaper, cleaner, safer, more reliable, more sustainable, and will create more employment than if we remain bound to fossil fuels. After reading the book, I hope you will agree. Mathew Hampshire-Waugh, Author.
A Climate Change Damage Function (CCDF) is a reduced form relationship linking macroeconomic aggregates (e.g., potential GDP) to climate indicators (e.g., average temperature levels). This function is used in a variety of studies about climate change impacts and policy analysis. However, despite the fact that this function is key in determining results in many integrated assessment models, it is not typically calibrated in a consistent and rigorous way. This paper presents a novel approach, in which several different impacts of climate change are first assessed by means of a full-fledged computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, then results are interpolated to get a simple relationship of the CCDF type. The estimated CCDF is compared with other popular functions used in the literature, to highlight the possible implications associated with the alternative adoption of this functional relationship.
Banks in Africa are weathering the COVID-19 pandemic well and showing a lot of creativity to overcome the crisis's problems. But the war in Ukraine is causing new concerns. With interest rates rising in many countries and bond funding becoming more expensive, a significant number of banks are worried about rising financing costs. These issues and more are covered in the new Finance in Africa report, based on an annual survey of banks across the continent and supported by Making Finance Work for Africa, an initiative helping more people get loans across the continent. We surveyed 70 banks in sub-Saharan Africa from April to June in 2022 to find out if the war is hurting their business and to learn their views on climate lending, access to finance for women and the accelerating digitisation of the financial sector.
"While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."
The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
