Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework
Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Author: Romain Lafarguette

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-02-12

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1513569406

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This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

Exchange Rate Economics
Exchange Rate Economics

Author: Ronald MacDonald

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 1134838220

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''In summary, the book is valuable as a textbook both at the advanced undergraduate level and at the graduate level. It is also very useful for the economist who wants to be brought up-to-date on theoretical and empirical research on exchange rate behaviour.'' ""Journal of International Economics""

Modern Exchange-rate Regimes, Stabilisation Programmes and Co-ordination of Macroeconomic Policies
Modern Exchange-rate Regimes, Stabilisation Programmes and Co-ordination of Macroeconomic Policies

Author: Maria Luiza Falcão Silva

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2018-08-17

Total Pages: 347

ISBN-13: 0429837208

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Published in 1999, this work analyzes the phenomenon of macroeconomic adjustment, with special emphasis on selected Latin American countries facing stabilization programmes. It provides a historical description of the origins, functioning and collapse of exchange-rate regimes from the international classical gold standard period to modern arrangements. The author supports the argument that systemic asymmetries in the worldwide adjustment mechanism are inherent in the international monetary system. The recent theoretical literature dealing with the rules vs discretion debate and its interaction with the credibility issue is reviewed. This topic is intrinsically related to the dispute over the appropriate role of exchange-rate anchors in disinflation programmes. Against a background of academic dispute between advocates of exchange-rate prescriptions and monetary conceptions, the contrasting views of different theorists regarding the choice of exchange rate regimes are presented and assessed. Finally, a comparative analysis of recent experiments in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico with exchange-rate based disinflation stabilization programmes is undertaken. The problems that have arisen while establishing new institutional arrangements, such as new currency or a policy rule for monetary base creation, are examined.

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization

Author: Ole Roste

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-09-08

Total Pages: 198

ISBN-13: 1351504878

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As a fundamental review and critique of activist economic policies, this book is a unique contribution to classical political economy. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization" is about macroeconomic stabilization policy, with emphasis on the value of a distinct national monetary policy to growth. Ole Bjorn Roste's argument is for public officials to restrain themselves in the pursuit of policy. As the author notes: when you know less, you should do less.The history of modern macroeconomics started in 1936 with the publication of Keynes' "General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money". The problems of the Great depression of the 1930s paved the way for a change of focus, from the long run to economic fluctuations in the short run, and from nominal to real variables, such as unemployment and aggregate output.Keynes offered clear policy implications in tune with the times. Because economic adjustment was slow, waiting for the economy to recover by itself was irresponsible. Particularly fiscal policy was essential to return to high employment. Monetary policy could affect aggregate demand through Interest rates, but was less important. Roste discusses the role of monetary policy, starting out with the implications of the theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs). This is followed by estimates of the output loss associated with disinflation policy (the sacrifice ratio) for six OECD economies. Further, Roste models the dynamic adjustment to negative, local labor-market shocks, with particular relevance to Scandinavia, in a final section.The idea that governments should pursue stabilizing fiscal or monetary policies with regard to real variables is often taken for granted by the public, if not by economists. Among the reasons for skepticism, is the presence of differing views on how economies really work, that the state of a given economy becomes known only after a time lag, and that economic agents react to policy and expectations of policy. For these reasons, the effects of policy are generally uncertain. This book explains why the role of history is critical to the study of macroeconomics.p>

Handbook of Exchange Rates
Handbook of Exchange Rates

Author: Jessica James

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2012-05-29

Total Pages: 674

ISBN-13: 1118445775

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Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.