"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
In the crowded field of climate change reports, 'WDR 2010' uniquely: emphasizes development; takes an integrated look at adaptation and mitigation; highlights opportunities in the changing competitive landscape; and proposes policy solutions grounded in analytic work and in the context of the political economy of reform.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
. . . this book gives a good overview of major challenges facing policy makers, researchers and ultimately humankind in dealing with climate change. . . The reader also gets a good understanding of how fragmented and transversal the issues of climate change and sustainable development are. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture . . . a unified, useful and stimulating book which should act as a springboard for further work into what is a very topical and extremely important issue for everyone in the world, not just academics and policymakers. This book serves its intended audience but also deserves to be more widely read. World Entrepreneurship Society Too often, writings on climate change are placed into two categories: climate-change deniers, and climate-change supporters. What this timely and insightful collection of Mohamed Salih s does, is to problematise the issue; taking the debate to a level where it desperately needs to be; asking the thorny questions of how do the politics and international relations of climate impact upon the most vulnerable; the least-affluent; the dwellers of the majority world. In short, Salih challenges us: How did the climate change about climate-change . The responses of his contributors are salient, to-the-point sometimes disturbing but always thought-provoking. Timothy Doyle, Keele University, UK Editing the proceedings of a symposium into a cogent and coherent book is no easy task. This book, a tribute to Professor Opschoor is no exception; with disperse contributions of some highly acclaimed authors covering a wide spectrum of themes. It is a credit to Professor Salih s insight to string them together in the introductory chapter and entice the reader to read on. This book has food for thought on many fronts, reaching far beyond climate change, as did the oeuvre of Hans Opschoor. . . an instructive read. Paul Vlek, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn, Germany It is difficult, if not impossible, to formulate and implement sustainable policy without first understanding the dynamic relationships between nature, society, economics and technology, and research plays a pivotal role in this regard. Climate Change and Sustainable Development is an important book which deals with these issues in the context of climate change and the changing global context of development. It alerts us to the relationship climate change has with two urgent tasks: poverty reduction and sustainable development, which require efforts that span countries, regions and communities. In this interdependent world, argue the authors, a shared vision and common effort are vital to sustaining our life support system. It is a must read. Jacqueline Cramer, The Netherlands Minister for Spatial Planning and the Environment This unique book provides cutting-edge knowledge and analyses of the consequences that climate change will have for sustainable development and poverty reduction within the context of global development. Exploring alternative resource management approaches including federal resource management governance, ecosystem services, digital dematerialization, ecological cities, biofuels versus food, and children and climate change, this innovative volume provides fresh insights on the human condition with regards to the current debates on climate change. The distinguished contributors examine climate change induced processes that present profound challenges to sustainable development and poverty reduction at the local, national and global levels. This groundbreaking study will be a welcome addition for graduate and post-graduate students in development and environmental studies. It will also have great appeal to scientists, policy-makers and researchers in these fields.
Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.
A deepening understanding of the importance of climate change has caused a recent and rapid increase in the number of climate change or climate-related laws. Trends in Climate Change Legislation offers an astute analysis of the political, institutional and economic factors that have motivated this surge, placing it into context.
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Climate change threatens the economy of the United States in myriad ways, including increased flooding and storm damage, altered crop yields, lost labor productivity, higher crime, reshaped public-health patterns, and strained energy systems, among many other effects. Combining the latest climate models, state-of-the-art econometric research on human responses to climate, and cutting-edge private-sector risk-assessment tools, Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus crafts a game-changing profile of the economic risks of climate change in the United States. This prospectus is based on a critically acclaimed independent assessment of the economic risks posed by climate change commissioned by the Risky Business Project. With new contributions from Karen Fisher-Vanden, Michael Greenstone, Geoffrey Heal, Michael Oppenheimer, and Nicholas Stern and Bob Ward, as well as a foreword from Risky Business cochairs Michael Bloomberg, Henry Paulson, and Thomas Steyer, the book speaks to scientists, researchers, scholars, activists, and policy makers. It depicts the distribution of escalating climate-change risk across the country and assesses its effects on aspects of the economy as varied as hurricane damages and violent crime. Beautifully illustrated and accessibly written, this book is an essential tool for helping businesses and governments prepare for the future.
