This Letort Paper has four purposes. First, is to survey the impact of six of the world's leading emerging market countries over approximately the next 2 decades on U.S. global security interests. Second, is to evaluate the trajectory of defense industrial capabilities in these countries. Third, is to describe the impact that armaments production and transfers deriving from these countries may have on the global security landscape and U.S. economic and political interests. Fourth, is to provide recommendations for the U.S. military, particularly the U.S. Army, and government officials to prepare for the security and industrial implications of this changing global environment.
One defining phenomenon of the 21st century to date is the ascent of new countries in the global economic, political, and security environment. While the so-called BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) receive most of the attention in business, government, security, and media circles, several other countries have become influential regional--if not yet global--players, including Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey. [...] To the extent that economic power translates into political and military power, the United States will be faced with multidimensional challenges in the years to come. [This report] evaluates the implications for the U.S. and global defense industries. [...] This [paper] starts out with an overview of global arms production and trade. From there, the direction turns to BRICS and Turkey, with an overview of each country's most significant current issues, termed 'macro-variables.' [...] The six countries analyzed in this [paper] represent the primary non-Western countries that are active in either importing or exporting weapons or both, and either currently have or hold the conditions to develop a vibrant defense industrial base over the next decade or two. This evaluation is followed by an overview of each country's defense industrial base, with an assessment of their capabilities and economic orientation regarding domestic versus global sales and, at the international level, the likely recipients based on the global interests of these countries. Four recommendations are made to address the developments in these six countries.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Over the last decade, the United States' position as the world's most powerful state has appeared increasingly unstable. The US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, non-traditional security threats, global economic instability, the apparent spread of authoritarianism and illiberal politics, together with the rise of emerging powers from the Global South have led many to predict the end of Western dominance on the global stage. This book brings together scholars from international relations, economics, history, sociology and area studies to debate the future of US leadership in the international system. The book analyses the past, present and future of US hegemony in key regions in the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, Europe and Africa – while also examining the dynamic interactions of US hegemony with other established, rising and re-emerging powers such as Russia, China, Japan, India, Turkey and South Africa. American Hegemony and the Rise of Emerging Powers explores how changes in the patterns of cooperation and conflict among states, regional actors and transnational non-state actors have affected the rise of emerging global powers and the suggested decline of US leadership. Scholars, students and policy practitioners who are interested in the future of the US-led international system, the rise of emerging powers from the Global South and related global policy challenges will find this multidisciplinary volume an invaluable guide to the shifting position of American hegemony.
Is the United States still a "superpower"? How are the rising powers establishing themselves in international politics and security? What is the future of global stability? For over a decade, Bruce Jones has had a front-row seat as the emerging powers—principally China, India, and Brazil, but also Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, and others—thrust themselves onto the global stage. From Delhi to Doha to Beijing to Brasilia, he's met with the politicians, diplomats, business leaders, and scholars of those powers as they craft their strategies for rising influence—and with senior American officials as they forge their response. In Still Ours to Lead, Jones tells a nuanced story of American leadership. He artfully examines the tension between the impulse to rival the United States and the incentives for restraint and cooperation among the rising powers. That balance of rivalry and restraint provides the United States with a continued ability to solve problems and to manage crises at roughly the same rate as when American dominance was unquestioned. Maintaining the balance is central to the question of whether we will live in a stable or unstable system in the period to come. But it just so happens that this challenge plays to America's unique strength—its unparalleled ability to pull together broad and disparate coalitions for action. To succeed, America must adapt its leadership to new realities.
Examines the changing nature of power since the Cold War, the new ways in which it is exercised, and how those changes impact America's role in the world.
In an ever-changing world, where the consequences of our actions ripple across borders, addressing global challenges has become imperative. Are you ready to embark on a thought-provoking journey that unravels the intricate interplay of climate change, rising powers, and the future? Look no further than "Global Challenges: Climate Change, Rising Powers, and the Future," a groundbreaking book that illuminates the complexities of our global landscape and offers insights into shaping a sustainable and cooperative future. Delve into the captivating pages of this comprehensive guide and discover the far-reaching impacts of climate change. Explore the scientific evidence behind this existential threat and understand its implications for our environment, economies, and societies. Witness the urgent need for international cooperation and global governance as we confront this immense challenge head-on. But climate change is just the beginning. Prepare to be captivated by the rise of new powers that are reshaping the global order. With a focus on India, Brazil, and Turkey, you'll uncover the political, economic, and social dynamics propelling these nations towards the center stage of global affairs. Gain valuable insights into their growing influence, their struggles with democratic governance, and their unique roles in regional and international relations. As you navigate through the chapters, you'll witness the transformative power of energy policies and the transition towards a sustainable future. Uncover the complexities of our global energy landscape, the potential of renewable energy sources, and the challenges associated with fossil fuel dependency. Explore the role of international cooperation in shaping energy policies and driving collective action towards a greener and more prosperous world. But it doesn't stop there. Brace yourself for a glimpse into the future. Discover the technological advancements and disruptive innovations that will shape our societies and economies. Peer into the shifting global order and the redistribution of power, and explore the complexities of migration and the refugee crisis. Witness the rise of social movements and activism, and explore their impact on the 21st-century world. As you reach the conclusion, you'll be equipped with a comprehensive understanding of the key insights on global challenges. Reflect on the crucial role of individuals, governments, and the international community in charting a sustainable and cooperative path forward. Be inspired by the call to action that resonates throughout the book, urging you to be an agent of change and contribute to a better future. "Global Challenges: Climate Change, Rising Powers, and the Future" is an indispensable resource for scholars, policymakers, and curious minds alike. Its engaging narrative, well-researched content, and thought-provoking analysis will challenge your perspectives, ignite your passion for change, and empower you to shape a world that thrives amidst global challenges. Are you ready to join the movement? The future is calling.
Current debates on emerging powers as foreign aid donors often fail to examine the myriad geopolitical, geoeconomic and geocultural tensions that influence policies of Official Development Assistance (ODA). This book advocates a regional geopolitical approach to explaining donor-donor relationships and provides a multidisciplinary critical assessment of the contemporary debates on emerging powers and foreign aid, bringing together economic and geopolitical approaches in the light of the 2015 completion of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Moving away from established debates assessing the advantages and disadvantages of foreign aid, this book challenges the current geopolitical assumptions of the emerging powers concerning issues such as 'south-south' solidarity, shared development experience and 'multipolarity'. It analyses how donor governments 'sell' aid to recipients through enabling different cultural assumptions and soft power narratives of national identity and provides empirical evidence on agendas such as aid effectiveness, aid for trade, public-private partnerships, and green growth aid. The book examines the role of, and relationships between, the leading traditional and emerging power Asian donors specifically, and explores the different and contested perspectives and patterns of ODA policy through an alternative account of emerging power foreign aid to leading African and Asian recipients. This book provides a valuable resource for postgraduate students and practitioners across disciplines such as development economics and geopolitics of development, uniquely approaching the debate from the perspective of emerging powers and donors.
Assessments of China's importance on the world stage usually focus on a single dimension of China's increasing power, rather than on the multiple sources of China's rise, including its economic might and the continuing modernization of its military. This book offers multiple analytical perspectives—constructivist, liberal, neorealist—on the significance of the many dimensions of China's regional and global influence. Distinguished authors consider the likelihood of conflict and peaceful accommodation as China grows ever stronger. They look at the changing position of China "from the inside": How do Chinese policymakers evaluate the contemporary international order and what are the regional and global implications of that worldview? The authors also address the implications of China's increasing power for Chinese policymaking and for the foreign policies of Korea, Japan, and the United States.
