Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Author: Swarnali Ahmed

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-30

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1513560972

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This paper analyzes how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find some suggestive evidence that the elasticity of real manufacturing exports to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that GVC participation reduces the REER elasticity of manufacturing exports by 22 percent, on average.


Global Trade and the Dollar

Global Trade and the Dollar

Author: Ms.Emine Boz

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-11-13

Total Pages: 66

ISBN-13: 148432885X

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We document that the U.S. dollar exchange rate drives global trade prices and volumes. Using a newly constructed data set of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs, we establish the following facts: 1) The dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions. U.S. monetary policy induced dollar fluctuations have high pass-through into bilateral import prices. 2) Bilateral non-commodities terms of trade are essentially uncorrelated with bilateral exchange rates. 3) The strength of the U.S. dollar is a key predictor of rest-of-world aggregate trade volume and consumer/producer price inflation. A 1 percent U.S. dollar appreciation against all other currencies in the world predicts a 0.6–0.8 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. 4) Using a novel Bayesian semiparametric hierarchical panel data model, we estimate that the importing country’s share of imports invoiced in dollars explains 15 percent of the variance of dollar pass-through/elasticity across country pairs. Our findings strongly support the dominant currency paradigm as opposed to the traditional Mundell-Fleming pricing paradigms.


Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Author: Nagwa Riad

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-01-15

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13: 1463973101

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Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.


World Development Report 2020

World Development Report 2020

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2019-11-19

Total Pages: 545

ISBN-13: 1464814953

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Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.


Taxation in the Global Economy

Taxation in the Global Economy

Author: Assaf Razin

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2008-04-15

Total Pages: 456

ISBN-13: 0226705889

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The increasing globalization of economic activity is bringing an awareness of the international consequences of tax policy. The move toward the common European market in 1992 raises the important question of how inefficiencies in the various tax systems—such as self-defeating tax competition among member nations—will be addressed. As barriers to trade and investment tumble, cross-national differences in tax structures may loom larger and create incentives for relocations of capital and labor; and efficient and equitable income tax systems are becoming more difficult to administer and enforce, particularly because of the growing importance of multinational enterprises. What will be the role of tax policy in this more integrated world economy? Assaf Razin and Joel Slemrod gathered experts from two traditionally distinct specialties, taxation and international economics, to lay the groundwork for understanding these issues, which will require the attention of scholars and policymakers for years to come. Contributors describe the basic provisions of the U.S. tax code with respect to international transactions, highlighting the changes contained in the U.S. Tax Reform Act of 1986; explore the ways that tax systems influence the decisions of multinationals; examine the effect of taxation on trade patterns and capital flows; and discuss the implications of the opening world economy for the design of optimal international tax policy. The papers will prove valuable not only to scholars and students, but to government economists and international tax lawyers as well.


Uncovering Value Added In Trade: New Approaches To Analyzing Global Value Chains

Uncovering Value Added In Trade: New Approaches To Analyzing Global Value Chains

Author: Yuqing Xing

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2015-07-13

Total Pages: 181

ISBN-13: 9814656372

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Value chain trade has challenged economic implications of conventional trade statistics and transformed bilateral trade relationships into multilaterals. Conventional trade statistics exaggerate trade volumes and bilateral trade imbalances. It is imperative to measure trade in value-added and examine trade relations in the context of global value chains. This book is a collection of research papers on new approaches to measure trade in value added and the role of global value chains in modern international trade. It introduces the input output method for measuring trade and a direct approach for measuring the domestic value added of the People's Republic of China — the center of global assembly. In addition, it shows how to analyze trade relations in the context of global value chains.


Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development

Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVCs on Economic Development

Author: World Trade Organization

Publisher: World Trade Organization

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9789287041258

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This report is about a huge contribution to our deepening understanding of what the global economy really means and how it is changing. The report helpfully distinguishes elements of an economy that are tradable and the large set that are non-tradable. Clearly the tradables set is expanding with the support of enabling technology. The report argues that connectivity in the networks that define the evolving architecture of GVCs is important. This Global Value Chain Development Report is the result of intensive and detailed work in assembling and analyzing data on the structure of economies and on how they are linked. It creates a much clearer picture of evolving patterns of independence. It also presents a much clearer picture of comparative advantage. --Publisher description.


Calculating Trade in Value Added

Calculating Trade in Value Added

Author: Aqib Aslam

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-08-07

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1484314484

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This paper sets out the key concepts necessary to calculate trade in value added using input-output tables. We explain the basic structure of an input-output table and the matrix algebra behind the computation of trade in value added statistics. Specifically, we compute measures of domestic value-added, foreign value added, and forward and backward linkages, as well as measures of both a country’s participation and position in global value chains. We work in detail with an example of a global input-output table for 3 countries each with 4 sectors, provided by the Eora Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO) database. The aim is to provide an introduction to the analysis of global value chains for use in policy work. An accompanying suite of Matlab codes are provided that can be used with the full set of Eora MRIO tables.


China's Growing Role in World Trade

China's Growing Role in World Trade

Author: Robert C. Feenstra

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2010-03-10

Total Pages: 603

ISBN-13: 0226239721

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In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise—the loss of jobs, for example—others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, China's Growing Role in World Trade undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment. This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.