Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance

Author: Arvind Subramanian

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 253

ISBN-13: 0881326410

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By most accounts, China has quickly grown into the second largest economy in the world. In this controversial new book, Subramanian argues that China has already become the most economically dominant country in the world in terms of wealth, trade and finance. Its dominance and eclipsing of US global economic power is more imminent, more broad-based and larger in magnitude than anyone has anticipated. Subramanian compares the economic dominance of China with that of the two previous economic superpowers--the United States and the United Kingdom--and highlights similarities and differences. One corollary is that the fundamentals are strong for the Chinese currency to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. The final chapter forecasts how the international economic system is likely to evolve as a result of Chinese dominance.


Eclipse

Eclipse

Author: Arvind Subramanian

Publisher:

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780881326062

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In his new book, Arvind Subramanian presents the following possibilities: What if, contrary to common belief, China's economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi's takeover of the dollar as the world's reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States's economic preeminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China's to determine? Subramanian's analysis is based on a new index of economic dominance grounded in a historical perspective. His examination makes use of real-world examples, comparing China's rise with the past hegemonies of Great Britain and the United States. His attempt to quantify and project economic and currency dominance leads him to the conclusion that China's dominance is not only more imminent, but also broader in scope, and much larger in magnitude, than is currently imagined. He explores the profound effect this might have on the United States, as well as on the global financial and trade system. Subramanian concludes with a series of policy proposals for other nations to reconcile China's rise with continued openness in the global economic order, and to insure against China becoming a malign hegemon.


China's Rise

China's Rise

Author: C. Fred Bergsten

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 292

ISBN-13: 0881324345

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Helps the United States and the rest of the world better comprehend the facts and dynamics underpinning China's rise. This book analyzes the data on China's economy, foreign and domestic policy, and national security.


Who Needs to Open the Capital Account

Who Needs to Open the Capital Account

Author: Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: Peterson Institute

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 147

ISBN-13: 0881326488

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Most countries emerged from the Second World War with capital accounts that were closed to the rest of the world. Since then, a process of capital account opening has occurred, with the result that all developed and many emerging-market countries now have capital accounts that are both de facto and de jure open, while many developing countries also have de facto openness. This study examines this in part by considering some of the first lessons from the current global financial crisis. This crisis may change the terms of the debate on capital account liberalization in a deeper and more lasting way than any of the crises of the past two decades because it may mark a reversal in the secular trend of financial liberalization at the core of the international financial system. The current crisis also raises new questions about the appropriate policy responses to boom-bust dynamics in domestic credit and in international credit flows. Intellectual consistency is needed between the domestic and international dimensions of financial regulation and the policies aimed at dealing with boom-bust dynamics in domestic and international credit.


The State Strikes Back

The State Strikes Back

Author: Nicholas R. Lardy

Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics

Published: 2019-01-01

Total Pages: 251

ISBN-13: 0881327387

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China's extraordinarily rapid economic growth since 1978, driven by market-oriented reforms, has set world records and continued unabated, despite predictions of an inevitable slowdown. In The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?, renowned China scholar Nicholas R. Lardy argues that China's future growth prospects could be equally bright but are shadowed by the specter of resurgent state dominance, which has begun to diminish the vital role of the market and private firms in China's economy. Lardy's book arrives in timely fashion as a sequel to his pathbreaking Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, published by PIIE in 2014. This book mobilizes new data to trace how President Xi Jinping has consistently championed state-owned or controlled enterprises, encouraging local political leaders and financial institutions to prop up ailing, underperforming companies that are a drag on China's potential. As with his previous book, Lardy's perspective departs from conventional wisdom, especially in its contention that China could achieve a high growth rate for the next two decades—if it reverses course and returns to the path of market-oriented reforms.


Markets Over Mao

Markets Over Mao

Author: Nicholas R. Lardy

Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics

Published: 2014-09-10

Total Pages: 302

ISBN-13: 0881326933

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China's transition to a market economy has propelled its remarkable economic growth since the late 1970s. In this book, Nicholas R. Lardy, one of the world's foremost experts on the Chinese economy, traces the increasing role of market forces and refutes the widely advanced argument that Chinese economic progress rests on the government's control of the economy's "commanding heights." In another challenge to conventional wisdom, Lardy finds little evidence that the decade of the leadership of former President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao (2003–13) dramatically increased the role and importance of state-owned firms, as many people argue. This book offers powerfully persuasive evidence that the major sources of China's growth in the future will be similarly market rather than state-driven, with private firms providing the major source of economic growth, the sole source of job creation, and the major contributor to China's still growing role as a global trader. Lardy does, however, call on China to deregulate and increase competition in those portions of the economy where state firms remain protected, especially in energy and finance.


China in the World Economy

China in the World Economy

Author: Nicholas R. Lardy

Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics

Published: 1994

Total Pages: 184

ISBN-13:

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China is playing a growing role in the world economy. It is one of the world's fastest growing countries and is the tenth largest exporter. China is also a significant recipient of foreign aid and a major borrower on international capital markets. Even more significantly, it is attracting vast amounts of foreign direct investment. China in the World Economy examines the implications of China's emergence as a major player in the world economy. Its integration into the international economic order poses major difficulties for the rest of the world. These problems including bringing China's mixed market/centrally planned economy into the GATT, adapting to competition from labor-intensive Chinese exports, encouraging further market-oriented reform, and accommodating its demand for international capital. But China's participation in the global economy also offers important opportunities for trade, investment and international cooperation to promote world peace and stability. Nicholas Lardy anticipates that China will continue on a rapid growth path, thus magnifying the policy challenges and opportunities for its trading partners, including the U. S. He recommends a series of steps to facilitate China's full participation in the world economy.


China's Influence and American Interests

China's Influence and American Interests

Author: Larry Diamond

Publisher: Hoover Press

Published: 2019-08-01

Total Pages: 223

ISBN-13: 0817922865

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While Americans are generally aware of China's ambitions as a global economic and military superpower, few understand just how deeply and assertively that country has already sought to influence American society. As the authors of this volume write, it is time for a wake-up call. In documenting the extent of Beijing's expanding influence operations inside the United States, they aim to raise awareness of China's efforts to penetrate and sway a range of American institutions: state and local governments, academic institutions, think tanks, media, and businesses. And they highlight other aspects of the propagandistic “discourse war” waged by the Chinese government and Communist Party leaders that are less expected and more alarming, such as their view of Chinese Americans as members of a worldwide Chinese diaspora that owes undefined allegiance to the so-called Motherland.Featuring ideas and policy proposals from leading China specialists, China's Influence and American Interests argues that a successful future relationship requires a rebalancing toward greater transparency, reciprocity, and fairness. Throughout, the authors also strongly state the importance of avoiding casting aspersions on Chinese and on Chinese Americans, who constitute a vital portion of American society. But if the United States is to fare well in this increasingly adversarial relationship with China, Americans must have a far better sense of that country's ambitions and methods than they do now.


Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

Interpreting China's Grand Strategy

Author: Michael D. Swaine

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2000-03-22

Total Pages: 305

ISBN-13: 0833048309

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China's continuing rapid economic growth and expanding involvement in global affairs pose major implications for the power structure of the international system. To more accurately and fully assess the significance of China's emergence for the United States and the global community, it is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of Chinese security thought and behavior. This study addresses such questions as: What are China's most fundamental national security objectives? How has the Chinese state employed force and diplomacy in the pursuit of these objectives over the centuries? What security strategy does China pursue today and how will it evolve in the future? The study asserts that Chinese history, the behavior of earlier rising powers, and the basic structure and logic of international power relations all suggest that, although a strong China will likely become more assertive globally, this possibility is unlikely to emerge before 2015-2020 at the earliest. To handle this situation, the study argues that the United States should adopt a policy of realistic engagement with China that combines efforts to pursue cooperation whenever possible; to prevent, if necessary, the acquisition by China of capabilities that would threaten America's core national security interests; and to remain prepared to cope with the consequences of a more assertive China.