Demystifying Climate Models

Demystifying Climate Models

Author: Andrew Gettelman

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-09

Total Pages: 282

ISBN-13: 3662489597

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This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.


Earth System Modelling - Volume 2

Earth System Modelling - Volume 2

Author: Luca Bonaventura

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2011-10-08

Total Pages: 102

ISBN-13: 3642238319

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Collected articles in this series are dedicated to the development and use of software for earth system modelling and aims at bridging the gap between IT solutions and climate science. The particular topic covered in this volume addresses the historical development, state of the art and future perspectives of the mathematical techniques employed for numerical approximation of the equations describing atmospheric and oceanic motion. Furthermore, it describes the main computer science and software engineering strategies employed to turn these mathematical methods into effective tools for understanding earth's climate and forecasting its evolution. These methods and the resulting computer algorithms lie at the core of earth system models and are essential for their effectiveness and predictive skill.


Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems

Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems

Author: Rudy Slingerland

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-03-28

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13: 1400839114

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A concise guide to representing complex Earth systems using simple dynamic models Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems gives earth scientists the essential skills for translating chemical and physical systems into mathematical and computational models that provide enhanced insight into Earth's processes. Using a step-by-step method, the book identifies the important geological variables of physical-chemical geoscience problems and describes the mechanisms that control these variables. This book is directed toward upper-level undergraduate students, graduate students, researchers, and professionals who want to learn how to abstract complex systems into sets of dynamic equations. It shows students how to recognize domains of interest and key factors, and how to explain assumptions in formal terms. The book reveals what data best tests ideas of how nature works, and cautions against inadequate transport laws, unconstrained coefficients, and unfalsifiable models. Various examples of processes and systems, and ample illustrations, are provided. Students using this text should be familiar with the principles of physics, chemistry, and geology, and have taken a year of differential and integral calculus. Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems helps earth scientists develop a philosophical framework and strong foundations for conceptualizing complex geologic systems. Step-by-step lessons for representing complex Earth systems as dynamical models Explains geologic processes in terms of fundamental laws of physics and chemistry Numerical solutions to differential equations through the finite difference technique A philosophical approach to quantitative problem-solving Various examples of processes and systems, including the evolution of sandy coastlines, the global carbon cycle, and much more Professors: A supplementary Instructor's Manual is available for this book. It is restricted to teachers using the text in courses. For information on how to obtain a copy, refer to: http://press.princeton.edu/class_use/solutions.html


Earth System Analysis

Earth System Analysis

Author: Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 548

ISBN-13: 3642523544

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Since this new science is of an unprecedented interdisciplinary nature, the book does not merely take stock of its numerous ingredients, but also delivers their multifaceted integration. The resulting master paradigm - the co-evolution of nature and anthroposphere within a geo-cybernetic continuum of processes - is based on a structured manifold of partial paradigms with their specific ranges. Most importantly, this serves the scientific foundation of a meaningful, safe and efficient environment and development management for solving the most burning questions concerning humankind and its natural environment. The more concrete elucidation of the natural and human dimensions, as well as various attempts and instruments of integration are represented in the different parts of the book, while the didactic quality is heightened by many allegoric illustrations.


Earth System Modelling - Volume 1

Earth System Modelling - Volume 1

Author: Kamal Puri

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-03-20

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 3642365973

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Collected articles in this series are dedicated to the development and use of software for earth system modelling and aims at bridging the gap between IT solutions and climate science. The particular topic covered in this volume addresses the usefulness of coupling infrastructures and data management, strategies and tools for pre- and post-processing, and coupling software and strategies in regional and global coupled climate models. This first part in the series of 6 books sets the scene for the following volumes.


Earth System Modeling Framework

Earth System Modeling Framework

Author: Gerardus Blokdyk

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

Published: 2018-05-11

Total Pages: 142

ISBN-13: 9781718912311

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Have all basic functions of Earth System Modeling Framework been defined? Can Management personnel recognize the monetary benefit of Earth System Modeling Framework? How can we improve Earth System Modeling Framework? Who will be responsible for documenting the Earth System Modeling Framework requirements in detail? How will the Earth System Modeling Framework team and the organization measure complete success of Earth System Modeling Framework? Defining, designing, creating, and implementing a process to solve a challenge or meet an objective is the most valuable role... In EVERY group, company, organization and department. Unless you are talking a one-time, single-use project, there should be a process. Whether that process is managed and implemented by humans, AI, or a combination of the two, it needs to be designed by someone with a complex enough perspective to ask the right questions. Someone capable of asking the right questions and step back and say, 'What are we really trying to accomplish here? And is there a different way to look at it?' This Self-Assessment empowers people to do just that - whether their title is entrepreneur, manager, consultant, (Vice-)President, CxO etc... - they are the people who rule the future. They are the person who asks the right questions to make Earth System Modeling Framework investments work better. This Earth System Modeling Framework All-Inclusive Self-Assessment enables You to be that person. All the tools you need to an in-depth Earth System Modeling Framework Self-Assessment. Featuring new and updated case-based questions, organized into seven core areas of process design, this Self-Assessment will help you identify areas in which Earth System Modeling Framework improvements can be made. In using the questions you will be better able to: - diagnose Earth System Modeling Framework projects, initiatives, organizations, businesses and processes using accepted diagnostic standards and practices - implement evidence-based best practice strategies aligned with overall goals - integrate recent advances in Earth System Modeling Framework and process design strategies into practice according to best practice guidelines Using a Self-Assessment tool known as the Earth System Modeling Framework Scorecard, you will develop a clear picture of which Earth System Modeling Framework areas need attention. Your purchase includes access details to the Earth System Modeling Framework self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows your organization exactly what to do next. Your exclusive instant access details can be found in your book.


Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon

Assessment of Approaches to Updating the Social Cost of Carbon

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-03-26

Total Pages: 73

ISBN-13: 0309391458

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The social cost of carbon (SCC) for a given year is an estimate, in dollars, of the present discounted value of the damage caused by a 1-metric ton increase in CO2 emissions into the atmosphere in that year; or equivalently, the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions by the same amount in that given year. The SCC is intended to provide a comprehensive measure of the monetized value of the net damages from global climate change from an additional unit of CO2, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, energy use, human health effects, and property damages from increased flood risk. Federal agencies use the SCC to value the CO2 emissions impacts of various policies including emission and fuel economy standards for vehicles, regulations of industrial air pollutants from industrial manufacturing, emission standards for power plants and solid waste incineration, and appliance energy efficiency standards. There are significant challenges to estimating a dollar value that reflects all the physical, human, ecological, and economic impacts of climate change. Recognizing that the models and scientific data underlying the SCC estimates evolve and improve over time, the federal government made a commitment to provide regular updates to the estimates. To assist with future revisions of the SCC, the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (IWG) requested the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine complete a study that assessed the merits and challenges of a limited near-term update to the SCC and of a comprehensive update of the SCC to ensure that the estimates reflect the best available science. This interim report focuses on near-term updates to the SCC estimates.


The Copenhagen Diagnosis

The Copenhagen Diagnosis

Author: 26 Leading Scientists

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2011-04-25

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780123869999

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The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a summary of the global warming peer reviewed science since 2007. Produced by a team of 26 scientists led by the University of New South Wales Climate Research Centre, the Diagnosis convincingly proves that the effects of global warming have gotten worse in the last three years. It is a timely update to the UN's Intercontinental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Fourth Assessment document (IPCC AR4). The report places the blame for the century long temperature increase on human factors and says the turning point "must come soon". If we are to limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial values, global emissions must peak by 2020 at the latest and then decline rapidly. The scientists warned that waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized. By 2050 we will effectively need to be in a post-carbon economy if we are to avoid unlivable temperatures. Authors: Ian Allison, Nathaniel Bindoff, Robert Bindschadler, Peter Cox, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudre ́, Matthew England, Jane Francis, Nicolas Gruber, Alan Haywood, David Karoly, Georg Kaser, Corinne Le Que ́re ́, Tim Lenton, Michael Mann, Ben McNeil, Andy Pitman, Stefan Rahmstorf, Eric Rignot, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stephen Schneider, Steven Sherwood, Richard Somerville, Konrad Steffen, Eric Steig, Martin Visbeck, Andrew Weaver


Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-08-22

Total Pages: 351

ISBN-13: 0309388805

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As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.