This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.
From the beginning of 21st century, there has been an awareness of risk in the environment along with a growing concern for the continuing potential damage caused by hazards. In order to ensure environmental sustainability, a better understanding of natural disasters and their impacts is essential. It has been recognized that a holistic and integrated approach to environmental hazards needs to be attempted using common methodologies, such as risk analysis, which involves risk management and risk assessment. Indeed, risk management means reducing the threats posed by known hazards, whereas at the same time accepting unmanageable risks and maximizing any related benefits. The risk management framework involves evaluating the importance of a risk, either quantitatively or qualitatively. Risk assessment comprises three steps, namely risk identification (data base, event monitoring, statistical inference), risk estimation (magnitude, frequency, economic costs) and risk evaluation (cost-benefit analysis). Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, risk governance, i.e. the need for a feedback of all the risk assessment undertakings. There is currently a lack of such feedback which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards. This book emphasises methodological approaches and procedures of the three main components in the study of environmental hazards, namely forecasting - nowcasting (before), monitoring (during) and assessment (after), based on geoinformatic technologies and data and simulation through examples and case studies. These are considered within the risk management framework and, in particular, within the three components of risk assessment, namely risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation. This approach is a contemporary and innovative procedure and constitutes current research in the field of environmental hazards. Environmental Hazards Methodologies for Risk Assessment and Management covers hydrological hazards (floods, droughts, storms, hail, desertification), biophysical hazards (frost, heat waves, epidemics, forest fires), geological hazards (landslides, snow avalanches), tectonic hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes), and technological hazards. This book provides a text and a resource on environmental hazards for senior undergraduate students, graduate students on all courses related to environmental hazards and risk assessment and management. It is a valuable handbook for researchers and professionals of environmental science, environmental economics and management, and engineering. Editor: Nicolas R. Dalezios, University of Thessaly, Greece
Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.
The densely populated Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera is one of the widest known, best studied and highly dangerous volcanoes of the world. This monograph synthesises the current knowledge of this volcano, through different review chapters. Each chapter of this book is dedicated to a specific volcanological aspect, authored by well-recognised experts. The volume attempts to cross the barriers between the volcanological, geological, geochemical and geophysical perspectives, and offers a comprehensive and up-to-date reference to earth-science scholars, as well as land planners and civil defence officers.
The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.
This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.
Volcanoes and eruptions are dramatic surface man telemetry and processing, and volcano-deformation ifestations of dynamic processes within the Earth, source models over the past three decades. There has mostly but not exclusively localized along the been a virtual explosion of volcano-geodesy studies boundaries of Earth's relentlessly shifting tectonic and in the modeling and interpretation of ground plates. Anyone who has witnessed volcanic activity deformation data. Nonetheless, other than selective, has to be impressed by the variety and complexity of brief summaries in journal articles and general visible eruptive phenomena. Equally complex, works on volcano-monitoring and hazards mitiga however, if not even more so, are the geophysical, tion (e. g. , UNESCO, 1972; Agnew, 1986; Scarpa geochemical, and hydrothermal processes that occur and Tilling, 1996), a modern, comprehensive treat underground - commonly undetectable by the ment of volcano geodesy and its applications was human senses - before, during, and after eruptions. non-existent, until now. Experience at volcanoes worldwide has shown that, In the mid-1990s, when Daniel Dzurisin (DZ to at volcanoes with adequate instrumental monitor friends and colleagues) was serving as the Scientist ing, nearly all eruptions are preceded and accom in-Charge of the USGS Cascades Volcano Observa panied by measurable changes in the physical and tory (CVO), I first learned of his dream to write a (or) chemical state of the volcanic system. While book on volcano geodesy.
A comprehensive picture of the architecture of crustal magmatic systems The composition of igneous rocks – their minerals, melts, and fluids – reveals the physical and chemical conditions under which magmas form, evolve, interact, and move from the Earth’s mantle through the crust. These magma dynamics affect processes on the surface including crustal growth and eruptive behaviour of volcanoes. Crustal Magmatic System Evolution: Anatomy, Architecture, and Physico-Chemical Processes uses analytical, experimental, and numerical approaches to explore the diversity of crustal processes from magma differentiation and assimilation to eruption at the surface. Volume highlights include: Physical and chemical parameterization of crustal magmatic systems Experimental, theoretical and modelling approaches targeting crustal magmatic processes Timescales of crustal magmatic processes, including storage, recharge, and ascent through volcanic conduits The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book in a Q&A with the Editors.
This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. It demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations.
Statistics in Volcanology is a comprehensive guide to modern statistical methods applied in volcanology written by today's leading authorities. The volume aims to show how the statistical analysis of complex volcanological data sets, including time series, and numerical models of volcanic processes can improve our ability to forecast volcanic eruptions. Specific topics include the use of expert elicitation and Bayesian methods in eruption forecasting, statistical models of temporal and spatial patterns of volcanic activity, analysis of time series in volcano seismology, probabilistic hazard assessment, and assessment of numerical models using robust statistical methods. Also provided are comprehensive overviews of volcanic phenomena, and a full glossary of both volcanological and statistical terms. Statistics in Volcanology is essential reading for advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and research scientists interested in this multidisciplinary field.
