Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel
Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Author: Mr.Salvatore Dell'Erba

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-07-03

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1616355700

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This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables for a panel of OECD countries for the period 1989-2012. We find that two global factors—the global monetary and fiscal policy stances—explain more than 60 percent of the variance in the long-term interest rates. Compared to the estimates from models which do not account for global factors, we find that the importance of domestic variables in explaining long-term interest rates is weakened. Moreover, the propagation of global fiscal shocks is larger in economies characterized by macroeconomic and institutional weaknesses.

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1998-03-01

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1451844239

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Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.

Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets
Monetary Policy and Balance Sheets

Author: Ms.Deniz Igan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-07-03

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1484343506

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This paper evaluates the strength of the balance sheet channel in the U.S. monetary policy transmission mechanism over the past three decades. Using a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model on an expanded data set, including sectoral balance sheet variables, we show that the balance sheets of various economic agents act as important links in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Balance sheets of financial intermediaries, such as commercial banks, asset-backed-security issuers and, to a lesser extent, security brokers and dealers, shrink in response to monetary tightening, while money market fund assets grow. The balance sheet effects are comparable in magnitude to the traditional interest rate channel. However, their economic significance in the run-up to the recent financial crisis was small. Large increases in interest rates would have been needed to avert a rapid rise of house prices and an unsustainable expansion of mortgage credit, suggesting an important role for macroprudential policies.

A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy
A Modern History of Fiscal Prudence and Profligacy

Author: Mr.Paolo Mauro

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-01-09

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1616358777

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We draw on a newly collected historical dataset of fiscal variables for a large panel of countries—to our knowledge, the most comprehensive database currently available—to gauge the degree of fiscal prudence or profligacy for each country over the past several decades. Specifically, our dataset consists of fiscal revenues, primary expenditures, the interest bill (and thus both the primary and the overall fiscal deficit), the government debt, and gross domestic product, for 55 countries for up to two hundred years. For the first time, a large cross country historical data set covers both fiscal stocks and flows. Using Bohn’s (1998) approach and other tests for fiscal sustainability, we document how the degree of prudence or profligacy varies significantly over time within individual countries. We find that such variation is driven in part by unexpected changes in potential economic growth and sovereign borrowing costs.

The Economics of Banking and Finance in Africa
The Economics of Banking and Finance in Africa

Author: Joshua Yindenaba Abor

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-09-17

Total Pages: 1093

ISBN-13: 3031041623

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This book evaluates the characteristics and developments in Africa’s financial systems, including monetary policy, structured finance, sustainable finance and banking, FinTech, RegTech, SupTech, inclusive finance, the role of regulation in dealing with banking crises, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa’s financial systems and how to reform the post-COVID-19 financial systems. It is made up of contributions from scholars in finance and economics as well as financial market practitioners. Banking and the financial markets play a significant role in the growth of various economies. Although a number of handbooks on banking and finance exist, they mainly focus on Europe, America and Asia. Banks and financial markets in Africa are confronted with different challenges and therefore present a unique case to understand Africa’s financial systems. A number of African countries have experienced banking crises and it is important to examine these issues as well as the regulatory regimes required to address them. This edited book contributes to the limited texts in the area by providing a comprehensive resource on banking and finance for students, scholars, researchers, policymakers, and financial market practitioners. It contains various theoretical and empirical chapters on banking and finance in Africa.

Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia
Sub-National Government’s Risk Premia

Author: Mr.Sergio Sola

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-05-29

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1513511068

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This paper examines the determinants of sub-national governments risk premia using secondary market data for U.S., Canada, Australia and Germany. It finds that, as for central governments, fiscal fundamentals matter in the pricing of risk premia, and sub-national governments with higher public debt and larger deficits pay higher premia. However, this relationship is not uniform across countries. Market pricing mechanisms are less effective in presence of explicit or implicit guarantees from the central government. Specifically, we show that in pricing risk premia of sub-national governments, markets are less responsive to fiscal fundamental when sub-national governments depend on high transfers from the central government, i.e., when there is some form of implicit guarantee from the center. Using primary market data, the paper also looks at whether transfer dependency from the central government influences sub-national governments’ incentive to access markets. We show that high transfer dependency lowers the probability of sub-national governments to borrow on capital markets.

Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?
Does Gross or Net Debt Matter More for Emerging Market Spreads?

Author: Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-01-18

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1475568983

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Does gross or net debt matter for long-term sovereign spreads in emerging markets? The topic is important for undestanding the borrowing cost implications of public assetliability management decisions (e.g. using assets to lower debt). We investigate this question using data on emerging market economies (EMEs) over the period 1998–2014. We find that both gross debt and assets have a significant impact on long-term sovereign bond spreads in emerging markets, with effects roughly offsetting each other (coefficients of opposite sign and similar magnitude). Hence, net debt seems more appropriate than gross debt when evaluating the impact of indebtedness on spreads. The empirical results suggest that an increase in net debt by 10 percentage points of GDP implies an increase in the spread by 100–120 basis points, and the effect is larger during periods of domestic distress. The key results from this empirical study are quite robust to alternative specifications and subgroups of EMEs.

Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth
Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth

Author: Guillermo E. Perry

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007-10-19

Total Pages: 354

ISBN-13: 0821370855

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Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-09-16

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13: 1475558538

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The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.

Interest and Prices
Interest and Prices

Author: Michael Woodford

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-12-12

Total Pages: 805

ISBN-13: 1400830168

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With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.