Development of Statewide Truck Traffic Forecasting Method by Using Limited O-D Survey Data
Author: Man-Bae Park
Publisher:
Published: 1995
Total Pages: 630
ISBN-13:
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Author: Man-Bae Park
Publisher:
Published: 1995
Total Pages: 630
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: Cambridge Systematics
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Published: 2008
Total Pages: 169
ISBN-13: 0309099242
DOWNLOAD EBOOKFederal planning legislation and regulations now mandate that state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations consider the needs of freight when planning and programming transportation investments. While there are standard techniques used to forecast the movement of people, less attention has been paid to forecasting freight movements, and there are consequently fewer standardized techniques that state and local agencies can adapt to their local situation. This Toolkit is designed to provide transportation planners with the information they need to prepare forecasts of freight transportation by highlighting techniques successfully developed by state agencies across the country.
Author:
Publisher:
Published: 2000
Total Pages: 332
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: Wen-Jing Huang
Publisher:
Published: 1998
Total Pages: 654
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: Alan J. Horowitz
Publisher: Transportation Research Board
Published: 2006
Total Pages: 125
ISBN-13: 0309097657
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Synthesis 358: Statewide Travel Forecasting Models examines statewide travel forecasting models designed to address planning needs and provide forecasts for statewide transportation, including passenger vehicle and freight movements. The report explores the types and purposes of models being used, integration of state and urban models, data requirements, computer needs, resources (including time, funding, training, and staff), limitations, and overall benefits. The report includes five case studies, two that focus on passenger components, two on freight components, and one on both passenger and freight.
Author: United States. Office of Highway Planning. Program Management Division
Publisher:
Published: 1973
Total Pages: 196
ISBN-13:
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Publisher:
Published: 1999
Total Pages: 838
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: John S. Miller
Publisher:
Published: 2016
Total Pages: 0
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKTraffic forecasting techniques--such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates--help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element--the peak hour factor--that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.
Author: José A. Sorratini
Publisher:
Published: 1998
Total Pages: 482
ISBN-13:
DOWNLOAD EBOOKAuthor: Eric L. Jessup
Publisher:
Published: 2004
Total Pages: 116
ISBN-13:
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