Contents: General Assessment of Research Accomplished and Findings for FY 1974, Prospects for a Major Change in Japanese Military Policy, A Trend Method for Forecasting Policy Style, The Utility of Issue Indicators, The Application of Markov Chain Analysis to the Czech Crisis of 1968, Comparison of Two Events Data Sources, and Codebook for Defense Events Coding Scheme for Domestic and International Events.
The early warning intelligence function has traditionally involved the exclusive use of quantitative military analysis and qualitative political analysis as means to assess environmental threats. The present study explores the notion that quantitative political analysis is a useful and needed parallel component to military and qualitative political analyses. The central problem of this experiment is to demonstrate the value of quantitative political analysis by applying quantitative political indicators to the task of early warning. The application of quantitative political indicators to two international crises demonstrates that the technology does improve the analyst's ability to sense changes in political trends. This improved ability results, in spite of the fact that the data base used is restricted to international events. The exact intent of a nation to engage in hostile activities often can be inferred only from political changes manifest in the international political arena. In such cases, quantitative political indicators provide a collection of 'tip-off' signals that help the analyst monitor these intents. Quantitative political indicators may be used to compare and display many factors simultaneously. Quantitative indicators, however, only assist the estimator indirectly. Research is in progress to improve the uses of quantitative indicators to this end. (Author).
A research memorandum provides an overview of progress being made in developing quantitative international affairs indicators for application in Department of Defense decision-making. The goal of this work is to build a selective yet comprehensive data base which will permit the systematic description, in a quantitative form, of developments occurring within and between foreign nations. (Modified author abstract).
The report is one of a continuing series of reports describing selected results in the development and application of quantitative international affairs indicators. The objective of the research program is to develop a family of quantitative international affairs indicators that will be useful for systematically recording, interpreting, and anticipating significant international phenomena. In the paper, attention is shifted to results achieved in the development of a second type of international affairs indicators. These indicators are representations of country characteristics selected because of their relevance to national security matters. Country characteristics refer to phenomena that are significant in international affairs but do not directly relate to interaction among countries. (Modified author abstract).
In the aftermath of the explosion of hard data sets in the 1960s for the study of international relations, there has been a movement back toward the use of various experts to quantify the more elusive aspects of the international situation. These aspects range from the beliefs and perceptions of decision makers to the array of stresses that confront nation-states both internally and externally. This volume reflects the most recent and innovative work in the use of data generated by academic, policy, and other experts. The authors discuss expert-generated data as a means of data making, data refinement, and policy analysis. They present all of the major expert-based approaches and offer a variety of methodological and substantive applications.
Indicators and rankings are widely used by governments and organisations to assess the effectiveness, efficiency, and success of policy decisions. This book evaluates the creation of indicators, their impact on policy decisions, and the implications of their use.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
