Explains how to distil big data into manageable sets and use them to optimise business and investment decisions. Reveals techniques to improve a wide range of decisions, and use simple Excel charts to grasp the results. Includes downloadable Excel workbooks to adapt to your own requirements.
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
"A very rich book sprinkled with real-life examples as well as battle-tested advice.” —Pierre Haren, VP ILOG, IBM "James does a thorough job of explaining Decision Management Systems as enablers of a formidable business transformation.” —Deepak Advani, Vice President, Business Analytics Products and SPSS, IBM Build Systems That Work Actively to Help You Maximize Growth and Profits Most companies rely on operational systems that are largely passive. But what if you could make your systems active participants in optimizing your business? What if your systems could act intelligently on their own? Learn, not just report? Empower users to take action instead of simply escalating their problems? Evolve without massive IT investments? Decision Management Systems can do all that and more. In this book, the field’s leading expert demonstrates how to use them to drive unprecedented levels of business value. James Taylor shows how to integrate operational and analytic technologies to create systems that are more agile, more analytic, and more adaptive. Through actual case studies, you’ll learn how to combine technologies such as predictive analytics, optimization, and business rules—improving customer service, reducing fraud, managing risk, increasing agility, and driving growth. Both a practical how-to guide and a framework for planning, Decision Management Systems focuses on mainstream business challenges. Coverage includes Understanding how Decision Management Systems can transform your business Planning your systems “with the decision in mind” Identifying, modeling, and prioritizing the decisions you need to optimize Designing and implementing robust decision services Monitoring your ongoing decision-making and learning how to improve it Proven enablers of effective Decision Management Systems: people, process, and technology Identifying and overcoming obstacles that can derail your Decision Management Systems initiative
As a follow-up to the successful Competing on Analytics, authors Tom Davenport, Jeanne Harris, and Robert Morison provide practical frameworks and tools for all companies that want to use analytics as a basis for more effective and more profitable decision making. Regardless of your company's strategy, and whether or not analytics are your company's primary source of competitive differentiation, this book is designed to help you assess your organization's analytical capabilities, provide the tools to build these capabilities, and put analytics to work. The book helps you answer these pressing questions: What assets do I need in place in my organization in order to use analytics to run my business? Once I have these assets, how do I deploy them to get the most from an analytic approach? How do I get an analytic initiative off the ground in the first place, and then how do I sustain analytics in my organization over time? Packed with tools, frameworks, and all new examples, Analytics at Work makes analytics understandable and accessible and teaches you how to make your company more analytical.
For courses in Decision Making and Engineering. The Fundamentals of Analyzing and Making Decisions Foundations of Decision Analysis is a groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the First Edition teaches readers to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, readers will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.
Business Analytics for Decision Making, the first complete text suitable for use in introductory Business Analytics courses, establishes a national syllabus for an emerging first course at an MBA or upper undergraduate level. This timely text is mainly about model analytics, particularly analytics for constrained optimization. It uses implementations that allow students to explore models and data for the sake of discovery, understanding, and decision making. Business analytics is about using data and models to solve various kinds of decision problems. There are three aspects for those who want to make the most of their analytics: encoding, solution design, and post-solution analysis. This textbook addresses all three. Emphasizing the use of constrained optimization models for decision making, the book concentrates on post-solution analysis of models. The text focuses on computationally challenging problems that commonly arise in business environments. Unique among business analytics texts, it emphasizes using heuristics for solving difficult optimization problems important in business practice by making best use of methods from Computer Science and Operations Research. Furthermore, case studies and examples illustrate the real-world applications of these methods. The authors supply examples in Excel®, GAMS, MATLAB®, and OPL. The metaheuristics code is also made available at the book's website in a documented library of Python modules, along with data and material for homework exercises. From the beginning, the authors emphasize analytics and de-emphasize representation and encoding so students will have plenty to sink their teeth into regardless of their computer programming experience.
Rapid technology change is impacting organizations large and small. Mobile and Cloud computing, the Internet of Things (IoT), and “Big Data” are driving forces in organizational digital transformation. Decision support and analytics are available to many people in a business or organization. Business professionals need to learn about and understand computerized decision support for organizations to succeed. This text is targeted to busy managers and students who need to grasp the basics of computerized decision support, including: What is analytics? What is a decision support system? What is “Big Data”? What are “Big Data” business use cases? Overall, it addresses 61 fundamental questions. In a short period of time, readers can “get up to speed” on decision support, analytics, and business intelligence. The book then provides a quick reference to important recurring questions.
Some of Schuyler's tried-and-true tips include: - The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone's judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.- We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.- Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!- Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.
This book examines how to develop the main traits that are necessary to become an “informed intuitant”. Case studies and examples of successful “informed intuitants” are a major component of the book. “Intuitant” is someone who has the intuitive awareness to be successful. “Informed intuitant” indicates that the individual/decision maker not only applies his/her intuition but also verifies it through using data-driven approaches (such as data analytics). Some of this work resulted from research examining how well do executives trust their intuition.