Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets
Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets

Author: Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-09-29

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1513581929

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This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth, with the magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depending on the specific type of credit. In particular, the results show that corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment, while consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption. In addition, taking Brazil as a case study, we use a time series model to examine the role that the expansion and composition of credit played in driving real GDP growth in the past. The results of the case study are consistent with those found in the cross-country panel regressions.

Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets
Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets

Author: Ms.Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-09-29

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 151355378X

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This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth, with the magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depending on the specific type of credit. In particular, the results show that corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment, while consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption. In addition, taking Brazil as a case study, we use a time series model to examine the role that the expansion and composition of credit played in driving real GDP growth in the past. The results of the case study are consistent with those found in the cross-country panel regressions.

An Anatomy of Credit Booms
An Anatomy of Credit Booms

Author: Mr.Marco Terrones

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-09-01

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13: 1451870841

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We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and leverage ratios, firm values, and banking fragility. We also find that credit booms are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; most emerging markets crises are associated with credit booms; and credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.

Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets
Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets

Author: Mahmood Pradhan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-04-20

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13: 1463935129

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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

A Decade after the Global Recession
A Decade after the Global Recession

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-19

Total Pages: 475

ISBN-13: 1464815283

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This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.

Financial Market Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets
Financial Market Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets

Author: Masahiro Kawai

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 441

ISBN-13: 0815704895

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"In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2008, offers a systematic overview of recent developments in regulatory frameworks in advanced and emerging-market countries, outlining challenges to improving regulation, markets, and access in developing economies"--Provided by publisher.

Global Waves of Debt
Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Policies for Macrofinancial Stability
Policies for Macrofinancial Stability

Author: Mr.Bas B. Bakker

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-06-07

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1475572689

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This note explores the costs and benefits of different policy options to reduce the risks associated with credit booms, drawing upon several country experiences and the findings from econometric analysis.

The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability
The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability

Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-09-27

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 151351377X

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We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets

Author: Sebastian Edwards

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2002-11-15

Total Pages: 782

ISBN-13: 9780226184944

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Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons recent financial crises in Asia and other emerging market countries hold for the future of the global financial system. In this timely and important volume, distinguished academics, officials in multilateral organizations, and public and private sector economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds). Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.