What Might Have Been

What Might Have Been

Author: Neal J. Roese

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2014-01-14

Total Pages: 418

ISBN-13: 1317780469

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Within a few short years, research on counterfactual thinking has mushroomed, establishing itself as one of the signature domains within social psychology. Counterfactuals are thoughts of what might have been, of possible past outcomes that could have taken place. Counterfactuals and their implications for perceptions of time and causality have long fascinated philosophers, but only recently have social psychologists made them the focus of empirical inquiry. Following the publication of Kahneman and Tversky's seminal 1982 paper, a burgeoning literature has implicated counterfactual thinking in such diverse judgments as causation, blame, prediction, and suspicion; in such emotional experiences as regret, elation, disappointment and sympathy; and also in achievement, coping, and intergroup bias. But how do such thoughts come about? What are the mechanisms underlying their operation? How do their consequences benefit, or harm, the individual? When is their generation spontaneous and when is it strategic? This volume explores these and other numerous issues by assembling contributions from the most active researchers in this rapidly expanding subfield of social psychology. Each chapter provides an in-depth exploration of a particular conceptual facet of counterfactual thinking, reviewing previous work, describing ongoing, cutting-edge research, and offering novel theoretical analysis and synthesis. As the first edited volume to bring together the many threads of research and theory on counterfactual thinking, this book promises to be a source of insight and inspiration for years to come.


The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking

The Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking

Author: David R. Mandel

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2007-05-07

Total Pages: 265

ISBN-13: 1134353197

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This book provides a critical overview of significant developments in research and theory on counterfactual thinking that have emerged in recent years and spotlights exciting new directions for future research in this area. Key issues considered include the relations between counterfactual and casual reasoning, the functional bases of counterfactual thinking, the role of counterfactual thinking in the experience of emotion and the importance of counterfactual thinking in the context of crime and justice.


Counterfactual Reasoning

Counterfactual Reasoning

Author: Ph D. Noel Hendrickson

Publisher: Lulu.com

Published: 2011-09-16

Total Pages: 87

ISBN-13: 1105055639

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Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., ?What If? statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its ?back-story?). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci


Interpretable Machine Learning

Interpretable Machine Learning

Author: Christoph Molnar

Publisher: Lulu.com

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 0244768528

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This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.


Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation

Understanding Counterfactuals, Understanding Causation

Author: Christoph Hoerl

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2011-11-03

Total Pages: 279

ISBN-13: 0199590699

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Twelve essays explore what bearing empirical findings might have on philosophical concerns about counterfactuals and causation, and how, in turn, work in philosophy might help clarify issues in empirical work on the relationships between causal and counterfactual thought.


Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 1996-09-08

Total Pages: 362

ISBN-13: 9780691027913

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Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.


Children's Reasoning and the Mind

Children's Reasoning and the Mind

Author: Peter Mitchell

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2014-06-03

Total Pages: 430

ISBN-13: 1317715225

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This fresh and dynamic book offers a thorough investigation into the development of the cognitive processes that underpin judgements about mental states (often termed 'theory of mind') and addresses specific issues that have not been adequately dealt with in the past, and which are now being raised by some of the most prominent researchers in the field.


The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking [microform]

The Functional Basis of Counterfactual Thinking [microform]

Author: Neal J. Roese

Publisher: National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 482

ISBN-13: 9780315840034

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These findings provide initial support for a functional theory of counterfactual thinking: people may strategically use downward counterfactuals to make themselves feel better (an affective function), and they may strategically use upward and additive counterfactuals to improve performance in the future (a preparative function). The present studies suggest that the mechanism underlying the preparative function represents a causal link from counterfactuals to intentions to overt behaviours. Implications for current theory and future research are considered.


Counterfactual Reasoning

Counterfactual Reasoning

Author: Noel Hendrickson

Publisher:

Published: 2008-10-15

Total Pages: 86

ISBN-13: 9781452863573

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Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., "What If" statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities or future possibilities. Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. The ?rst two of these are somewhat counterintuitive and are easily ignored by analysts. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its "back-story"). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility's back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect their conclusion to the speci?c type of strategic assessment the counterfactual will be used to support: decision making under risk or decision making under uncertainty. Includes notes, glossary and references. Noel Hendrickson is Director of the Institute for National Security Analysis.


The Rational Imagination

The Rational Imagination

Author: Ruth M. J. Byrne

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2007-01-26

Total Pages: 284

ISBN-13: 9780262261845

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The human imagination remains one of the last uncharted terrains of the mind. This accessible and original monograph explores a central aspect of the imagination, the creation of counterfactual alternatives to reality, and claims that imaginative thoughts are guided by the same principles that underlie rational thoughts. Research has shown that rational thought is more imaginative than cognitive scientists had supposed; in The Rational Imagination, Ruth Byrne argues that imaginative thought is more rational than scientists have imagined. People often create alternatives to reality and imagine how events might have turned out "if only" something had been different. Byrne explores the "fault lines" of reality, the aspects of reality that are more readily changed in imaginative thoughts. She finds that our tendencies to imagine alternatives to actions, controllable events, socially unacceptable actions, causal and enabling relations, and events that come last in a temporal sequence provide clues to the cognitive processes upon which the counterfactual imagination depends. The explanation of these processes, Byrne argues, rests on the idea that imaginative thought and rational thought have much in common.