"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Five specialists examine the historical relationship of culture and conflict in various regional societies. The authors use Adda B. Bozeman's theories on conflict and culture as the basis for their analyses of the causes, nature, and conduct of war and conflict in the Soviet Union, the Middle East, Sinic Asia (China, Japan, and Vietnam), Latin America, and Africa. Drs. Blank, Lawrence Grinter, Karl P. Magyar, Lewis B. Ware, and Bynum E. Weathers conclude that non-Western cultures and societies do not reject war but look at violence and conflict as a normal and legitimate aspect of sociopolitical behavior.
Impending technological advances will widen an adversary’s attack plane over the next decade. Visualizing what the future will hold, and what new threat vectors could emerge, is a task that traditional planning mechanisms struggle to accomplish given the wide range of potential issues. Understanding and preparing for the future operating environment is the basis of an analytical method known as Threatcasting. It is a method that gives researchers a structured way to envision and plan for risks ten years in the future. Threatcasting uses input from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and even a little science fiction to recognize future threats and design potential futures. During this human-centric process, participants brainstorm what actions can be taken to identify, track, disrupt, mitigate, and recover from the possible threats. Specifically, groups explore how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding an undesired future. The Threatcasting method also exposes what events could happen that indicate the progression toward an increasingly possible threat landscape. This book begins with an overview of the Threatcasting method with examples and case studies to enhance the academic foundation. Along with end-of-chapter exercises to enhance the reader’s understanding of the concepts, there is also a full project where the reader can conduct a mock Threatcasting on the topic of “the next biological public health crisis.” The second half of the book is designed as a practitioner’s handbook. It has three separate chapters (based on the general size of the Threatcasting group) that walk the reader through how to apply the knowledge from Part I to conduct an actual Threatcasting activity. This book will be useful for a wide audience (from student to practitioner) and will hopefully promote new dialogues across communities and novel developments in the area.
This title was first published in 2003. Economists have had increasing success in arguing the merits of market-based approaches to environmental problems. By making polluting expensive, market-based approaches provide polluters with incentives to clean up, rather than mandates to stop polluting. These approaches include pollution taxes, transferable emissions permits and subsidies for pollution abatement. The purpose of this volume is to explore the situations where Command and Control (CAC) may not be all bad, and in fact might even have some advantages over market-based instruments (MBI).
′...effectively fills a long-standing void and will no doubt be hailed as a much-needed new addition to the literature... This text very much exemplifies the strength of Ho-Won Jeong as a theorist and one of the more prolific writers in the larger peace and conflict studies field... the final three chapters on ′De-escalation Dynamics′ (which includes a brief section on third party intervention), on ′Conciliation Strategies,′ and especially the one on ′Ending Conflict,′ which provides a range of outcomes beyond the usual focus on third party intervention (read mediation) epitomizes the value of this new text′ - Journal of Peace Research ′...an awesome tour d′horizon of modern war, violence, and confrontation within and between nations. Illustrating via just about every conflict in every corner of the world, the author invokes an endless array of insights and interpretations, ranging from the micro to the macro, beautifully written in a seamless sequence of closely linked and discursive essays.′ - Professor J. David Singer, University of Michigan ′Ho-Won Jeong has written an illuminatinbg analysis of the dynamics of conflict. He lays out the tools we have to analyze conflict in a literate and comprehensive way. A valuable book for anyone interested in a more comprehensive understanding of conflict, its sources, and its deescalation and termination′ - Janice Gross Stein, Belzberg Professor of Conflict Management, Director, Munk Centre for International Studies, University of Toronto ′Jeong has successfully combined behavioral and structural analysis of the dynamics of social conflict. This volume covers the multiple dimensions - escalation, entrapment, de-escalation, termination, and resolution - both of violent and non-violent confrontation between adversaries, as well as the utility and limitations of external intervention. For students of the social sciences, it should serve as an excellent introduction to the complex realities of social conflict.′ - Milton Esman, John S. Knight Professor of International Studies, Emeritus, Cornell University By examining the dynamic forces which shape and re-shape major conflicts, this timely book provides students with the knowledge base needed to successfully study conflict sources, processes and transformations. Broad in focus, it addresses the multiple social, political and psychological features central to understanding conflict situations and behaviour. A range of both recent and historical examples (including the Arab-Israeli conflict, the ′War on Terrorism′, the Cold War, and the civil wars in Sudan, former Yugoslavia and Sri Lanka) are discussed, illustrating the application of concepts and theories essential to the analysis of inter-group, inter-state and intra-state conflict and conflict resolution in a wider context. Understanding Conflict and Conflict Analysis is key reading for students of international relations, peace and conflict studies, conflict resolution, international security and international law.
Finding an alternative to supplement military ways of resolving international conflicts has been taken up by many people skilled in various areas such as political science, economics, social studies, modelling and simulation, artificial intelligence and expert systems, military strategy and weaponry as well as private business and industry. The Workshop will therefore be of use as it looks at various control methods which would create a conciliatory social and political environment or climate for seeking and obtaining non-military solutions to international conflicts and to solutions to national conflicts which may lead to international conflicts.
BMW Z-cars have carved a huge reputation for themselves in a very short time. From the revolutionary and innovative Z1 of the late 1980s to the beautiful and exclusive Z8 of more recent times, via the popular Z3 and its controversial replacement, the Z4, the family has made BMW's name in the increasingly competitive sports-car market.
