Originally published in 1985 and contributed to by internationally renowned economists, this volume discusses theoretical issues and country-specific experiences to review the underlying causes of the stagflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, as well as summarizing the kinds of macro-policies that were adopted to deal with the stagflation.
Examines the politics of economic policy, focusing on forecasting, inflation, interest rates, market expectations, financial crises, disruptions in global markets, and tax policy, as well as state and local government budgeting, financial management, and policy initiatives for development and growth.
Granting central banks independence from short-term political control is widely assumed to decrease inflation by increasing the credibility of commitments to price stability. This paper analyzes public- and private-sector behavior in a sample of seventeen OECD countries for evidence of variations in disinflationary credibility with monetary institutions. The paper does not find evidence that the costs of disinflation are lower in countries with independent central banks, even when differences in contracting behavior are taken into account. It also does not find evidence that central bank independence inhibits government collection of seignorage revenues or manipulation of economic policy for electoral gain. These results raise questions about some explanations of the negative correlation between central bank independence and inflation, as well as the empirical relevance of government time-inconsistancy problems as a source of inflation differences.
This handbook explains the development and implementation of monetary policy. It examines theories and issues related to the preservation of economic activity and explores why the preservation of economic stability is a principal goal of public policy.
Part 6: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy. 19. Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle (J.Y. Campbell). 20. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system (R.J. Shiller). 21. The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework (B. Bernanke, M. Gertler and S. Gilchrist). Part 7: Monetary and Fiscal Policy. 22. Political economics and macroeconomic policy (T. Persson, G. Tabellini). 23. Issues in the design of monetary policy rules (B.T. McCallum). 24. Inflation stabilization and BOP crises in developing countries (G.A. Calvo, C.A. Vegh). 25. Government debt (D.W. Elmendorf, N.G. Mankiw). 26. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy (V.V. Chari, P.J. Kehoe).
The years following World War II saw a huge expansion of the middle classes in the world's industrialized nations, with a significant part of the working class becoming absorbed into the middle class. Although never explicitly formalized, it was as though a new social contract called for government, business, and labor to work together to ensure greater political freedom and more broadly shared economic prosperity. For the most part, they succeeded. In Social Contracts Under Stress, eighteen experts from seven countries examine this historic transformation and look ahead to assess how the middle class might fare in the face of slowing economic growth and increasing globalization. The first section of the book focuses on the differing experiences of Germany, Britain, France, the United States, and Japan as they became middle-class societies. The British working classes, for example, were slowest to consider themselves middle class, while in Japan by the 1960s, most workers had abandoned working-class identity. The French remain more fragmented among various middle classes and resist one homogenous entity. Part II presents compelling evidence that the rise of a huge middle class was far from inclusive or free of social friction. Some contributors discuss how the social contract reinforced long-standing prejudices toward minorities and women. In the United States, Ira Katznelson writes, Southern politicians used measures that should have promoted equality, such as the GI bill, to exclude blacks from full access to opportunity. In her review of gender and family models, Chiara Saraceno finds that Mediterranean countries have mobilized the power of the state to maintain a division of labor between men and women. The final section examines what effect globalization might have on the middle class. Leonard Schoppa's careful analysis of the relevant data shows how globalization has pushed "less skilled workers down and more skilled workers up out of a middle class that had for a few decades been home to both." Although Europe has resisted the rise of inequality more effectively than the United States or Japan, several contributors wonder how long that resistance can last. Social Contracts Under Stress argues convincingly that keeping the middle class open and inclusive in the face of current economic pressures will require a collective will extending across countries. This book provides an invaluable guide for assessing the issues that must be considered in such an effort.
This book was originally published in 2004. Fears of deflation seemed nothing more than a relic of the Great Depression. However, beginning in the 1990s, persistently falling consumer prices have emerged in Japan, China and elsewhere. Deflation is also a distinct possibility in some of the major European area economies, especially Germany, and emerged as a concern of the US Federal Reserve in 2003. Deflation may be worse than inflation not only because the real burden of debt rises but also because firms would confront rising real wages in a world where nominal wage rigidity prevails. This volume explores some key themes regarding deflation including: (i) how economic agents and policy makers have responded to deflation, (ii) the links between monetary policy, goods price movements, and asset price movements, (iii) the impact of deflation under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes, and (iv) stock market reactions to deflation.
The Maastricht Treaty, signed in December 1991, set a timetable for the European Community's economic and monetary union (EMU) and clearly defined the institutional policy changes necessary for its achievement. Subsequent developments have demonstrated, however, the importance of many key issues in the transition to EMU that were largely neglected at the time. This volume reports the proceedings of a joint CEPR conference with the Banco de Portugal, held in January 1992. In these papers, leading international experts address the instability of the transition to EMU, the long-run implications of monetary union and the single market for growth and convergence in Europe. They also consider the prospects for inflation and fiscal convergence, regional policy and the integration of financial markets and fiscal systems. Attention focuses on adjustment mechanisms with differentiated shocks, region-specific business cycles and excessive industrial concentration and the cases for a two-speed EMU and fiscal federalism.
Since the mid-1970s, there has been considerable research on the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation. Nonetheless, until recently, this research had not explicitly explored the implications of contracts that index wages to lagged inflation, the usual type of wage indexation observed in practice. Drawing mainly on recent research by the author, this paper examines the consequences of wage indexation to lagged inflation on aggregate wage formation, the cost of disinflation under money- and exchange-rate-based stabilization, the variability of output under alternative shocks and policy regimes, the choice of exchange rate regime, and the level and variability of inflation.
First published in 1985, Advances in Monetary Economics draws together papers given at the 1984 Money Study Group Conference and additional papers presented in seminars of the same year. The book includes papers on theoretical, empirical and institutional aspects of monetary economics. Each chapter displays a concern with policy in the monetary sphere, both with regards to macroeconomic questions of monetary and fiscal management, and issues of policy at the microeconomic level towards financial institutions and markets. In doing so, the book highlights the importance of monetary economics in policy issues. Advances in Monetary Economics has enduring relevance for those with an interest in the history and development of monetary economics.