Confused by the Odds
Confused by the Odds

Author: David Lockwood

Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group

Published: 2023-01-24

Total Pages: 255

ISBN-13:

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Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the “Long Peace”—the last three-quarters of a century without a global war—and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You’ll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You’ll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You’ll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems—without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.

The Mighty Odds (The Odds Series #1)
The Mighty Odds (The Odds Series #1)

Author: Amy Ignatow

Publisher: Abrams

Published: 2016-09-13

Total Pages: 216

ISBN-13: 1613128983

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From the renowned author/illustrator of the Popularity Papers series, Amy Ignatow, comes the first installment in a new series about a diverse crew of middle school kids who develop very limited superhero powers after a strange accident and manage to become unlikely friends on the adventure of a lifetime. When a sweet nerd, an artsy cartoonist, a social outcast, and the most popular girl in school are involved in a mysterious bus accident, this seemingly random group of kids starts to notice some very strange abilities they did not have before. Artsy Martina can change her eye color. Nerdy Nick can teleport . . . four inches to the left. Outcast Farshad develops super strength, but only in his thumbs. And Cookie, the It Girl of school’s most popular clique, has suddenly developed the ability to read minds . . . when those minds are thinking about directions. They are oddly mighty—especially together. This group—who would never hang out under normal circumstances—must now combine all of their strengths to figure out what happened during the bus accident. With alternating narratives from each of the heroes, including illustrated pieces from Martina, and featuring bold female superheroes and a multicultural cast, The Mighty Odds is The Breakfast Club for a new generation. For more books by Amy Ignatow, check out her critically acclaimed Popularity Papers series: Book One: Research for the Social Improvement and General Betterment of Lydia Goldblatt and Julie Graham Chang; Book Two: The Long-Distance Dispatch; Book Three: Words of (Questionable) Wisdom; Book Four: The Rocky Road Trip; Book Five: The Awesomely Awful Melodies; Book Six: Love and Other Fiascos; and Book Seven: The Less-Than-Hidden Secrets and Final Revelations.

Stochastic Processes, Estimation, and Control
Stochastic Processes, Estimation, and Control

Author: Jason L. Speyer

Publisher: SIAM

Published: 2008-11-06

Total Pages: 391

ISBN-13: 0898716551

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The authors provide a comprehensive treatment of stochastic systems from the foundations of probability to stochastic optimal control. The book covers discrete- and continuous-time stochastic dynamic systems leading to the derivation of the Kalman filter, its properties, and its relation to the frequency domain Wiener filter aswell as the dynamic programming derivation of the linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) and the linear exponential Gaussian (LEG) controllers and their relation to HÝsubscript 2¨ and HÝsubscript Ýinfinity¨¨ controllers and system robustness. This book is suitable for first-year graduate students in electrical, mechanical, chemical, and aerospace engineering specializing in systems and control. Students in computer science, economics, and possibly business will also find it useful.

Fooled by the Winners
Fooled by the Winners

Author: David Lockwood

Publisher: Greenleaf Book Group

Published: 2021-11-09

Total Pages: 317

ISBN-13: 1626348812

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Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples—minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.

Categorical Data Analysis for the Behavioral and Social Sciences
Categorical Data Analysis for the Behavioral and Social Sciences

Author: Razia Azen

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2011-01-07

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 1136914242

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Featuring a practical approach with numerous examples, this book focuses on helping the reader develop a conceptual, rather than technical, understanding of categorical methods, making it a much more accessible text than others on the market. The authors cover common categorical analyses and emphasize specific research questions that can be addressed by each analytic procedure so that readers are able to address the research questions they wish to answer. To achieve this goal, the authors: Review the theoretical implications and assumptions underlying each of the procedures Present each concept in general terms and illustrate each with a practical example Demonstrate the analyses using SPSS and SAS and show the interpretation of the results provided by these programs. A "Look Ahead" section at the beginning of each chapter provides an overview of the material covered so that the reader knows what to expect. This is followed by one or more research questions that can be addressed using the procedure(s) covered in the chapter. A theoretical presentation of the material is provided and illustrated using realistic examples from the behavioral and social sciences. To further enhance accessibility, the new procedures introduced in the book are explicitly related to analytic procedures covered in earlier statistics courses, such as ANOVA and linear regression. Throughout each chapter the authors use practical examples to demonstrate how to obtain and interpret statistical output in both SPSS and SAS. Their emphasis on the relationship between the initial research question, the use of the software to carry out the analysis, and the interpretation of the output as it relates to the initial research question, allows readers to easily apply the material to their own research. The data sets for executing chapter examples using SAS Version 9.1.3 and/or IBM SPSS Version 18 are available on a book specific web site. These data sets and syntax allow readers to quickly run the programs and obtain the appropriate output. The book also includes both conceptual and analytic end-of-chapter exercises to assist instructors and students in evaluating the understanding of the material covered in each chapter. This book covers the most commonly used categorical data analysis procedures. It is written for those without an extensive mathematical background, and is ideal for graduate courses in categorical data analysis or cross-classified data analysis taught in departments of psychology, human development & family studies, sociology, education, and business. Researchers in these disciplines interested in applying these procedures to their own research will appreciate this book’s accessible approach.

The Complete Problem Solver
The Complete Problem Solver

Author: John R. Hayes

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-04-03

Total Pages: 384

ISBN-13: 1136465200

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This unique volume returns in its second edition, revised and updated with the latest advances in problem solving research. It is designed to provide readers with skills that will make them better problem solvers and to give up-to-date information about the psychology of problem solving. Professor Hayes provides students and professionals with practical, tested methods of defining, representing, and solving problems. Each discussion of the important aspects of human problem solving is supported by the most current research on the psychology problem solving. The Complete Problem Solver, Second Edition features: *Valuable learning strategies; *Decision making methods; *Discussions of the nature of creativity and invention, and *A new chapter on writing. The Complete Problem Solver utilizes numerous examples, diagrams, illustrations, and charts to help any reader become better at problem solving. See the order form for the answer to the problem below.

Understanding and Calculating the Odds
Understanding and Calculating the Odds

Author: Catalin Barboianu

Publisher: INFAROM Publishing

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 9738752019

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This book presents not only the mathematical concept of probability, but also its philosophical aspects, the relativity of probability and its applications and even the psychology of probability. All explanations are made in a comprehensible manner and are supported with suggestive examples from nature and daily life, and even with challenging math paradoxes. (Mathematics)

Multilevel Modeling of Categorical Outcomes Using IBM SPSS
Multilevel Modeling of Categorical Outcomes Using IBM SPSS

Author: Ronald H Heck

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-05-07

Total Pages: 449

ISBN-13: 1136672346

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This is the first workbook that introduces the multilevel approach to modeling with categorical outcomes using IBM SPSS Version 20. Readers learn how to develop, estimate, and interpret multilevel models with categorical outcomes. The authors walk readers through data management, diagnostic tools, model conceptualization, and model specification issues related to single-level and multilevel models with categorical outcomes. Screen shots clearly demonstrate techniques and navigation of the program. Modeling syntax is provided in the appendix. Examples of various types of categorical outcomes demonstrate how to set up each model and interpret the output. Extended examples illustrate the logic of model development, interpretation of output, the context of the research questions, and the steps around which the analyses are structured. Readers can replicate examples in each chapter by using the corresponding data and syntax files available at www.psypress.com/9781848729568. The book opens with a review of multilevel with categorical outcomes, followed by a chapter on IBM SPSS data management techniques to facilitate working with multilevel and longitudinal data sets. Chapters 3 and 4 detail the basics of the single-level and multilevel generalized linear model for various types of categorical outcomes. These chapters review underlying concepts to assist with trouble-shooting common programming and modeling problems. Next population-average and unit-specific longitudinal models for investigating individual or organizational developmental processes are developed. Chapter 6 focuses on single- and multilevel models using multinomial and ordinal data followed by a chapter on models for count data. The book concludes with additional trouble shooting techniques and tips for expanding on the modeling techniques introduced. Ideal as a supplement for graduate level courses and/or professional workshops on multilevel, longitudinal, latent variable modeling, multivariate statistics, and/or advanced quantitative techniques taught in psychology, business, education, health, and sociology, this practical workbook also appeals to researchers in these fields. An excellent follow up to the authors’ highly successful Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling with IBM SPSS and Introduction to Multilevel Modeling Techniques, 2nd Edition, this book can also be used with any multilevel and/or longitudinal book or as a stand-alone text introducing multilevel modeling with categorical outcomes.

Calculated Risks
Calculated Risks

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Publisher: Simon and Schuster

Published: 2002

Total Pages: 328

ISBN-13: 0743254236

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At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists
Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists

Author: Mark Muse

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2012-03-22

Total Pages: 532

ISBN-13: 1118235088

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Praise for Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists "Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists is a remarkably thorough introductory textbook for integrating psychotropic drug prescribing into psychological practices. It covers basic concepts in physiology, neurology, and pharmacology in easily understood language. Not only is this book a requirement for any psychologist seeking to gain prescriptive authority, but it is also helpful for any mental health clinician who collaborates with prescribers of any discipline. I recommend it highly." Daniel Carlat, MD, Editor in Chief of The Carlat Psychiatry Report "An important resource for any psychologist who is preparing to become a prescribing psychologist or for any psychologist who wants to be informed about the practice of medical psychology." Joseph E. Comaty, PhD, MP, coauthor of A Primer of Drug Action "Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists is an excellent treatise written by psychologists for psychologists." From the Foreword by Patrick H. DeLeon, PhD, and Jack G. Wiggins, PhD, former presidents of the American Psychological Association An essential and practical guide to integrating psychopharmacology into clinical practice Edited by medical psychologists with contributions by notable experts in their respective specialties, Handbook of Clinical Psychopharmacology for Psychologists covers key topics including: Ethics, standards of care, laws, and regulations relevant to clinical psychopharmacology Disorders of the nervous system, with particular relevance to psychopharmacology Use of comprehensive diagnostic strategies to establish differential diagnoses among possible medical and psychological symptoms Integration of pharmacotherapy with psychotherapy This essential book also provides an introduction to the qualifying exam for psychologists seeking specialty training in psychopharmacology, the Psychopharmacology Exam for Psychologists (PEP). The PEP-like practice test is available on the companion CD-ROM.