Microbial Threats to Health
Microbial Threats to Health

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2003-08-25

Total Pages: 397

ISBN-13: 0309185548

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Infectious diseases are a global hazard that puts every nation and every person at risk. The recent SARS outbreak is a prime example. Knowing neither geographic nor political borders, often arriving silently and lethally, microbial pathogens constitute a grave threat to the health of humans. Indeed, a majority of countries recently identified the spread of infectious disease as the greatest global problem they confront. Throughout history, humans have struggled to control both the causes and consequences of infectious diseases and we will continue to do so into the foreseeable future. Following up on a high-profile 1992 report from the Institute of Medicine, Microbial Threats to Health examines the current state of knowledge and policy pertaining to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases from around the globe. It examines the spectrum of microbial threats, factors in disease emergence, and the ultimate capacity of the United States to meet the challenges posed by microbial threats to human health. From the impact of war or technology on disease emergence to the development of enhanced disease surveillance and vaccine strategies, Microbial Threats to Health contains valuable information for researchers, students, health care providers, policymakers, public health officials. and the interested public.

Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals
Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals

Author: Matt J. Keeling

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-09-19

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 1400841038

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For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control

Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics
Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics

Author: Odo Diekmann

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2012-11-18

Total Pages: 517

ISBN-13: 1400845629

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Mathematical modeling is critical to our understanding of how infectious diseases spread at the individual and population levels. This book gives readers the necessary skills to correctly formulate and analyze mathematical models in infectious disease epidemiology, and is the first treatment of the subject to integrate deterministic and stochastic models and methods. Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics fully explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology. This comprehensive and accessible book also features numerous detailed exercises throughout; full elaborations to all exercises are provided. Covers the latest research in mathematical modeling of infectious disease epidemiology Integrates deterministic and stochastic approaches Teaches skills in model construction, analysis, inference, and interpretation Features numerous exercises and their detailed elaborations Motivated by real-world applications throughout

Computational Epidemiology
Computational Epidemiology

Author: Jiming Liu

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-09-18

Total Pages: 126

ISBN-13: 3030521095

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This book provides a comprehensive introduction to computational epidemiology, highlighting its major methodological paradigms throughout the development of the field while emphasizing the needs for a new paradigm shift in order to most effectively address the increasingly complex real-world challenges in disease control and prevention. Specifically, the book presents the basic concepts, related computational models, and tools that are useful for characterizing disease transmission dynamics with respect to a heterogeneous host population. In addition, it shows how to develop and apply computational methods to tackle the challenges involved in population-level intervention, such as prioritized vaccine allocation. A unique feature of this book is that its examination on the issues of vaccination decision-making is not confined only to the question of how to develop strategic policies on prioritized interventions, as it further approaches the issues from the perspective of individuals, offering a well integrated cost-benefit and social-influence account for voluntary vaccination decisions. One of the most important contributions of this book lies in it offers a blueprint on a novel methodological paradigm in epidemiology, namely, systems epidemiology, with detailed systems modeling principles, as well as practical steps and real-world examples, which can readily be applied in addressing future systems epidemiological challenges. The book is intended to serve as a reference book for researchers and practitioners in the fields of computer science and epidemiology. Together with the provided references on the key concepts, methods, and examples being introduced, the book can also readily be adopted as an introductory text for undergraduate and graduate courses in computational epidemiology as well as systems epidemiology, and as training materials for practitioners and field workers.

Charting the Next Pandemic
Charting the Next Pandemic

Author: Ana Pastore y Piontti

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-11-07

Total Pages: 221

ISBN-13: 331993290X

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This book provides an introduction to the computational and complex systems modeling of the global spreading of infectious diseases. The latest developments in the area of contagion processes modeling are discussed, and readers are exposed to real world examples of data-model integration impacting the decision-making process. Recent advances in computational science and the increasing availability of real-world data are making it possible to develop realistic scenarios and real-time forecasts of the global spreading of emerging health threats. The first part of the book guides the reader through sophisticated complex systems modeling techniques with a non-technical and visual approach, explaining and illustrating the construction of the modern framework used to project the spread of pandemics and epidemics. Models can be used to transform data to knowledge that is intuitively communicated by powerful infographics and for this reason, the second part of the book focuses on a set of charts that illustrate possible scenarios of future pandemics. The visual atlas contained allows the reader to identify commonalities and patterns in emerging health threats, as well as explore the wide range of models and data that can be used by policy makers to anticipate trends, evaluate risks and eventually manage future events. Charting the Next Pandemic puts the reader in the position to explore different pandemic scenarios and to understand the potential impact of available containment and prevention strategies. This book emphasizes the importance of a global perspective in the assessment of emerging health threats and captures the possible evolution of the next pandemic, while at the same time providing the intelligence needed to fight it. The text will appeal to a wide range of audiences with diverse technical backgrounds.

Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases
Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Author: Piero Manfredi

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-01-04

Total Pages: 329

ISBN-13: 1461454743

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This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in the fast growing research area of modeling the influence of information-driven human behavior on the spread and control of infectious diseases. In particular, it features the two main and inter-related “core” topics: behavioral changes in response to global threats, for example, pandemic influenza, and the pseudo-rational opposition to vaccines. In order to make realistic predictions, modelers need to go beyond classical mathematical epidemiology to take these dynamic effects into account. With contributions from experts in this field, the book fills a void in the literature. It goes beyond classical texts, yet preserves the rationale of many of them by sticking to the underlying biology without compromising on scientific rigor. Epidemiologists, theoretical biologists, biophysicists, applied mathematicians, and PhD students will benefit from this book. However, it is also written for Public Health professionals interested in understanding models, and to advanced undergraduate students, since it only requires a working knowledge of mathematical epidemiology.

Mathematical Modeling Approach To Infectious Diseases, A: Cross Diffusion Pde Models For Epidemiology
Mathematical Modeling Approach To Infectious Diseases, A: Cross Diffusion Pde Models For Epidemiology

Author: William E Schiesser

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2018-06-27

Total Pages: 460

ISBN-13: 9813238801

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The intent of this book is to provide a methodology for the analysis of infectious diseases by computer-based mathematical models. The approach is based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that provide time variation of the model dependent variables and partial differential equations (PDEs) that provide time and spatial (spatiotemporal) variations of the model dependent variables.The starting point is a basic ODE SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) model that defines the S,I,R populations as a function of time. The ODE SIR model is then extended to PDEs that demonstrate the spatiotemporal evolution of the S,I,R populations. A unique feature of the PDE model is the use of cross diffusion between populations, a nonlinear effect that is readily accommodated numerically. A second feature is the use of radial coordinates to represent the geographical distribution of the model populations.The numerical methods for the computer implementation of ODE/PDE models for infectious diseases are illustrated with documented R routines for particular applications, including models for malaria and the Zika virus. The R routines are available from a download so that the reader can reproduce the reported solutions, then extend the applications through computer experimentation, including the addition of postulated effects and associated equations, and the implementation of alternative models of interest.The ODE/PDE methodology is open ended and facilitates the development of computer-based models which hopefully can elucidate the causes/conditions of infectious disease evolution and suggest methods of control.

Epidemics
Epidemics

Author: Ottar N. Bjørnstad

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-10-30

Total Pages: 318

ISBN-13: 3319974874

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This book is designed to be a practical study in infectious disease dynamics. The book offers an easy to follow implementation and analysis of mathematical epidemiology. The book focuses on recent case studies in order to explore various conceptual, mathematical, and statistical issues. The dynamics of infectious diseases shows a wide diversity of pattern. Some have locally persistent chains-of-transmission, others persist spatially in ‘consumer-resource metapopulations’. Some infections are prevalent among the young, some among the old and some are age-invariant. Temporally, some diseases have little variation in prevalence, some have predictable seasonal shifts and others exhibit violent epidemics that may be regular or irregular in their timing. Models and ‘models-with-data’ have proved invaluable for understanding and predicting this diversity, and thence help improve intervention and control. Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics has a very rich history in epidemiology. The field has seen broad expansions of theories as well as a surge in real-life application of mathematics to dynamics and control of infectious disease. The chapters of Epidemics: Models and Data using R have been organized in a reasonably logical way: Chapters 1-10 is a mix and match of models, data and statistics pertaining to local disease dynamics; Chapters 11-13 pertains to spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics; Chapter 14 highlights similarities between the dynamics of infectious disease and parasitoid-host dynamics; Finally, Chapters 15 and 16 overview additional statistical methodology useful in studies of infectious disease dynamics. This book can be used as a guide for working with data, models and ‘models-and-data’ to understand epidemics and infectious disease dynamics in space and time.

Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases
Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases

Author: O. Diekmann

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2000-04-07

Total Pages: 324

ISBN-13: 9780471492412

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Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases Model Building, Analysis and Interpretation O. Diekmann University of Utrecht, The Netherlands J. A. P. Heesterbeek Centre for Biometry Wageningen, The Netherlands The mathematical modelling of epidemics in populations is a vast and important area of study. It is about translating biological assumptions into mathematics, about mathematical analysis aided by interpretation and about obtaining insight into epidemic phenomena when translating mathematical results back into population biology. Model assumptions are formulated in terms of, usually stochastic, behaviour of individuals and then the resulting phenomena, at the population level, are unravelled. Conceptual clarity is attained, assumptions are stated clearly, hidden working hypotheses are attained and mechanistic links between different observables are exposed. Features: * Model construction, analysis and interpretation receive detailed attention * Uniquely covers both deterministic and stochastic viewpoints * Examples of applications given throughout * Extensive coverage of the latest research into the mathematical modelling of epidemics of infectious diseases * Provides a solid foundation of modelling skills The reader will learn to translate, model, analyse and interpret, with the help of the numerous exercises. In literally working through this text, the reader acquires modelling skills that are also valuable outside of epidemiology, certainly within population dynamics, but even beyond that. In addition, the reader receives training in mathematical argumentation. The text is aimed at applied mathematicians with an interest in population biology and epidemiology, at theoretical biologists and epidemiologists. Previous exposure to epidemic concepts is not required, as all background information is given. The book is primarily aimed at self-study and ideally suited for small discussion groups, or for use as a course text.

Mathematical Models in Epidemiology
Mathematical Models in Epidemiology

Author: Fred Brauer

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-10-10

Total Pages: 628

ISBN-13: 1493998285

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The book is a comprehensive, self-contained introduction to the mathematical modeling and analysis of disease transmission models. It includes (i) an introduction to the main concepts of compartmental models including models with heterogeneous mixing of individuals and models for vector-transmitted diseases, (ii) a detailed analysis of models for important specific diseases, including tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, influenza, Ebola virus disease, malaria, dengue fever and the Zika virus, (iii) an introduction to more advanced mathematical topics, including age structure, spatial structure, and mobility, and (iv) some challenges and opportunities for the future. There are exercises of varying degrees of difficulty, and projects leading to new research directions. For the benefit of public health professionals whose contact with mathematics may not be recent, there is an appendix covering the necessary mathematical background. There are indications which sections require a strong mathematical background so that the book can be useful for both mathematical modelers and public health professionals.