Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-04-02

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 1447150104

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Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena. The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include: multi-layer perceptron neural networks radial basis functions support vector machines rough sets genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization simulated annealing multi-agent system incremental learning fuzzy networks Signal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics, and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.


Condition Monitoring Using Computational Intelligence Methods

Condition Monitoring Using Computational Intelligence Methods

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-01-23

Total Pages: 247

ISBN-13: 1447123794

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Condition Monitoring Using Computational Intelligence Methods promotes the various approaches gathered under the umbrella of computational intelligence to show how condition monitoring can be used to avoid equipment failures and lengthen its useful life, minimize downtime and reduce maintenance costs. The text introduces various signal-processing and pre-processing techniques, wavelets and principal component analysis, for example, together with their uses in condition monitoring and details the development of effective feature extraction techniques classified into frequency-, time-frequency- and time-domain analysis. Data generated by these techniques can then be used for condition classification employing tools such as: • fuzzy systems; rough and neuro-rough sets; neural and Bayesian networks;hidden Markov and Gaussian mixture models; and support vector machines.


Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 2: Optimization And Decision Making

Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 2: Optimization And Decision Making

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2019-11-21

Total Pages: 321

ISBN-13: 981120568X

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Building on , this volume on Optimization and Decision Making covers a range of algorithms and their applications. Like the first volume, it provides a starting point for machine learning enthusiasts as a comprehensive guide on classical optimization methods. It also provides an in-depth overview on how artificial intelligence can be used to define, disprove or validate economic modeling and decision making concepts.


Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 1: Foundation Of Artificial Intelligence

Handbook Of Machine Learning - Volume 1: Foundation Of Artificial Intelligence

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2018-10-22

Total Pages: 329

ISBN-13: 9813271248

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This is a comprehensive book on the theories of artificial intelligence with an emphasis on their applications. It combines fuzzy logic and neural networks, as well as hidden Markov models and genetic algorithm, describes advancements and applications of these machine learning techniques and describes the problem of causality. This book should serves as a useful reference for practitioners in artificial intelligence.


Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Finance Theories

Artificial Intelligence in Economics and Finance Theories

Author: Tankiso Moloi

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-05-07

Total Pages: 131

ISBN-13: 3030429628

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As Artificial Intelligence (AI) seizes all aspects of human life, there is a fundamental shift in the way in which humans are thinking of and doing things. Ordinarily, humans have relied on economics and finance theories to make sense of, and predict concepts such as comparative advantage, long run economic growth, lack or distortion of information and failures, role of labour as a factor of production and the decision making process for the purpose of allocating resources among other theories. Of interest though is that literature has not attempted to utilize these advances in technology in order to modernize economic and finance theories that are fundamental in the decision making process for the purpose of allocating scarce resources among other things. With the simulated intelligence in machines, which allows machines to act like humans and to some extent even anticipate events better than humans, thanks to their ability to handle massive data sets, this book will use artificial intelligence to explain what these economic and finance theories mean in the context of the agent wanting to make a decision. The main feature of finance and economic theories is that they try to eliminate the effects of uncertainties by attempting to bring the future to the present. The fundamentals of this statement is deeply rooted in risk and risk management. In behavioural sciences, economics as a discipline has always provided a well-established foundation for understanding uncertainties and what this means for decision making. Finance and economics have done this through different models which attempt to predict the future. On its part, risk management attempts to hedge or mitigate these uncertainties in order for “the planner” to reach the favourable outcome. This book focuses on how AI is to redefine certain important economic and financial theories that are specifically used for the purpose of eliminating uncertainties so as to allow agents to make informed decisions. In effect, certain aspects of finance and economic theories cannot be understood in their entirety without the incorporation of AI.


Artificial Intelligence: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications

Artificial Intelligence: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications

Author: Management Association, Information Resources

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2016-12-12

Total Pages: 3095

ISBN-13: 152251760X

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Ongoing advancements in modern technology have led to significant developments in artificial intelligence. With the numerous applications available, it becomes imperative to conduct research and make further progress in this field. Artificial Intelligence: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications provides a comprehensive overview of the latest breakthroughs and recent progress in artificial intelligence. Highlighting relevant technologies, uses, and techniques across various industries and settings, this publication is a pivotal reference source for researchers, professionals, academics, upper-level students, and practitioners interested in emerging perspectives in the field of artificial intelligence.


Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-10-20

Total Pages: 178

ISBN-13: 3319114247

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Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.


Finite Element Model Updating Using Computational Intelligence Techniques

Finite Element Model Updating Using Computational Intelligence Techniques

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2010-06-04

Total Pages: 254

ISBN-13: 1849963231

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FEM updating allows FEMs to be tuned better to reflect measured data. It can be conducted using two different statistical frameworks: the maximum likelihood approach and Bayesian approaches. This book applies both strategies to the field of structural mechanics, using vibration data. Computational intelligence techniques including: multi-layer perceptron neural networks; particle swarm and GA-based optimization methods; simulated annealing; response surface methods; and expectation maximization algorithms, are proposed to facilitate the updating process. Based on these methods, the most appropriate updated FEM is selected, a problem that traditional FEM updating has not addressed. This is found to incorporate engineering judgment into finite elements through the formulations of prior distributions. Case studies, demonstrating the principles test the viability of the approaches, and. by critically analysing the state of the art in FEM updating, this book identifies new research directions.


Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence

Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence

Author: Tshilidzi Marwala

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2021-03-31

Total Pages: 272

ISBN-13: 0128209445

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Intelligent machines are populating our social, economic and political spaces. These intelligent machines are powered by Artificial Intelligence technologies such as deep learning. They are used in decision making. One element of decision making is the issue of rationality. Regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) require that decisions that are made by these intelligent machines are explainable. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence proposes that explainable decisions are good but the explanation must be rational to prevent these decisions from being challenged. Noted author Tshilidzi Marwala studies the concept of machine rationality and compares this to the rationality bounds prescribed by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon and rationality bounds derived from the work of Nobel Laureates Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman. Rational Machines and Artificial Intelligence describes why machine rationality is flexibly bounded due to advances in technology. This effectively means that optimally designed machines are more rational than human beings. Readers will also learn whether machine rationality can be quantified and identify how this can be achieved. Furthermore, the author discusses whether machine rationality is subjective. Finally, the author examines whether a population of intelligent machines collectively make more rational decisions than individual machines. Examples in biomedical engineering, social sciences and the financial sectors are used to illustrate these concepts. - Provides an introduction to the key questions and challenges surrounding Rational Machines, including, When do we rely on decisions made by intelligent machines? What do decisions made by intelligent machines mean? Are these decisions rational or fair? Can we quantify these decisions? and Is rationality subjective? - Introduces for the first time the concept of rational opportunity costs and the concept of flexibly bounded rationality as a rationality of intelligent machines and the implications of these issues on the reliability of machine decisions - Includes coverage of Rational Counterfactuals, group versus individual rationality, and rational markets - Discusses the application of Moore's Law and advancements in Artificial Intelligence, as well as developments in the area of data acquisition and analysis technologies and how they affect the boundaries of intelligent machine rationality