Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.
The secret to making the right call in an increasingly complex world The decisions we make every day – frequently automatic and incredibly fast – impact every area of our lives. The Little Black Book of Decision Making delves into the cognition behind decision making, guiding you through the different ways your mind approaches various scenarios. You'll learn to notice that decision making is a matter of balance between your rational side and your intuition – the trick is in honing your intuition to steer you down the right path. Pure reasoning cannot provide all of the answers, and relying solely on intuition could prove catastrophic in business. There must be a balance between the two, and the proportions may change with each situation. This book helps you quickly pinpoint the right mix of logic and 'gut feeling,' and use it to find the best possible solution. Balance logic and intuition in your decision making approach Avoid traps set by the mind's inherent bias Understand the cognitive process of decision making Sharpen your professional judgement in any situation Decision making is the primary difference between organisations that lead and those that struggle. The Little Black Book of Decision Making helps you uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgement.
Many complex systems in civil and military operations are highly automated with the intention of supporting human performance in difficult cognitive tasks involving information processing. The complex systems can involve teams or individuals working on real-time tasks where a number of constraints must be satisfied. Decision Making in Complex Environments addresses the role of the human, the technology and the processes in complex socio-technical and technological systems.
Unlike other publications on decision making, the book focuses on discovering the problem, analyzing it and on developing and assessing solution options. One whole chapter describes a case study. It illustrates how the proposed decision making procedure is used in practice. Executives get an approach to systematically and successfully solving complex problems.
Making decisions is certainly the most important task managers are faced with, and it is often a very difficult one. This book offers a procedure for solving complex decision problems step by step. Unlike other texts, the book focuses on problem analysis, on developing potential solutions, and on establishing a decision-making matrix. In this fourth edition of the book, published under a new title, the authors present simplified, actionable guidelines that can be easily applied to the individual steps in the heuristic process. The book is intended for decision-makers at companies, non-profit organizations and in public administration whose work involves complex problems. It will also benefit students and participants in executive courses.
*International Book Awards Finalist It can be messy and overwhelming to figure out how to solve thorny problems. Where do you start? How do you know where to look for information and evaluate its quality and bias? How can you feel confident that you are making a careful and thoroughly researched decision? Whether you are deciding between colleges, navigating a career decision, helping your aging parents find the right housing, or expanding your business, Problem Solved will show you how to use the powerful AREA Method to make complex personal and professional decisions with confidence and conviction. Cheryl's AREA Method coaches you to make smarter, better decisions because it: Recognizes that research is a fundamental part of decision making and breaks down the process into a series of easy-to-follow steps. Solves for problematic mental shortcuts such as bias, judgment, and assumptions. Builds in strategic stops that help you chunk your learning, stay focused, and make your work work for you. Provides a flexible and repeatable process that acts as a feedback loop. Life is filled with uncertainty, but that uncertainty needn't hobble us. Problem Solved offers a proactive way to work with, and work through, ambiguity to make thoughtful, confident decisions despite our uncertain and volatile world.
Political and societal elites are increasingly confronted with complex environments in which they need to take collective decisions. Decision-makers are faced with policy issues situated at different intertwined levels which need to be negotiated with different actors. The negotiation and decision-making processes raise issues of legitimacy, leadership and communication. Modern societal systems are not only affected by horizontal specialization and diversity but also by a vertical expansion of governance layers. The national level is no longer the sole, or even the most important, level of governance. In these complex environments, cognitive abilities and personalities of political and societal elites have gained importance. This book addresses the impact of an increasingly complex environment on the legitimacy and transparency of polities, on the role of leadership and political personality and on motivated images, rhetoric and communication. Examining how these issues interact at the macro and theoretical level, the types of problems decision-makers face and how they communicate ideas with their audiences, it brings together leading experts in political psychology, law and political science to bridge the gap in the way these disciplines explore the issue of complex decision-making.
This book is about how to make decisions using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The basics of the theory are described in a clear, non-technical manner with many examples. It is suitable for business leaders and also is probably the best book for introducing the AHP to students at the college and graduate level. In this fifth printing of the book the reader will find a new appendix containing real-life applications that validate the use of the fundamental scale of the AHP.
Finalist in the Business/Personal Finance category of the 2019 International Book Awards Every day, people around the world make financial decisions. They choose to invest in a stock, sell their holdings in a mutual fund or buy a condominium. These decisions are complex and financially tricky—even for financial professionals. But the literature available on financial research is dated and narrowly focused without any real practical application. Until now there's been a gap in the literature: a book that shows you how to conduct a step by step comprehensive financial investigation that ends in a decision. This book gives you that how. Investing in Financial Research is a guidebook for conducting financial investigations and lays out Cheryl Strauss Einhorn's AREA Method—a research and decision-making system that uniquely controls for bias, focuses on the incentives of others and expands knowledge while improving judgement—and applies it to investigating financial situations. AREA is applicable to all sorts of financial sleuthing, whether for investment analysis or investigative journalism. It allows you to be the expert in your own life. The AREA Method provides you with: *Defined tasks that guide and focus your research on your vision of success; *A structure that isolates your sources, giving you insight into their perspectives, biases and incentives; *Investigative resources, tips and techniques to upgrade your research and analysis beyond document-based sources; *Exercises to foster creativity and originality in your thinking; *A sequence and framework that brings your disparate pieces of research together to build your confidence and conviction about your financial decision.
Outlines an approach to high-performance problem solving and decision making that draws on insights from survival guides, pop culture, and other sources.
