Commodity Prices, Aid and Debt

Commodity Prices, Aid and Debt

Author: Moḥ. Ābadura Rājjāka

Publisher: Commonwealth Secretariat

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 186

ISBN-13: 9780850928204

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This study reveals the extent of persistent downward trends in commodity prices on least developed countries (LDCs), small vulnerable states (SVSs) and heavily indebted countries (HIPCs) and proposes a Joint Diversification Scheme exclusively for export diversification schemes in the commoditydependent poor countries. The report also proposes and outlines the establishment of a Joint Diversification Fund, in addition to regular aid flows as a longterm solution.


Commodity Prices, Aid and Debt

Commodity Prices, Aid and Debt

Author: Moḥ. Ābadura Rājjāka

Publisher:

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 161

ISBN-13: 9781848598676

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This study reveals the extent of persistent downward trends in commodity prices on least developed countries (LDCs), small vulnerable states (SVSs) and heavily indebted countries (HIPCs) and proposes a Joint Diversification Scheme exclusively for export diversification schemes in the commoditydependent poor countries. The report also proposes and outlines the establishment of a Joint Diversification Fund, in addition to regular aid flows as a longterm solution.


Commodity Prices and Development

Commodity Prices and Development

Author: Roman Grynberg

Publisher: OUP Oxford

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 0191528560

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More than 50 developing countries depend on three or fewer commodities for more than half of their exports and, in fact, many rely on a single commodity for a large share of export earnings. This reliance inevitability exposes countries to the risk of export earnings instability as a result of price shocks and, perhaps even more significantly, the falling purchasing power of exports over the long run due to declining real prices. Presenting for the first time a complete analysis of the issues surrounding commodity prices and development, this book is the culmination of three years of research commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat to look at various aspects of commodity prices. The problems faced by commodity dependent developing countries are formidable. Although diversification is the most appropriate response to the problem of the secular decline in commodity prices, long-term transformation in the economy can be a slow process and its success will depend on a host of factors such as the development of human resources, institutional capacity building, poverty alleviation, and appropriate domestic policy and environment. By granting increased aid flows and debt relief, and providing assistance to encourage production of non-traditional export items, the international community can play a proactive role in the development of the commodity dependent poor countries. Only concerted efforts both at the domestic fronts of these countries and via co-operation extended by the international community can help mitigate the problems of the world's most vulnerable economies.


How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices

How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices

Author: Mr.Paulo A Medas

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-09-27

Total Pages: 18

ISBN-13: 147554281X

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Resource-rich countries have to manage highly volatile commodity revenues. In periods of revenue booms there is a tendency for large spending scale-ups. When facing large and persistent reductions in commodity prices, some of these countries will need to adjust their budgets to the new reality. In many cases, overall surpluses turn into large fiscal deficits and borrowing costs tend to rise with the fall in commodity prices. This note discusses how to undertake large fiscal adjustments, which often tend to be protracted and with long-lasting impacts on growth. Consequently, the note also highlights how to better prepare for future booms and busts in commodity prices.


Financial Instruments to Hedge Commodity Price Risk for Developing Countries

Financial Instruments to Hedge Commodity Price Risk for Developing Countries

Author: Yinqiu Lu

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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Many developing economies are heavily exposed to commodity markets, leaving them vulnerable to the vagaries of international commodity prices. This paper examines the use of commodity options-including plain vanilla, risk reversal, and barrier options-to hedge such risk. It then proposes the use of a new structured product-a sovereign Eurobond with an embedded option on a specific commodity price. By extracting commodity price risk out of the bond, such an instrument insulates the bond default risk from commodity price movements, allowing it to be marketed at a lower credit spread. The product is also designed to help developing countries establish a credit derivatives market, which would in turn enhance the marketability and liquidity of sovereign bonds.


International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt

Author: Mr.Rabah Arezki

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-03-01

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13: 1451963424

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We examine the effects that international commodity price shocks have on external debt using panel data for a world sample of 93 countries spanning the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that positive commodity price shocks lead to a significant reduction in the level of external debt in democracies, but to no significant reduction in the level of external debt in autocracies. To explain this result, we show that positive commodity price shocks lead to a statistically significant and quantitatively large increase in total government expenditures in autocracies. In democracies on the other hand government expenditures did not increase significantly. We also document that following positive windfalls from international commodity price shocks the risk of default on external debt decreased in democracies, but increased significantly in autocracies.


The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices

Author: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1994-01-01

Total Pages: 37

ISBN-13: 1451927223

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The “traditional structural approach” to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This framework, however, has been unable to explain the marked and sustained weakness in commodity prices during the 1980s and 1990s. This paper extends that framework in two important directions: First, it incorporates commodity supply in the analysis, capturing the impact on prices of the sharp increase in commodity exports of developing countries during the debt crisis of the 1980s. Second, we take a broader view of “world” demand that extends beyond the industrial countries and includes output developments in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The empirical results support these extensions, as both the fit of the model improves substantially and, more importantly, its ability to forecast increases markedly.


Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2021-03-03

Total Pages: 403

ISBN-13: 1464815453

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The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.