This report provides an assessment of how governments can generate inclusive economic growth in the short term, while making progress towards climate goals to secure sustainable long-term growth. It describes the development pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement objectives.
Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate -- infrastructure model based on stressor -- response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy-wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long-run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.
Climate change may damage road infrastructure, to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we incorporate a climate-infrastructure model based on stressor-response relationships directly into a recursive dynamic economy-wide model to estimate and compare road damages with other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambique and simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include damages to long-run assets, such as road infrastructure, imposed by climate change.
Increasing concerns over the effects of climate change have heightened the importance of accelerating investments in green growth. The International Energy Agency, for example, estimates that to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 50 percent by 2050, global investments in the energy sector alone will need to total US$750 billion a year by 2030 and over US$1.6 trillion a year from 2030-2050. Despite global efforts to mobilize required capital flows, the investments still fall far short. Bloomberg New Energy Finance argues that by 2020 investments will be US$150 billion short from the levels required simply to stabilize CO2 emissions. For the East Asia and Pacific region alone, the World Bank study Winds of Change suggests that additional investments of US$80 billion a year over the next two decades are required.Multiple factors affect green investments, often rendering them financially not attractive. Private investment flows, therefore, depend on public sectors interventions and support. As in many countries public sector resources are scarce and spread across many competing commitments, they need to be used judiciously and strategically to leverage sufficient private flows. Many governments, however, still lack a clear comprehensive framework for assessing green investment climate and formulating an efficient mix of measures to accelerate green investments and are unfamiliar with international funding sources that can be tapped. To address this challenge, the World Bank, with support from AusAID, conducts the work on improving the financing opportunities for green infrastructure investments among its client countries. This activity attempts to identify practical ways to value and monetize environmental externalities of investments and improve the promotion and bankability of green projects. This research report, as a key step in this activity, provides a structured compendium of ongoing leading initiatives and activities designed to accelerate private investment flows in green growth. It summarizes current investment challenges of green projects as well as proposed solutions, financing schemes and instruments, and initiatives that have set the stage for promoting green growth. The results of this work are intended to benefit the international community and policymakers who are seeking to deepen their knowledge of green investment environment. In addition, it is hoped that this work will be useful to practitioners, including fund managers and investors, seeking to have a better understanding of current trends, global initiatives, and available funding sources and mechanisms for financing green projects.
This report is a joint effort by the OECD, UN Environment and the World Bank Group, supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. It focuses on how governments can move beyond the current incremental approach to climate action.
Climate change may damage road infrastructure to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate change's consequences, we construct a climate-infrastructure model based on stressor-response relationships and link this to a recursive dynamic economy-wide modelto estimate and compare road damages to other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambiqueand simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. An adaptation policy of gradual evolution towards road designs that accommodate higher temperatures and follows rainfall trends (wetter or dryer) improves outcomes. At the same time, a generalized policy of upgrading all roads does not appear to be merited at this time. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include the damages on long-run assets, such as infrastructure, imposed by climate change. -- climate change ; infrastructure vulnerability ; productivity ; economic growth ; Mozambique
In a world on the brink of a global recession caused by the COVID-19 global pandemic, the infrastructure efforts of today and tomorrow are more crucial than ever.For one, they are an indispensable countercyclical tool to mitigate the negative effects of the economic paralysis.But they also constitute a pivotal component for a country’s development, raising its competitiveness in the long term. That is why infrastructure will continue to play a critical role even when the pandemic crisis has been tamed.Rapid demographic growth, increasing urbanization, especially in developing countries, coupled with the ounting challenge posed by climate change, are trends that are not going to disappear with the virus.How to cope with these global, long-term trends? How to finance the increasing need for infrastructure? Which major international actors will take the lead? And what role will technology play in shaping the future of infrastructure?
We propose a macroeconomic model to assess optimal public policy decisions in the the face of competing funding demands for climate change action versus traditional welfare-enhancing capital investment. How to properly delineate the costs and benefits of traditional versus adaption-focused development remains an open question. The paper places particular emphasis on the changing level of risk and vulnerabilities faced by developing countries as they allocate investment toward growth strategies, adapting to climate change and emissions mitigation.
Infrastructure is essential for development. This report presents a snapshot of the current condition of developing Asia's infrastructure---defined here as transport, power, telecommunications, and water supply and sanitation. It examines how much the region has been investing in infrastructure and what will likely be needed through 2030. Finally, it analyzes the financial and institutional challenges that will shape future infrastructure investment and development.
Climate change is a major threat to the sustainability and inclusiveness of our societies, and to the planet’s habitability. A just transition to a low-carbon economy is the only viable way forward. This paper reviews the climate change challenge. It stresses the criticality of systems changes (energy, transport, urban, land use, water) in a climate-challenged world, and the importance of infrastructure investment geared toward such systems changes. The key policies to enable the transition are: public spending on and investment frameworks for sustainable infrastructure, pricing carbon, regulations, promoting sustainable use of natural resources, scaling up and aligning finance with climate objectives, low-carbon industrial and innovation policies, building resilience and adaptation, better measurement of well-being and sustainability, and providing information and education on climate risks. Implemented well, climate action would unlock the inclusive growth story of the 21st century, making our societies more sustainable, inclusive, and prosperous.