China's Evolving Monetary Policy Rule
China's Evolving Monetary Policy Rule

Author: Eric Girardin

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13:

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This paper aims to enhance the understanding of China's monetary policy rule since the mid-1990s, focusing on the role of inflation. It investigates the rule followed by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) by considering both the structural economic transformation of China and its evolving monetary policy framework.Our newly constructed monthly composite discrete monetary policy index (MPI), which combines price, quantity and administrative instruments, shows a change in style towards smoother but more contractionary policy moves from 2002 onwards. The estimation of a dynamic discrete-choice model à la Monokroussos (2011) implies that, from this point onwards, the conduct of monetary policy has been characterised by implicit inflation targeting. While the PBoC's behaviour up to 2001 was reminiscent of that in the inflation-accommodating G3 economies of the United States, euro area and Japan up to 1979, it has been characterized since 2002 by a policy rule similar to the post-1979 anti-inflation (forward-looking) policy of the G3. An accurate estimation of the monetary policy rule from 2002 needs to consider China as an open economy, as a result of its rapid liberalisation of trade and finance after its WTO accession. As such, the influence of US interest rates has become increasingly significant for Chinese monetary policy.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-23

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 1498344062

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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Remaking Monetary Policy in China
Remaking Monetary Policy in China

Author: Michael Beggs

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-08-16

Total Pages: 125

ISBN-13: 9811397260

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This book covers the recent history of Chinese monetary policy. While most current work focuses on This book traces and explains the evolution of Chinese monetary policy in the years before 2008. The turn towards interest rate deregulation and market-oriented policy in China in recent years is often seen as a break with former command-and-control policy norms, in favour of Western central banking norms. We argue that Chinese monetary policy already went through a transformation under the influence of ‘new consensus’ macroeconomics after 1998, but that this surprisingly led to increased reliance on direct banking controls in the 2000s. Therefore, many of the controls that look to many like a remnant of central planning are in fact an outcome of an earlier attempt to ‘rationalise’ monetary policy, in unusual Chinese conditions. Specifically, policy returned to direct controls because of an underdeveloped interbank money market, and a glut of bank liquidity associated with enormous foreign exchange inflows in the mid-2000s.

China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime
China’s Evolving Exchange Rate Regime

Author: Mr.Sonali Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-07

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1498302025

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China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.

Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes
Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-05-03

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1498343694

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With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.

Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations
Monetary Policy Mistakes and the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

Author: Athanasios Orphanides

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1437935613

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What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? The authors use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. The authors document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. They show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Charts and tables.

Monetary Policy Reaction Function in China
Monetary Policy Reaction Function in China

Author: Camille Macaire

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 24

ISBN-13:

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This paper investigates the reaction function of the Chinese central bank, focusing on the variation in money supply as the main instrument for monetary policy. Monthly series are used for the 01/2000-12/2016 timeframe. Results show that the Chinese monetary policy displayed countercyclical reactions to prices and economic activity. On the contrary, it has been accommodative regarding equity prices, while fluctuations in the nominal effective exchange rate are found to be non-significant. A rolling window approach reveals that this has not been constant over time. Attention to growth was lower at the beginning and the end of the timeframe, while prices always remained at the foreground. Amongst major reforms, we show that the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect has had a significant impact on the conduct of monetary policy in China. We also empirically evaluate the effects of monetary policy through a vector autoregressive model. Impulse responses show that a monetary shock has a positive impact on prices and output. The effect on equity prices and the nominal exchange rate is not significant.

China 2049
China 2049

Author: David Dollar

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2020-06-09

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13: 0815738064

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How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.