This paper discusses some methodologies for estimating potential output and the output gap that have recently been studied at the Bank of Canada. The assumptions and econometric techniques used by the different methodologies are discussed in turn, and applications to Canadian data are presented. The first group of methods considered are those that simply use some implicit or explicit assumptions about the dynamics of real output to identify the output gap, including the Hodrick and Prescott filter for identifying the cyclical component of output. The second group consists of approaches that combine their assumptions with information from assumed or structural relationships between the output gap and other economic variables. The third class of methods uses multivariate rather than univariate dynamic relationships, often in combination with structural relationships from economic theory, to estimate output gap as a particular transitory component of real output.
This book, prepared by M.C. Urquhart, includes shapters on specific sectors of the economy by Alan G. Green, Thomas K. Rymes, Alastair Sinclair, and Marion Steele, and contributions by D.M. McDougall and R.M. McInnis. Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926: The Derivation of the Estimates will be an essential reference tool for further investigation into the new basic estimates, qualitative economic history, and Canadian Econometrics.
Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
The growth rate of national income has fluctuated widely in the United States since 1929. In this volume, Edward F. Denison uses the growth accounting methodology he pioneered and refined in earlier studies to track changes in the trend of output and its determinants. At every step he systematically distinguishes changes in the economy’s ability to produce--as measured by his series on potential national income--from changes in the ratio of actual output to potential output.Using data for earlier years as a backdrop, Denison focuses on the dramatic decline in the growth of potential national income that started in 1974 and was further accentuated beginning in 1980, and on the pronounced decline from business cycle to business cycle in the average ratio of actual to potential output, a slide under way since 1969. The decline in growth rates has been especially pronounced in national income per person employed and other productivity measures as growth of total outputhas slowed despite a sharp acceleration in growth of employment and total hours at work. Denison organizes his discussion around eight table that divide 1929-82 into three long periods (the last, 1973-82) and seven shorter periods (the most recent, 1973-79 and 1979-82). These tables provide estimates of the sources of growth for eight output measures in each period. Denison stresses that the 1973-82 period of slow growth in unfinished. He observes no improvement in the productivity trend, onlya weak cyclical recovery from a 1982 low. Sources-of-growth tables isolate the contributions made to growth between "input” and "output per unit of input.” Even so, it is not possible to quantify separately the contribution of all determinants, and Denison evaluates qualitatively the effects of other developments on the productivity slowdown.
Political legacy is a concept that is often tossed around casually, hastily defined by commentators long before a prime minister leaves office. In the case of the polarizing Stephen Harper, clear-eyed analysis of his tenure is hard to come by. The Harper Factor offers a refreshingly balanced look at the Conservative decade under his leadership. What impact did Harper have on the nation’s finances, on law and order, and on immigration? Did he accomplish what he promised to do in areas such as energy and intergovernmental affairs? How did he change the conduct of politics, the workings of the media, and Parliament? A diverse group of contributors, including veteran economists David Dodge and Richard Dion, immigration advocate Senator Ratna Omidvar, Stephen Harper’s former policy director Paul Wilson, award-winning journalists such as Susan Delacourt, and vice-provost of Aboriginal Initiatives at Lakehead University Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux, make reasoned cases for how Harper succeeded and how he fell short in different policy domains between 2006 and 2015. Stephen Harper’s record is decidedly more nuanced than both his admirers and detractors will concede. The Harper Factor provides an authoritative reference for Canadians on the twenty-second prime minister’s imprint on public policy while in office, and his political legacy for generations to come.
No two nations in the world are as integrated, economically and socially, as are the United States and Canada. We share geography, values and the largest unprotected border in the world. Regardless of this close friendship, our two countries are on a slow-motion collision course—with each other and with the rest of the world. While we wrestle with internal political gridlock and fiscal challenges and clash over border problems, the economies of the larger world change and flourish. Emerging economies sailed through the meltdown of 2008. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that by 2018, China's economy will be bigger than that of the United States; when combined with India, Japan and the four Asian Tigers—South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong--China's economy will be bigger than that of the G8 (minus Japan). Rather than continuing on this road to mutual decline, our two nations should chart a new course. Bestselling author Diane Francis proposes a simple and obvious solution: What if the United States and Canada merged into one country? The most audacious initiative since the Louisiana Purchase would solve the biggest problems each country expects to face: the U.S.'s national security threats and declining living standards; and Canada's difficulty controlling and developing its huge land mass stemming from a lack of capital, workers, technology and military might. Merger of the Century builds both a strong political argument and a compelling business case, treating our two countries not only as sovereign entities but as merging companies. We stand on the cusp of a new world order. Together, by marshalling resources and combining efforts, Canada and America have a greater chance of succeeding. As separate nations, the future is in much greater doubt indeed.
Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.
This paper develops a measure of investment in education from the literacy level of labour market entrants, using the 1994 International Adult Literacy Survey.
