This paper provides estimates of output multipliers for spending in clean energy and biodiversity conservation, as well as for spending on non-ecofriendly energy and land use activities. Using a new international dataset, we find that every dollar spent on key carbon-neutral or carbon-sink activities can generate more than a dollar’s worth of economic activity. Although not all green and non-ecofriendly expenditures in the dataset are strictly comparable due to data limitations, estimated multipliers associated with spending on renewable and fossil fuel energy investment are comparable, and the former (1.1-1.5) are larger than the latter (0.5-0.6) with over 90 percent probability. These findings survive several robustness checks and lend support to bottom-up analyses arguing that stabilizing climate and reversing biodiversity loss are not at odds with continuing economic advances.
Given the industrialized world’s historical dependence on fossil fuel-based energy resources and the now-realized perils of moving beyond the earth’s carbon budget, this book explores the myriad challenges of climate change and in reaching a low-carbon economy. Reconciling the medium-term competing, yet frequently complementary, needs for transition policies, the book provides guidelines for complex and often conflicting climate policy tasks. The book presents empirical trends in the use of carbon-emitting resources and evaluates market-driven short-termism and its adverse impact on resource use and the environment; it emphasizes a medium-term macroeconomic perspective for the transition. The authors attempt a paradigm shift towards a framework of sustainable macroeconomics. They survey relevant historical models, conduct empirical and numerical analyses of the climate change-relevant dynamic models, provide empirical illustrations, and evaluate diverse policy options and implementations together with their historical evolution. New analytical issues are also considered, e.g., strategic behavior in the energy and resource sectors, energy competition and the dynamics of market shares in new energy technology, and supporting policies for dealing with the tipping points encountered in climate change. The authors suggest a multitude of market-based strategies and public fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, and longer-run planning for resource extraction -all suitable for driving sustainable growth and a transformation of the energy sector. The book also examines the multiple delaying forces slowing the transition to a low-carbon economy; these typically arise from short-termism, lock-ins, irreversibility, leakages, non-cooperative games, and other political strategies. Thus, they explain the snail’s pace evolution of current national and global climate policies. The book will appeal to scholars and students of economics and environmental science. It is also relevant for policymakers and practitioners in multilateral institutions, research institutions as well as governments and ministries of countries interested in alternative energy sources, climate economists, and those who study the implementation of sustainable and low carbon-based policies.
While economic and social indicators in many Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have improved over the past three decades, the region’s blue natural assets—clean air, healthy seas, and coastlines—have degraded virtually everywhere. Air pollution levels in the region’s cities are among the highest in the world. Per capita marine plastic pollution is among the highest in the world; coastal erosion rates are the second fastest in the world. These combined challenges threaten local communities, livelihoods, and economies. In fact, the economic cost of MENA’s deteriorating skies and seas is estimated at more than 3 percent of GDP per year. Blue Skies, Blue Seas: Air Pollution, Marine Plastics, and Coastal Erosion in the Middle East and North Africa reviews integrated solutions that the authors identify as the “four I’s†?: • Inform stakeholders about the sources of these challenges. • Provide incentives that improve environmental outcomes for the public and the private sector. • Strengthen institutions to lower air and plastic pollution and to mitigate uncontrolled development and erosion of coastlines. • Invest in abatement options and promote sustainable solutions. Restoring MENA’s blue skies and seas will benefit the health, livelihoods, and incomes of residents. There will inevitably be trade-offs, but choosing a path of green growth will create jobs, diversify economies, and make the region a better place for current and future generations. The actions of policy makers today will shape the trajectory of economies and communities for decades to come.
Successive crises including COVID-19, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine and the climate emergency are exacerbating inequalities between and within countries and stifling progress to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement. While developed countries deployed historic stimulus packages to build back better, developing countries lacked fiscal and monetary buffers to respond. Countries with the fewest resources face challenging trade-offs between short-term rescue and long-term financing for a sustainable recovery.
Public support mechanisms for agriculture in many cases hinder the transformation towards healthier, more sustainable, equitable, and efficient food systems, thus actively steering us away from meeting the Sustainable Development Goals and targets of the Paris Agreement. This report sets out the compelling case for repurposing harmful agricultural producer support to reverse this situation, by optimizing the use of scarce public resources, strengthening economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, and ultimately driving a food systems transformation that can support global sustainable development commitments. The report provides policymakers with an updated estimate of past and current agricultural producer support for 88 countries, projected up until 2030. The trends emerging from the analysis are a clear call for action at country, regional and global levels to phase out the most distortive, environmentally and socially harmful support, such as price incentives and coupled subsidies, and redirecting it towards investments in public goods and services for agriculture, such as research and development and infrastructure, as well as decoupled fiscal subsidies. Overall, the analysis highlights that, while removing and/or reducing harmful agricultural support is necessary, repurposing initiatives that include measures to minimize policy trade-offs will be needed to ensure a beneficial outcome overall. The report confirms that, while a few countries have started repurposing and reforming agricultural support, broader, deeper, and faster reforms are needed for food systems transformation. Thus, it provides guidance (in six steps) on how governments can repurpose agricultural producer support – and the reforms this will take.
Nearly all countries in the Middle East and Central Asia have pledged to contain greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Paris Agreement. The purpose of this paper is to identify the menu of fiscal policy options which would allow the region to fulfil its missions reduction commitment. Specifically, the paper examines and estimates the tradeoff between two broad categories of fiscal policies: public investments in renewable sources of energy and measures that raise the effective price of fossil fuels. Such a dichotomy captures the key medium-term macroeconomic and long-term intergenerational trade-offs that are arguably the most pertinent for the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia where governments are likely to play a leading role in the low-carbon transition. At one end of this tradeoff, a gradual removal of all fuel subsidies and, in addition, a phased introduction of a carbon tax of $8 per metric-ton of CO2-equivalent in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and $4 in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) over the next eight years could achieve the region’s 2030 emissions abatement goals without additional investments in renewables. T Alternatively, additional combined public investments of close to US$900 billion in renewable sources of energy between 2023 and 2030 would allow achieving the region’s emissions reduction targets with fuel subsidies reduced by two thirds and without any carbon tax. In practice, most countries are likely to choose a mix of these policies based on their individual circumstances. Importantly, the deployment of non-fiscal mitigation policies—such as tightening of environmental regulations, such as raising emissions standards, or incentivizing green private investments—could play an important role in reducing the required fiscal effort and improving the tradeoff described above. Global and regional initiatives to provide affordable financial support and technological assistance would be equally important in improving the region’s economic options. Regardless of the chosen strategy, delaying the rollout of mitigation policies would make achieving the emissions reduction targets more difficult and costly. Therefore, an early start will be essential to tread a smoother path toward a low-carbon future in the Middle East and Central Asia.
Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with lasting adverse macroeconomic effects, especially on economic growth and poverty. Successive shocks from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic have increased food prices and depressed incomes, raising the number of people suffering from high malnutrition and unable to meet basic food consumption needs by at least 30 percent to 123 million in 2022 or 12 percent of SSA’s population. Addressing the lack of resilience to climate change—that critically underlies food insecurity in SSA—will require careful policy prioritization against a backdrop of financing and capacity constraints. This paper presents some key considerations and examples of tradeoffs and complementarities across policies to address food insecurity. Key findings include (1) Fiscal policies focused on social assistance and efficient public infrastructure investment can improve poorer households’ access to affordable food, facilitate expansion of climate-resilient and green agricultural production, and support quicker recovery from adverse climate events; (2) Improving access to finance is key to stepping up private investment in agricultural resilience and productivity as well as improving the earning capacity and food purchasing power of poorer rural and urban households; and (3) Greater regional trade integration, complemented with resilient transport infrastructure, enables sales of one country’s bumper harvests to its neighbors’ facing shortages. The international community can help with financial assistance—especially for the above-mentioned social assistance and key infrastructure areas—capacity development, and facilitating transfers of technology and know-how.
Rethinking fiscal and monetary policy in an economic environment of high debt and low interest rates. Policy makers in advanced economies find themselves in an unusual fiscal environment: debt ratios are historically high, and—once the fight against inflation is won—real interest rates will likely be very low again. This combination calls for a rethinking of the role of fiscal and monetary policy—and this is just what Olivier Blanchard proposes in Fiscal Policy under Low Interest Rates. There is a wide set of opinions about the direction that fiscal policy should take. Some, pointing to the high debt levels, make debt reduction an absolute priority. Others, pointing to the low interest rates, are less worried; they suggest that there is still fiscal space, and, if justified, further increases in debt should not be ruled out. Blanchard argues that low interest rates decrease not only the fiscal costs of debt but also the welfare costs of debt. At the same time, he shows how low rates decrease the room to maneuver in monetary policy—and thus increase the benefits of using fiscal policy, including deficits and debt, for macroeconomic stabilization. In short, low rates imply lower costs and higher benefits of debt. Having sketched what optimal policy looks like, Blanchard considers three examples of fiscal policy in action: fiscal consolidation in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, the large increase in debt in Japan, and the current US fiscal and monetary policy mix. His conclusions hold practical implications for economic and fiscal policy makers, bankers, and politicians around the world.
This open access book traces the journey of nuclear law: its origins, how it has developed, where it is now, and where it is headed. As a discipline, this highly specialized body of law makes it possible for us to benefit from the life-saving applications of nuclear science and technology, including diagnosing cancer as well as avoiding and mitigating the effects of climate change. This book seeks to give readers a glimpse into the future of nuclear law, science and technology. It intends to provoke thought and discussion about how we can maximize the benefits and minimize the risks inherent in nuclear science and technology. This compilation of essays presents a global view in discipline as well as in geography. The book is aimed at representatives of governments -- including regulators, policymakers and lawmakers -- as well representatives of international organizations and the legal and insurance sectors. It will be of interest to all those keen to better understand the role of law in enabling the safe, secure, and peaceful use of nuclear technology around the world. The contributions in this book are written by leading experts, including the IAEA's Director General, and discuss the four branches of nuclear law -- safety, security, safeguards and nuclear liability -- and the interaction of nuclear law with other fields of national and international law.
