Boserupian pressure and agricultural mechanization in modern Ghana
Boserupian pressure and agricultural mechanization in modern Ghana

Author: Cossar, Frances

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-04-29

Total Pages: 32

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The adoption of machinery in agricultural production in Africa south of the Sahara has been far behind the level of mechanization found in Asia and Latin America. However, recent survey data have revealed high levels of machinery use in localized areas of cereal production in northern Ghana. A survey conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute, in partnership with the Savannah Agriculture Research Institute, found that in some areas more than 80 percent of farmers were using machinery for at least one operation. This paper considers the theoretical drivers of agricultural intensification, as outlined by Boserup, Pingali, and Binswanger, and the extent to which they are able to explain the spatial variation in machinery use found in northern Ghana. Population pressure, market access, and agroecological conditions are considered key drivers that cause farmers to find ways to increase productivity and adopt new technologies. Combining survey data with geospatial datasets, the empirical analysis finds that population growth and travel time to the local urban center explain a significant and large proportion of the variation in machinery use by farmers.

Market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan’s wheat markets
Market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan’s wheat markets

Author: Ilyasov, Jarilkasin

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-08-05

Total Pages: 32

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The extent of market integration and transmission of food price shocks is a major determinant of price stability and overall food security, particularly in developing countries. Few studies have examined these issues for countries in Central Asia, however. This paper aims to fill this gap by examining wheat market integration and price transmission in Tajikistan, the most food-insecure country in Central Asia. In particular, in this study we measure how well wheat market prices in Tajikistan are integrated with international and regional markets, as well as domestically with each other. Subsequently, we assess the nature of price transmission between these markets. Using horizontal price transmission analysis and asymmetric price relationships, a.k.a. rockets and feathers, we demonstrate how prices change in peripheral food-shortage markets compared to markets located in zones with abundant local production.

Global and regional pulse economies
Global and regional pulse economies

Author: Joshi, Pramod Kumar

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-07-22

Total Pages: 149

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The pulse sector is undergoing dynamic changes globally and in several regions and countries to meet the challenge of growing demand in the face of sluggish production growth. Realizing the importance of pulses in the human diet, 2016 has been declared the International Year of Pulses (IYP). This report captures the dynamics of the pulse sector during the last three decades. The examination of pulse supply, demand, uses, trade, prices, and outlook would help researchers and policy makers make more informed decisions related to the sector. Pulse-based food is an important source of dietary protein and essential minerals, particularly for the vegetarian population. At the global level, the average share of pulses is only 5 percent of the total protein consumption but their contribution in several developing countries range between 10 and 40 percent. To meet the growing demand and raise their per capita availability, countries made efforts to increase production and explore trade opportunities to augment domestic supply. Overall between 1980 and 2013, pulses production at the global level grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent but there were, however, two phases of pulses production at the global level. While there was almost a period of stagnation in production of pulses during the1990s, production has sharply increased since 2005. The bulk of the increase in production came from developing countries where both area and yield growth (from a low base) contributed to the production. For developed countries—where production also grew—the center of production shifted from Europe to North America and Oceania. For developing countries, two new centers of production emerged in Eastern Africa and Southeastern Asia (Myanmar).

The distribution of power and household behavior
The distribution of power and household behavior

Author: Wouterse, Fleur Stephanie

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-08-12

Total Pages: 28

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Niger is a landlocked Sahelian country, two-thirds of which is in the Sahara desert. Although only one-eighth of the land considered arable, more than 90 percent of Niger’s labor force is employed in agriculture, which is predominantly subsistence oriented. Food security remains a major challenge in rural areas of Niger, and gender is a significant basis for the inequality among household members with respect to access to land. Access to land, which is a measure of the income-earning potential of an individual, is an important determinant of the distribution of bargaining power within the household. Because households may not act in a unitary manner when making decisions, the power of individuals within the household to exert their own preferences may determine welfare outcomes, such as spending on nutritious foods or healthcare. In this paper, we use new data for Niger and regression analyses to assess the importance of the intrahousehold distribution of power for the behavior of rural households. Our results reveal that men are significantly more empowered than women in rural households in Niger and that social protection programs such as water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and food-for-training contribute significantly to the empowerment of women. Our findings also point to the validity of the collective approach to modeling household behavior, as the distribution of power was shown to affect household behavior. In particular, we found that an increase in power in favor of the adult female significantly increases expenditures on healthcare and reduces spending on vices (cigarettes and alcohol).

Perceived land tenure security and rural transformation
Perceived land tenure security and rural transformation

Author: Ghebru, Hosaena

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-07-29

Total Pages: 32

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Tenure security is believed to be critical in spurring agricultural investment and productivity. Yet what improves or impedes tenure security is still poorly understood. Using household- and plot-level data from Ghana, this study analyzes the main factors associated with farmers’ perceived tenure security. Individually, farmers perceive greater tenure security on plots acquired via purchase or inheritance than on land allocated by traditional authorities. Collectively, however, perceived tenure security lessens in communities with more active land markets and economic vibrancy. Migrant households and women in polygamous households feel less secure about their tenure, while farmers with political connections are more confident about their tenure security.

A dynamic spatial model of agricultural price transmission
A dynamic spatial model of agricultural price transmission

Author: Goundan, Anatole

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-06-09

Total Pages: 28

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Spatial interactions are essential drivers of price transmission mechanisms and may significantly affect any food’s policy outcomes. However, spatial aspects seem to be generally overlooked when analyzing price transmission. This paper attempts to fill this gap by highlighting the usefulness of spatial interaction and models for market integration analysis. A spatial dynamic panel datamodel is presented and applied to Niger’s millet market. Empirical results show that (1) the millet market is partly integrated, (2) locally traded commodities (millet and sorghum) are linked by a cross-commodity price transmission, (3) most imported cereals prices, which for Niger is maize and rice, did not affect the millet market, and (4) no cross-regions price transmissionoccurred for the millet market.

Understanding compliance in programs promoting conservation agriculture
Understanding compliance in programs promoting conservation agriculture

Author: Ward, Patrick S.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-05-13

Total Pages: 28

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Land degradation and soil erosion have emerged as serious challenges to smallholder farmers throughout southern Africa. To combat these challenges, conservation agriculture (CA) is widely promoted as a sustainable package of agricultural practices. Despite the many potential benefits of CA, however, adoption remains low. Yet relatively little is known about the decision-making process in choosing to adopt CA. This article attempts to fill this important knowledge gap by studying CA adoption in southern Malawi. Unlike what is implicitly assumed when these packages of practices are introduced, farmers view adoption as a series of independent decisions rather than a single decision. Yet the adoption decisions are not wholly independent. We find strong evidence of interrelated decisions, particularly among mulching crop residues and practicing zero tillage, suggesting that mulching residues and intercropping or rotating with legumes introduces a multiplier effect on the adoption of zero tillage.

Labor adaptation to climate variability in Eastern Africa
Labor adaptation to climate variability in Eastern Africa

Author: Dou, Xiaoya

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-06-17

Total Pages: 32

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As countries design climate change adaptation policies, it is important to understand how workers alter behavior in response to changes in temperature. Nonetheless, the impact of temperature on labor markets is poorly documented, especially in Africa. We address this gap by analyzing panel surveys of labor choices by sector, contractual arrangement, and migration status in four East African countries. Merging survey information with high-resolution climate data, we assess how workers shift employment in response to temperature anomalies. Results suggest important distinctions between rural and urban areas. In urban areas, only agricultural self-employment and migration are responsive to temperature, with participation in both activities decreasing at high extremes. Urban out-migration is used as a tool to increase incomes in “good” years rather than an adaptation mechanism during bad years. In contrast, out-migration appears to be a means of adapting to high temperatures in rural areas, especially among households with relatively little agricultural land. The combined impact of these forces suggests that a 2 standard deviation increase in temperature results in a 7 percent increase in urban unemployment and no significant impact on rural unemployment.

The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa
The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa

Author: Rodrigues, Joao

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-08-05

Total Pages: 32

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There is growing interest within the climate change and development community in using seasonal forecast information to reduce the losses to agriculture resulting from climate variability, especially within food-insecure countries. However, forecast systems are expensive to establish and maintain, and therefore gauging the potential economic return to investments in forecast systems is crucial. Most studies that evaluate seasonal forecasts focus on developed countries and/or overlook agriculture’s economywide linkages. Yet forecasts may be more valuable in developing regions such as East Africa, where climate is variable and agriculture has macroeconomic importance. We use computable general equilibrium and process-based crop models to estimate the potential economywide value of national seasonal forecast systems in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Zambia. Stochastic seasonal simulations produce value distributions for forecasts of varying accuracy and varying levels of farm coverage. A timely and accurate forecast adopted by all farmers generates average regional income gains of US$113 million per year. Gains are much higher during extreme climate events and are generally pro-poor. The forecast value falls when forecast skill and farm coverage decline. National economic and trading structures, including the importance of agricultural exports, are found to be major determinants of forecast value. Economywide approaches are therefore needed to complement farm-level analysis when evaluating forecast systems in low-income agrarian economies.

Long-term drivers of food and nutrition security
Long-term drivers of food and nutrition security

Author: Laborde Debucquet, David

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2016-05-18

Total Pages: 44

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The 2015 Global Hunger Index suggests that despite progress in reducing hunger worldwide, hunger levels in 52 of 117 countries in the 2015 Global Hunger Index remain “serious” or “alarming.” Since achieving and maintaining food and nutrition security (FNS) remains a goal for all countries, it is important to understand the individual, national, and global factors that affect FNS. This paper proposes an analytical framework to identify and analyze the respective roles of key long-term drivers of FNS. We start by identifying what the key variables affecting FNS are at the household and country level, and then we continue by defining what the main exogenous or endogenous drivers affecting these variables are. We discuss the key drivers of both aggregated food supply and demand and therefore their impact on prices. Specifically, for aggregated food demand, we discuss demographic factors, income growth, changes in dietary preferences, aggregated domestic distortions, and overall quality of the food system. With respect to the drivers of aggregated food supply, we discuss land available for food products and the drivers behind land availability, the share of waste/losses generated by the food system, and the normalized average yield. We define yield as the amount of nutrients produced by unit of land. It depends both on the physical yield of the crop or the livestock and on the quality of the food produced. It also can be affected by the changes in production patterns linked to the different dietary patterns of the consumers and by climate change. We emphasize the fact that in many cases, key drivers may have ambiguous effects on the FNS situation of different agents. For instance, more liberal trade policies will affect real income, terms of trade, demand and supply, returns of factors, foreign direct investments, and food prices and thus may lead to the improvement of the global-level FNS, that is, the FNS of the majority of the population. At the same time, more liberal trade policies may bring food insecurity to some households. Therefore, careful quantitative assessment is needed for each policy option. Finally, we propose a typology of variables that will help modelers adapt their models to study the different drivers through both direct and indirect effects.