Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Author: Mr.Paul Cashin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-11-01

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13: 1451857292

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This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Author: Paul Anthony Cashin

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent `shape` to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Author: Paul Cashin

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices
Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices

Author: Mr. C. John McDermott

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-11-01

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 145190245X

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This paper examines the duration and magnitude of commodity-price cycles. It finds that for most commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they rebound in a subsequent boom. There is little evidence of a consistent ‘shape’ to commodity-price cycles. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.

The Impact of China on Global Commodity Prices
The Impact of China on Global Commodity Prices

Author: Masuma Farooki

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2013-06-17

Total Pages: 234

ISBN-13: 1136581979

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Drawing on a large number of diverse sources, How China Disrupted Global Commodities comprehensively and systematically evidences the trends in the prices of different sets of commodities, analyses the drivers of China’s demand for commodities the factors constraining global supply and in the role which the financialisation of commodities is playing in constraining commodity production. It also documents and the growing role of China as a foreign investor in the commodities sectors. All of these trends are woven together to explore the fabric of strategic choices confronting public and private sector decision-makers.

Commodity Terms of Trade
Commodity Terms of Trade

Author: Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-01-24

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13: 1484393856

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This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.

World Economic Outlook, May 2000
World Economic Outlook, May 2000

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2000-04-12

Total Pages: 308

ISBN-13: 9781557759368

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The World Economic Outlook, published twica a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

Commodity Markets and the Global Economy
Commodity Markets and the Global Economy

Author: Blake C. Clayton

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 1107042518

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This book provides a clear-eyed analysis of questions at the intersection of commodity markets, natural resource economics, and public policy.

World Economic Outlook, April 2011
World Economic Outlook, April 2011

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-04-11

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13: 1616350598

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The April 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the global prospects for economic growth in the face of policy challenges that remain unaddressed and new challenges now coming to the fore.The recovery is gaining strength, but unemployment remains high in advanced economies, and new macroeconomic risks are building in emerging market economies. In advanced economies, the handoff from public to private demand is advancing, reducing concerns that diminishing fiscal policy support might cause a “double-dip” recession. Financial conditions continue to improve, although they remain unusually fragile. In many emerging market economies, demand is robust and overheating is a growing policy concern. Rising food and commodities prices present new risks to the global economy. Two chapters directly explore these new challenges. Chapter 3 reviews the potential impact of oil scarcity on global growth, and Chapter 4 explores the potential response of international capital flows to changes in the global macroeconomic environment.

IMF Macroeconomic Research on Low-Income Countries
IMF Macroeconomic Research on Low-Income Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-01-30

Total Pages: 130

ISBN-13: 9781589062733

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Summarizes the for ward-looking analytical work program on macroeconomic issues related to the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper approach. The program is evolving through a process that began with a technical workshop; participants from low-income countries, donors, academia, and civil society drafted guidance on selected issues and identified priority research topics. Partners, policymakers, and economic scholars are encouraged to share their perspectives and findings through respective team leaders, whose e-mail addresses are provided. The publication also summarizes IMF analytical work, and contains a bibliography of nearly 1,000 papers.