Stopping a plague (even zombies), tomorrows likelihood of rain, and buying a lottery ticket are united by chance. Wildlife conservation, a baseball box score, and governmental spending are united by the need to record numbers. Statistics and probability measure the current state of something and the relative likelihood of potential future states. This book will explore how common experiences are counted, evaluated, and used to make intelligent decisions for the future based on uncertain outcomes.
Life can be unpredictable. And the more you can predict, the more control you will have over your own life. From calculating the health risks of smoking a pack of cigarettes a day to deciding on the best investments for your money, probabilities play a part in nearly all aspects of everyday life. Now, physics professor John D. McGervey puts all the facts and figures at your fingertips to help you make savvy, informed choices at home, at work, and at play. You will learn how the author believes you can: * Increase your chances of winning blackjack, contract bridge, horse racing, sports betting, and more * Get the most for your dollar when investing or buying insurance * Judge the risks of such common activities as smoking, using drugs, owning a handgun, and driving without a seat belt * Avoid faulty gambling systems and identify misleading statistics that can be used to draw you into poor investments * And much more. Inside you'll find a lively, entertaining, enlightening approach to minimizing your risks and maximizing your results -- simple strategies designed to give you the edge in life.
An engaging, entertaining, and informative introduction to probability and prediction in our everyday lives Although Probably Not deals with probability and statistics, it is not heavily mathematical and is not filled with complex derivations, proofs, and theoretical problem sets. This book unveils the world of statistics through questions such as what is known based upon the information at hand and what can be expected to happen. While learning essential concepts including "the confidence factor" and "random walks," readers will be entertained and intrigued as they move from chapter to chapter. Moreover, the author provides a foundation of basic principles to guide decision making in almost all facets of life including playing games, developing winning business strategies, and managing personal finances. Much of the book is organized around easy-to-follow examples that address common, everyday issues such as: How travel time is affected by congestion, driving speed, and traffic lights Why different gambling casino strategies ultimately offer players no advantage How to estimate how many different birds of one species are seen on a walk through the woods Seemingly random events—coin flip games, the Central Limit Theorem, binomial distributions and Poisson distributions, Parrando's Paradox, and Benford's Law—are addressed and treated through key concepts and methods in probability. In addition, fun-to-solve problems including "the shared birthday" and "the prize behind door number one, two, or three" are found throughout the book, which allow readers to test and practice their new probability skills. Requiring little background knowledge of mathematics, readers will gain a greater understanding of the many daily activities and events that involve random processes and statistics. Combining the mathematics of probability with real-world examples, Probably Not is an ideal reference for practitioners and students who would like to learn more about the role of probability and statistics in everyday decision making.
In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability, the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage, more explanations and examples and exercises, and a new chapter introducing Markov chains, making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own, and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need.
Statistics and Probability with Applications, Third Edition is the only introductory statistics text written by high school teachers for high school teachers and students. Daren Starnes, Josh Tabor, and the extended team of contributors bring their in-depth understanding of statistics and the challenges faced by high school students and teachers to development of the text and its accompanying suite of print and interactive resources for learning and instruction. A complete re-envisioning of the authors’ Statistics Through Applications, this new text covers the core content for the course in a series of brief, manageable lessons, making it easy for students and teachers to stay on pace. Throughout, new pedagogical tools and lively real-life examples help captivate students and prepare them to use statistics in college courses and in any career.
Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways OCo as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.
Suitable for self study Use real examples and real data sets that will be familiar to the audience Introduction to the bootstrap is included – this is a modern method missing in many other books
Unlike traditional introductory math/stat textbooks, Probability and Statistics: The Science of Uncertainty brings a modern flavor based on incorporating the computer to the course and an integrated approach to inference. From the start the book integrates simulations into its theoretical coverage, and emphasizes the use of computer-powered computation throughout.* Math and science majors with just one year of calculus can use this text and experience a refreshing blend of applications and theory that goes beyond merely mastering the technicalities. They'll get a thorough grounding in probability theory, and go beyond that to the theory of statistical inference and its applications. An integrated approach to inference is presented that includes the frequency approach as well as Bayesian methodology. Bayesian inference is developed as a logical extension of likelihood methods. A separate chapter is devoted to the important topic of model checking and this is applied in the context of the standard applied statistical techniques. Examples of data analyses using real-world data are presented throughout the text. A final chapter introduces a number of the most important stochastic process models using elementary methods. *Note: An appendix in the book contains Minitab code for more involved computations. The code can be used by students as templates for their own calculations. If a software package like Minitab is used with the course then no programming is required by the students.
This is the eBook of the printed book and may not include any media, website access codes, or print supplements that may come packaged with the bound book. Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life, Fourth Edition, provides students with a clear understanding of statistical concepts and ideas so they can become better critical thinkers and decision makers, whether they decide to start a business, plan for their financial future, or just watch the news. The authors bring statistics to life by applying statistical concepts to the real world situations, taken from news sources, the internet, and individual experiences. Note: This is the standalone book If you want the Book/Access Card you can order the ISBN below ALERT: Before you purchase, check with your instructor or review your course syllabus to ensure that you select the correct ISBN. Several versions of Pearson's MyLab & Mastering products exist for each title, including customized versions for individual schools, and registrations are not transferable. In addition, you may need a CourseID, provided by your instructor, to register for and use Pearson's MyLab & Mastering products. NOTE: Make sure to use the dashes shown on the Access Card Code when entering the code. Student can use the URL and phone number below to help answer their questions: http://247pearsoned.custhelp.com/app/home 800-677-6337 0321890132 / 9780321890139 Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life Plus NEW MyStatLab with Pearson eText -- Access Card Package 4/e Package consists of: 0321817621 / 9780321817624 Statistical Reasoning for Everyday Life 0321847997 / 9780321847997 My StatLab Glue-in Access Card 032184839X / 9780321848390 MyStatLab Inside Sticker for Glue-In Packages
This book moves systematically through the topic of applied probability from an introductory chapter to such topics as random variables and vectors, stochastic processes, estimation, testing and regression. The topics are well chosen and the presentation is enriched by many examples from real life. Each chapter concludes with many original, solved and unsolved problems and hundreds of multiple choice questions, enabling those unfamiliar with the topics to master them. Additionally appealing are historical notes on the mathematicians mentioned throughout, and a useful bibliography. A distinguishing character of the book is its thorough and succinct handling of the varied topics.
