Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation and Ensembles
Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation and Ensembles

Author: Michael Siek

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2011-12-16

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 041562102X

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Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas in the world to avoid and mitigate its destructive impacts. For this purpose the physically-based (process) numerical models are typically utilized. However, in data-rich cases, one may use data-driven methods aiming at reconstructing the internal patterns of the modelled processes and relationships between the observed descriptive variables. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory. First, some fundamentals of physical oceanography, nonlinear dynamics and chaos, computational intelligence and European operational storm surge models are covered. After that a number of improvements in building chaotic models are presented: nonlinear time series analysis, multi-step prediction, phase space dimensionality reduction, techniques dealing with incomplete time series, phase error correction, finding true neighbours, optimization of chaotic model, data assimilation and multi-model ensemble prediction. The major case study is surge prediction in the North Sea, with some tests on a Caribbean Sea case. The modelling results showed that the enhanced predictive chaotic models can serve as an efficient tool for accurate and reliable short and mid-term predictions of storm surges in order to support decision-makers for flood prediction and ship navigation.

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods
Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

Author: Fi-John Chang

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2019-02-28

Total Pages: 376

ISBN-13: 3038975486

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Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.

Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008
Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008

Author: Louise Wallendorf

Publisher:

Published: 2008

Total Pages: 1062

ISBN-13:

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This collection contains 90 papers presented at the Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008 conference, held in Turtle Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, April 13-16, 2008.

Next Generation Earth System Prediction
Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-08-22

Total Pages: 351

ISBN-13: 0309388805

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As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Meteorological Tsunamis: The U.S. East Coast and Other Coastal Regions
Meteorological Tsunamis: The U.S. East Coast and Other Coastal Regions

Author: Ivica Vilibić

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-11-16

Total Pages: 302

ISBN-13: 3319127128

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The book encompasses a set of papers on meteorological tsunamis covering various aspects on this rare but potentially destructive multiresonant phenomenon. Altogether an editorial and 15 contributions are part of this book; eight of the contributions deal with different aspects of meteotsunamis along the U.S. East Coast and in the region of the Great Lakes, including one paper introducing a new methodology in meteotsunami research. Seven more papers are documenting meteotsunamis in various coastal areas of the world oceans. All continents, except Antarctica, have been covered, with the authors representing 11 countries. Previously Published in Natural Hazards, Volume 74, No. 1, 2014

ASCE Combined Index
ASCE Combined Index

Author: American Society of Civil Engineers

Publisher:

Published: 1997

Total Pages: 1012

ISBN-13:

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Indexes materials appearing in the Society's Journals, Transactions, Manuals and reports, Special publications, and Civil engineering.

Dynamic Mode Decomposition
Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Author: J. Nathan Kutz

Publisher: SIAM

Published: 2016-11-23

Total Pages: 241

ISBN-13: 1611974496

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Data-driven dynamical systems is a burgeoning field?it connects how measurements of nonlinear dynamical systems and/or complex systems can be used with well-established methods in dynamical systems theory. This is a critically important new direction because the governing equations of many problems under consideration by practitioners in various scientific fields are not typically known. Thus, using data alone to help derive, in an optimal sense, the best dynamical system representation of a given application allows for important new insights. The recently developed dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is an innovative tool for integrating data with dynamical systems theory. The DMD has deep connections with traditional dynamical systems theory and many recent innovations in compressed sensing and machine learning. Dynamic Mode Decomposition: Data-Driven Modeling of Complex Systems, the first book to address the DMD algorithm, presents a pedagogical and comprehensive approach to all aspects of DMD currently developed or under development; blends theoretical development, example codes, and applications to showcase the theory and its many innovations and uses; highlights the numerous innovations around the DMD algorithm and demonstrates its efficacy using example problems from engineering and the physical and biological sciences; and provides extensive MATLAB code, data for intuitive examples of key methods, and graphical presentations.