This book has been written for undergraduate and graduate students in various disciplines of mathematics. The authors, internationally recognized experts in their field, have developed a superior teaching and learning tool that makes it easy to grasp new concepts and apply them in practice. The book’s highly accessible approach makes it particularly ideal if you want to become acquainted with the Bayesian approach to computational science, but do not need to be fully immersed in detailed statistical analysis.
The once esoteric idea of embedding scientific computing into a probabilistic framework, mostly along the lines of the Bayesian paradigm, has recently enjoyed wide popularity and found its way into numerous applications. This book provides an insider’s view of how to combine two mature fields, scientific computing and Bayesian inference, into a powerful language leveraging the capabilities of both components for computational efficiency, high resolution power and uncertainty quantification ability. The impact of Bayesian scientific computing has been particularly significant in the area of computational inverse problems where the data are often scarce or of low quality, but some characteristics of the unknown solution may be available a priori. The ability to combine the flexibility of the Bayesian probabilistic framework with efficient numerical methods has contributed to the popularity of Bayesian inversion, with the prior distribution being the counterpart of classical regularization. However, the interplay between Bayesian inference and numerical analysis is much richer than providing an alternative way to regularize inverse problems, as demonstrated by the discussion of time dependent problems, iterative methods, and sparsity promoting priors in this book. The quantification of uncertainty in computed solutions and model predictions is another area where Bayesian scientific computing plays a critical role. This book demonstrates that Bayesian inference and scientific computing have much more in common than what one may expect, and gradually builds a natural interface between these two areas.
Bayesian Modeling and Computation in Python aims to help beginner Bayesian practitioners to become intermediate modelers. It uses a hands on approach with PyMC3, Tensorflow Probability, ArviZ and other libraries focusing on the practice of applied statistics with references to the underlying mathematical theory. The book starts with a refresher of the Bayesian Inference concepts. The second chapter introduces modern methods for Exploratory Analysis of Bayesian Models. With an understanding of these two fundamentals the subsequent chapters talk through various models including linear regressions, splines, time series, Bayesian additive regression trees. The final chapters include Approximate Bayesian Computation, end to end case studies showing how to apply Bayesian modelling in different settings, and a chapter about the internals of probabilistic programming languages. Finally the last chapter serves as a reference for the rest of the book by getting closer into mathematical aspects or by extending the discussion of certain topics. This book is written by contributors of PyMC3, ArviZ, Bambi, and Tensorflow Probability among other libraries.
Master Bayesian Inference through Practical Examples and Computation–Without Advanced Mathematical Analysis Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
There has been dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inference in statistics. Berger (2000) documents the increase in Bayesian activity by the number of published research articles, the number of books,andtheextensivenumberofapplicationsofBayesianarticlesinapplied disciplines such as science and engineering. One reason for the dramatic growth in Bayesian modeling is the availab- ity of computational algorithms to compute the range of integrals that are necessary in a Bayesian posterior analysis. Due to the speed of modern c- puters, it is now possible to use the Bayesian paradigm to ?t very complex models that cannot be ?t by alternative frequentist methods. To ?t Bayesian models, one needs a statistical computing environment. This environment should be such that one can: write short scripts to de?ne a Bayesian model use or write functions to summarize a posterior distribution use functions to simulate from the posterior distribution construct graphs to illustrate the posterior inference An environment that meets these requirements is the R system. R provides a wide range of functions for data manipulation, calculation, and graphical d- plays. Moreover, it includes a well-developed, simple programming language that users can extend by adding new functions. Many such extensions of the language in the form of packages are easily downloadable from the Comp- hensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
This book provides an up-to-date treatment of the Monte Carlo method and develops a common framework under which various Monte Carlo techniques can be "standardized" and compared. It can be used as a textbook for a graduate-level course on Monte Carlo methods.
"...this edition is useful and effective in teaching Bayesian inference at both elementary and intermediate levels. It is a well-written book on elementary Bayesian inference, and the material is easily accessible. It is both concise and timely, and provides a good collection of overviews and reviews of important tools used in Bayesian statistical methods." There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian statistics. The authors continue to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inference for discrete random variables, binomial proportions, Poisson, and normal means, and simple linear regression. In addition, more advanced topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference for a normal with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for a Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for the Multiple Linear Regression Model; and Computational Bayesian Statistics including Markov Chain Monte Carlo. The inclusion of these topics will facilitate readers' ability to advance from a minimal understanding of Statistics to the ability to tackle topics in more applied, advanced level books. Minitab macros and R functions are available on the book's related website to assist with chapter exercises. Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition also features: Topics including the Joint Likelihood function and inference using independent Jeffreys priors and join conjugate prior The cutting-edge topic of computational Bayesian Statistics in a new chapter, with a unique focus on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods Exercises throughout the book that have been updated to reflect new applications and the latest software applications Detailed appendices that guide readers through the use of R and Minitab software for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, with all related macros available on the book's website Introduction to Bayesian Statistics, Third Edition is a textbook for upper-undergraduate or first-year graduate level courses on introductory statistics course with a Bayesian emphasis. It can also be used as a reference work for statisticians who require a working knowledge of Bayesian statistics.
Dealing with methods for sampling from posterior distributions and how to compute posterior quantities of interest using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, this book addresses such topics as improving simulation accuracy, marginal posterior density estimation, estimation of normalizing constants, constrained parameter problems, highest posterior density interval calculations, computation of posterior modes, and posterior computations for proportional hazards models and Dirichlet process models. The authors also discuss model comparisons, including both nested and non-nested models, marginal likelihood methods, ratios of normalizing constants, Bayes factors, the Savage-Dickey density ratio, Stochastic Search Variable Selection, Bayesian Model Averaging, the reverse jump algorithm, and model adequacy using predictive and latent residual approaches. The book presents an equal mixture of theory and applications involving real data, and is intended as a graduate textbook or a reference book for a one-semester course at the advanced masters or Ph.D. level. It will also serve as a useful reference for applied or theoretical researchers as well as practitioners.
These lecture notes provide a rapid, accessible introduction to Bayesian statistical methods. The course covers the fundamental philosophy and principles of Bayesian inference, including the reasoning behind the prior/likelihood model construction synonymous with Bayesian methods, through to advanced topics such as nonparametrics, Gaussian processes and latent factor models. These advanced modelling techniques can easily be applied using computer code samples written in Python and Stan which are integrated into the main text. Importantly, the reader will learn methods for assessing model fit, and to choose between rival modelling approaches.
