An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).
An Analysis of the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model).

Author: Allan Ray Walker

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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The Naval Personnel Pay Predictor (Enlisted Model) is used by the Bureau of Naval Personnel as a tool for predicting the total annual basic pay for the enlisted force as an input to the budget process. A major source of error in the model was found to be the prediction of the length of service (LOS) vector, and an attempt to improve this prediction was made. The extreme complexity of the model was found to be unnecessary, and a simple exponential smoothing subroutine for LOS prediction did as well or better than the original model. It was also found that a double exponential smoothing subroutine, taking into account the trends in the force structure, would almost uniformly improve the one year prediction from the model.

Forecasting the Naval Officer Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay
Forecasting the Naval Officer Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay

Author: Mark Chipman

Publisher:

Published: 1979

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13:

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The objective of this effort was to provide a detailed description of the analysis and procedures used to formulate a model for forcasting Navy officer force structures and basic pay obligations. The model, which will be used to monitor the service age characteristics of the force and its costs in basic pay, is known as the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor, Officer (NAPPO). NAPPO relies upon historical USN, USNR, USNT, and All Navy (ALNAV) quarterly force structure files dating back to 1963. Time series analysis techniques were applied to these files to find a particular set of time series models that would be appropriate for forecasting the LOS marginal distribution of each array. Various combinations of these forecasts were then compared to obtain a 'best' forecast for the ALNAV LOS distribution. Additional statistical procedures, previously developed for the Naval Personnel Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) model, were used for (1) deriving the interior of the force structure matrix given the forecasted LOS and inputted pay grade marginal distributions, (2) forecasting the force structure for personnel with less than 1 year of service or more than 30 years, (3) costing the force structure, (4) estimating average strength, and (5) validating the model. The statistical techniques employed in NAPPO proved to be highly accurate in producing estimates of officer basic pay. Validation results indicated forecasting errors of less that .3 percent for FY76, FY77, and FY78. NAPPO's predictions for mean LOS of the force also indicated a high degree of accuracy. As expected, the accuracy of the forecasts generally diminished as the forecast lead time increased.

Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay
Forecasting the Naval Enlisted Personnel Force Structure to Estimate Basic Pay

Author: Mark Chipman

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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A primary concern of Navy management is the ability to meet the Navy's manpower requirements in terms of both the quantity and quality of personnel. Recruitment, promotion, retirement, and other managerial policies are all directly related to and restricted by the Military Personnel, Navy (MPN) budget. Because over 50 percent of the MPN budget is allocated for enlisted basic pay, special attention must be given to the accurate forecasting of enlisted populations. The Naval Pay Predictor, Enlisted (NAPPE) Model, designed to accomplish this objective, relies solely upon historical population data and user-supplied enlisted end-strengths. Time series analysis is used to determine a general set of forecasting models that adequately explain the historical data. Other statistical procedures, including those employed in costing the enlisted force and in estimating recruit input populations, are also detailed. Validation results indicating errors of less than .1 percent for total enlisted basic pay are presented. (Author).

An Analysis of Pay for Enlisted Personnel
An Analysis of Pay for Enlisted Personnel

Author: Beth J. Asch

Publisher: RAND Corporation

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 80

ISBN-13:

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The briefing examines how the pay of enlisted personnel compares to that of their civilian counterparts, how these comparisons have changed over time, how the FY 2000 pay actions affect the comparisons, and how recruiting and retention have fared recently.

Prediction of Job Performance
Prediction of Job Performance

Author: Robert Vineberg

Publisher:

Published: 1982

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13:

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Literature pertaining to prediction of enlisted military job performance, 1952-1980, was reviewed. The review excluded studies in which training performance or reenlistment is the criterion. Aptitude was the most frequently used predictor and supervisor ratings the most frequent criterion. Relationships among classes of criteria and between predictors and criteria were examined. Major classes of criteria were job proficiency, job performance, and suitability to military service. The following conclusions are supported by the review: (1) For the great majority of jobs, job knowledge tests appear to provide the most practical method of objective measurement; (2) Because job sample tests are very expensive to construct and administer, their use is not practical unless the job is extremely costly or critical; and (3) Use of supervisors' ratings as the only measure of job performance should be restricted to jobs for which motivation, social skill, and response to situational requirements are the only attributes worth measuring. Two promising approaches to improved prediction are the selective use of miniaturized training and assessment centers and the use of self-paced training performance as a predictor. The review includes abstracts of the studies that were reviewed.

Analysis of Perceived Financial Conditions of U.S. Navy Enlisted Personnel
Analysis of Perceived Financial Conditions of U.S. Navy Enlisted Personnel

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 69

ISBN-13:

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This study evaluates demographic and attitudinal characteristics that explain variations in perceived financial condition (PEC) of Navy enlisted personnel using data from the 1999 Department of Defense (DoD) Survey of Active Duty Personnel (ADS). The ADS includes questions about: background information, economic issues, family information, programs and services, military life, career information, and assignment information. Two ordinal logistic regression models were estimated and used to explain variations in the PEC levels of married and single marital status samples of 2,362 and 1,309 U.S. Navy enlisted personnel, respectively. Results provide evidence that PEC levels are significantly affected by dependents, job satisfaction, household residence type, race/ethnicity, time away from homeport (married only), education (single only), paygrade, age, and pecuniary characteristics (gross income, savings, unsecured debt). Further study is recommended to incorporate PECs into cost estimates addressing the full impact of financial problems. Additional study is also recommended to refine demographic profiles in targeting persons who may benefit most from financial counseling, military housing, and DoD college programs.

Sensitivity Analysis for an Assignment Incentive Pay in the U. S. Navy Enlisted Personnel Assignment Process in a Simulation Environment
Sensitivity Analysis for an Assignment Incentive Pay in the U. S. Navy Enlisted Personnel Assignment Process in a Simulation Environment

Author: Karsten Logemann

Publisher:

Published: 2004-03-01

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13: 9781423514855

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The enlisted personnel assignment process is a major part in the United States Navy's Personnel Distribution system. It ensures warfighters and supporting activities receive the right sailor with the right training to the right billet at the right time (R4) and is a critical element in meeting the challenges of Seapower 21 and Global CONOPS. In order to attain these optimal goals the ways-to-do-it need to be customer-centered and should optimize both, the Navy's needs and the sailor's interests. Recent studies and a detailing pilot in 2002 used a web-based marketplace with two-sided matching mechanisms to accomplish this vision. This research examines the introduction of an Assignment Incentive Pay (AlP) as part of the U,S, Navy's enlisted personnel assignment process in a simulation environment. It uses a previously developed simulation tool, including the Deferred Acceptance (DA) and the Linear Programming (LP) matching algorithm to simulate the assignment process. The results of the sensitivity analysis suggested that the Navy should mainly emphasize sailor quality rather than saving AIP funds in order to maximize utility and the possible matches When adopting such an introduction policy also the percentage of unstable matches under the LP as the matching algorithm was reduced.