Adjustment should begin with policy and institutional reforms to deal with the ultimate causes of any macroeconomic crisis a country is experiencing. Only when progress has been made in reducing inflation and fiscal and balance of payment deficits should other structural reforms begin - of the public sector, trade and competition, the financial sector, and the labor market.
Most of the Bank's adjustment lending programs have increased the growth rate of GDP, the ratio of exports to GDP, and the ratios of saving to GDP. But the average ratio of investment to GDP is lower than 1970s levels. Sometimes unsustainable levels of public investment in the 1970s had led to economic crisis, and investment had to become more efficient. To restore growth, the challenge of the 1990s is to have good economic policies and to create the conditions needed to increase investment-to-GDP ratios.
This paper presents a study that focuses on specific adjustment programs for limited periods and is aimed largely at analyzing the short-run implications of the policy measures. The longer run implications are also discussed whenever relevant, since much of the rationale for policies and many of the beneficial effects on the poor are likely to be realized over time. The study also notes any compensatory targeting measures oriented to the poor, together with their implications for the adjustment efforts and the political viability of the programs. These analyses may provide lessons for improving the design of future adjustment programs. The chapter also summarizes the sample countries and programs; and describes the methodology used in the study. The results of the study suggest that adjustment programs in general have important distributional implications. During the process of adjustment, it is inevitable that some social groups gain while others lose, particularly when adjustment is aimed at a shift in sectoral resource allocation.
This is the first of a group of papers dealing with various aspects of Fund-supported adjustment programs. The other two, The Global Effects of Fund-supported Adjustment Programs by Morris Goldstein and Fund-Supported Programs, Fiscal Policy, and Income Distribution by the Fiscal Affairs Department, will also be published in the Fund's Occasional Paper Series.
The ascendancy of technocratic personnel and their imposition of neo-liberal economic policies have come to define Latin American politics in the 1980s and 1990s. This book is the first comparative analysis of these events and their implications for the future of democracy on the continent. Individual chapters discuss the rise to power of these technocrats in Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru as well as the historical antecedents of expert rule in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
Our Continent, Our Future presents the emerging African perspective on this complex issue. The authors use as background their own extensive experience and a collection of 30 individual studies, 25 of which were from African economists, to summarize this African perspective and articulate a path for the future. They underscore the need to be sensitive to each country's unique history and current condition. They argue for a broader policy agenda and for a much more active role for the state within what is largely a market economy. Finally, they stress that Africa must, and can, compete in an increasingly globalized world and, perhaps most importantly, that Africans must assume the leading role in defining the continent's development agenda.
This evaluation examines the relevance and effectiveness of Poverty Reduction Support Credits (PRSCs), introduced by the Bank in early 2001 to support comprehensive growth, improve social conditions, and reduce poverty in IDA countries. PRSCs were intended to allow greater country-ownership, provide more predictable annual support, exhibit more flexible conditionality, and strengthen budget processes in a results-based framework. By September 2009, the Bank had approved 99 PRSCs totaling some $7.5 billion and representing 38% percent of IDA policy based lending. The evaluation finds that in terms of process, PRSCs were effective in easing conditionality, increasing country ownership and aid predictability, stimulating dialogue between central and sectoral ministries, and improving donor harmonization. In terms of content, PRSCs succeeded in emphasizing public sector management and pro-poor service delivery. Yet in terms of results, it is difficult to distinguish growth and poverty outcomes in countries with PRSCs from other better performing IDA countries. There is scope for further simplifying the language of conditionality and underpinning PRSCs with better pro-poor growth diagnostics. PRSCs can also strengthen their results frameworks and limit sector policy content in multi-sector DPLs to high-level or cross-cutting issues. Today, Bank policy has subsumed PRSCs under the broader mantle of Development Policy Lending and the rationale for a separate brand name although differences linger from the past. Since PRSCs and other policy-based lending have gradually converged in design, remaining differences compared to other Development Policy Loans should be clearly spelled out, or the separate PRSC brand name should be phased out.
