A Markov Switching Factor-Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy
A Markov Switching Factor-Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy

Author: Florian Huber

Publisher:

Published: 2017

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This paper develops a multivariate regime switching monetary policy model for the US economy. To exploit a large dataset we use a factor-augmented VAR with discrete regime shifts, capturing distinct business cycle phases. The transition probabilities are modelled as time-varying, depending on a broad set of indicators that influence business cycle movements. The model is used to investigate the relationship between business cycle phases and monetary policy. Our results indicate that the effects of monetary policy are stronger in recessions, whereas the responses are more muted in expansionary phases. Moreover, lagged prices serve as good predictors for business cycle transitions.

Advances in Markov-Switching Models
Advances in Markov-Switching Models

Author: James D. Hamilton

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-06-29

Total Pages: 267

ISBN-13: 3642511821

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This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. The individual contributions cover new advances in Markov-switching models with applications to business cycle research and finance. The introduction surveys the existing methods and new results of the last decade. Individual chapters study features of the U. S. and European business cycles with particular focus on the role of monetary policy, oil shocks and co movements among key variables. The short-run versus long-run consequences of an economic recession are also discussed. Another area that is featured is an extensive analysis of currency crises and the possibility of bubbles or fads in stock prices. A concluding chapter offers useful new results on testing for this kind of regime-switching behaviour. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis. A special feature of the book is that it includes an illustration of a wide range of applications based on a common methodology. It is expected that the theme of the book will be of particular interest to the macroeconomics readers as well as econometrics professionals, scholars and graduate students. We wish to express our gratitude to the authors for their strong contributions and the reviewers for their assistance and careful attention to detail in their reports.

Structural Factor-Augmented VAR (Sfavar) and the Effects of Monetary Policy
Structural Factor-Augmented VAR (Sfavar) and the Effects of Monetary Policy

Author: Francesco Belviso

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Factor-augmented VARs (FAVARs) have combined standard VARs with factor analysis to exploit large data sets in the study of monetary policy. FAVARs enjoy a number of advantages over VARs: they allow a better identification of the monetary policy shock; they can avoid the use of a single variable to proxy theoretical constructs, such as the output gap; they allow researchers to compute impulse responses for hundreds of variables. Their shortcoming, however, is that the factors are not identified and, therefore, lack any economic interpretation. This paper seeks to provide an interpretation to the factors. We propose a novel Structural Factor-Augmented VAR (SFAVAR) model, where the factors have a clear meaning: Real Activity factor, Price Pressures factor, Financial Market factor, Credit Conditions factor, Expectations factor, etc. The paper employs a Bayesian approach to extract the factors and jointly estimate the model. This framework is then suited to study the effects on a wide range of macroeconomic variables of monetary policy and non-policy shocks.

Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions
Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions

Author: Hans-Martin Krolzig

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2014-03-12

Total Pages: 357

ISBN-13: 9783642516856

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This book contributes to re cent developments on the statistical analysis of multiple time series in the presence of regime shifts. Markov-switching models have become popular for modelling non-linearities and regime shifts, mainly, in univariate eco nomic time series. This study is intended to provide a systematic and operational ap proach to the econometric modelling of dynamic systems subject to shifts in regime, based on the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model. The study presents a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical properties of Markov-switching vector autoregressive processes and the related statistical methods. The statistical concepts are illustrated with applications to empirical business cyde research. This monograph is a revised version of my dissertation which has been accepted by the Economics Department of the Humboldt-University of Berlin in 1996. It con sists mainly of unpublished material which has been presented during the last years at conferences and in seminars. The major parts of this study were written while I was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschajt (DFG), Berliner Graduier tenkolleg Angewandte Mikroökonomik and Sondeiforschungsbereich 373 at the Free University and Humboldt-University of Berlin. Work was finally completed in the project The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting founded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) at the Institute of Economies and Statistics, University of Oxford. It is a pleasure to record my thanks to these institutions for their support of my research embodied in this study.

Stabilization Policy and Business Cycle Phases in Europe
Stabilization Policy and Business Cycle Phases in Europe

Author: Michel Beine

Publisher:

Published: 1999

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Most of the empirical studies dealing with international business cycles have disregarded the credibility issues that play an important role in the decision to join or not a monetary union. Most of empirical applications based on asymmetric shocks have failed to account for these aspects. In this paper, we tackle this problem by relying on a regime switching approach that characterizes the position of each economy in its business cycle. Then, using desynchronisation indices based on a non parametric approach, we measure the amplitude and the duration of divergence in the business cycles in order to assess the potential stabilization cost induced by the European economic and monetary union.

Factor Augmented Vector-autoregression with Narrative Identification
Factor Augmented Vector-autoregression with Narrative Identification

Author: Giorgia De Nora

Publisher:

Published: 2021

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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I extend the Bayesian Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive model (FAVAR) to incorporate an identification scheme based on an exogenous variable approach. A Gibbs sampling algorithm is provided to estimate the posterior distributions of the models parameters. I estimate the effects of a monetary policy shock in the United States using the proposed algorithm, and find that an increase in the Federal Fund Rate has contractionary effects on both the real and financial sides of the economy. Furthermore, the paper suggests that data-rich models play an important role in mitigating price and real economic puzzles in the estimated impulse responses as well as the discrepancies among the impulse responses obtained with different monetary policy instruments.

Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data
Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Author: Peter Fuleky

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-11-28

Total Pages: 716

ISBN-13: 3030311503

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This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Dynamic Factor Models
Dynamic Factor Models

Author: Siem Jan Koopman

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2016-01-08

Total Pages: 685

ISBN-13: 1785603523

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This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis
Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author: Lutz Kilian

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-11-23

Total Pages: 757

ISBN-13: 1107196574

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This book discusses the econometric foundations of structural vector autoregressive modeling, as used in empirical macroeconomics, finance, and related fields.

The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics
The Oxford Handbook of Bayesian Econometrics

Author: John Geweke

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2011-09-29

Total Pages: 576

ISBN-13: 0191618268

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Bayesian econometric methods have enjoyed an increase in popularity in recent years. Econometricians, empirical economists, and policymakers are increasingly making use of Bayesian methods. This handbook is a single source for researchers and policymakers wanting to learn about Bayesian methods in specialized fields, and for graduate students seeking to make the final step from textbook learning to the research frontier. It contains contributions by leading Bayesians on the latest developments in their specific fields of expertise. The volume provides broad coverage of the application of Bayesian econometrics in the major fields of economics and related disciplines, including macroeconomics, microeconomics, finance, and marketing. It reviews the state of the art in Bayesian econometric methodology, with chapters on posterior simulation and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian nonparametric techniques, and the specialized tools used by Bayesian time series econometricians such as state space models and particle filtering. It also includes chapters on Bayesian principles and methodology.