A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam
A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

Author: Allan Dizioli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-12-23

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1513595660

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The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam
A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam

Author: Allan Dizioli

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-12-23

Total Pages: 25

ISBN-13: 1513524763

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The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls
Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Author: Mokhtar Benlamine

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-02-14

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1484341813

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The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly projection model that was tailored for two different types of exchange rate regimes. Presently, the fixed exchange rate model version is to be used during the pre-IT period, while the flexible exchange rate model version is to be used to prepare alternative scenarios for monetary policy decision makers to discuss the potential policy implications of shocks under an IT regime.

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco
A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

Author: Daniel Baksa

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-07-16

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 151359298X

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The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.

A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium
A Macroeconomic Approach to the Term Premium

Author: Emanuel Kopp

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-15

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1484363671

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In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing above potential, inflationary pressures are on the rise. Term premia are very sensitive to the expected future path of growth, inflation, and monetary policy, and an inflation surprise could require monetary policy to tighten faster than anticipated, inducing to a sudden decompression of term and other risk premia, thus tightening financial conditions. This paper proposes a semi-structural dynamic term structure model augmented with macroeconomic factors to include cyclical dynamics with a focus on medium- to long-run forecasts. Our results clearly show that a macroeconomic approach is warranted: While term premium estimates are in line with those from other studies, we provide (i) plausible, stable estimates of expected long-term interest rates and (ii) forecasts of short- and long-term interest rates as well as cyclical macroeconomic variables that are stunningly close to those generated from large-scale macroeconomic models.

Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries
Evolving Monetary Policy Frameworks in Low-Income and Other Developing Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-23

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 1498344062

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Over the past two decades, many low- and lower-middle income countries (LLMICs) have improved control over fiscal policy, liberalized and deepened financial markets, and stabilized inflation at moderate levels. Monetary policy frameworks that have helped achieve these ends are being challenged by continued financial development and increased exposure to global capital markets. Many policymakers aspire to move beyond the basics of stability to implement monetary policy frameworks that better anchor inflation and promote macroeconomic stability and growth. Many of these LLMICs are thus considering and implementing improvements to their monetary policy frameworks. The recent successes of some LLMICs and the experiences of emerging and advanced economies, both early in their policy modernization process and following the global financial crisis, are valuable in identifying desirable features of such frameworks. This paper draws on those lessons to provide guidance on key elements of effective monetary policy frameworks for LLMICs.

Argentina
Argentina

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-11-15

Total Pages: 145

ISBN-13: 1475552653

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This paper discusses Argentina’s investment rate which was well below the average of Latin American countries and that of a peer group of advanced and emerging market countries, with a larger gap in private investment. Raising investment prospects would be essential to boost economic activity. The administration that took office in December 2015 has emphasized the importance of generating an investor friendly environment that allows Argentina to recover some of the growth opportunities lost over the last few decades. Although quantifying the capital accumulation gap is a clearly a difficult task, one way of doing so is to look at the difference between Argentina’s capital-labor ratio and that of the selected peer group of countries. Argentina’s investment rates and capital-output ratios are also compared with estimates of their steady state values derived from standard neoclassical growth models. Argentina’s investment rate would need to increase significantly to eliminate the capital accumulation gap built during the last two decades, and this could significantly accelerate GDP growth.

Inflation in Tajikistan
Inflation in Tajikistan

Author: Svetlana Vtyurina

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2010-01-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1451962177

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This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.

Vietnam
Vietnam

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-07-16

Total Pages: 94

ISBN-13: 1498326803

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This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam highlights that gradual fiscal consolidation, strict limits on government guarantees and robust growth in recent years have led to declining government debt, expected to continue under current policies. But while there is some fiscal space, fiscal needs are large, for infrastructure, social spending and to deal with population aging. The tightening of credit growth continued in 2018; however, liquidity remained ample, aided by the strong balance of payments and tight fiscal policies. The State Bank of Vietnam has initiated plans to modernize its monetary framework with IMF technical support. The authorities’ efforts to improve economic institutions and governance continue and the fight against grand corruption has resulted in significant sentences in recent high-profile cases. Improvements in transparency and statistical systems are underway, with support from the IMF and the Financial Action Task Force’s Asia Pacific Group.

IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2016

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-04-06

Total Pages: 20

ISBN-13: 1484316673

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The IMF Research Bulletin includes listings of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The research summaries in this issue are “Explaining the Recent Slump in Investment” (Mathieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara, and Juliana Milovich) and “The Quest for Stability in the Housing Markets” (Hites Ahir). The Q&A column reviews “Seven Questions on Estimating Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Bin Grace Li, Christopher Adam, and Andrew Berg). Also included in this issue are updates on the IMF’s official journal, the IMF Economic Review, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.