Condensed into a detailed analysis and a selection of continent-wide datasets, this revised edition of World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century addresses the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Presenting the full chapter text of the original edition alongside a concise selection of data, it summarizes past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education, and examines relevant theories to identify key determining factors. Deriving from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents, World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview emphasizes alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. It is an ideal companion to the county specific online Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer.
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
From the authors of the bestselling The Big Shift, a provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape. For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning planetary population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different kind of alarm. Rather than growing exponentially, they argue, the global population is headed for a steep decline. Throughout history, depopulation was the product of catastrophe: ice ages, plagues, the collapse of civilizations. This time, however, we're thinning ourselves deliberately, by choosing to have fewer babies than we need to replace ourselves. In much of the developed and developing world, that decline is already underway, as urbanization, women's empowerment, and waning religiosity lead to smaller and smaller families. In Empty Planet, Ibbitson and Bricker travel from South Florida to Sao Paulo, Seoul to Nairobi, Brussels to Delhi to Beijing, drawing on a wealth of research and firsthand reporting to illustrate the dramatic consequences of this population decline--and to show us why the rest of the developing world will soon join in. They find that a smaller global population will bring with it a number of benefits: fewer workers will command higher wages; good jobs will prompt innovation; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane; and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women. But enormous disruption lies ahead, too. We can already see the effects in Europe and parts of Asia, as aging populations and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. The United States is well-positioned to successfully navigate these coming demographic shifts--that is, unless growing isolationism and anti-immigrant backlash lead us to close ourselves off just as openness becomes more critical to our survival than ever before. Rigorously researched and deeply compelling, Empty Planet offers a vision of a future that we can no longer prevent--but one that we can shape, if we choose.
The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.
“This is a remarkable, much-needed book that fills a significant gap in the health and social care literature in the early decades of the 21st century—public, global, clinical, ecological. It is powerful, ambitious, comprehensive, and sweeping at the same time that it is visionary, focused, and deep. Its power and passion are about the potential of population health and well-being optimally applied around the globe to help in creating a world that is healthier, safer, more just, and more sustainable.” —Barbara K. Rimer, DrPH, Alumni Distinguished Professor and Dean UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (From the Foreword) Drawing on current research and the expertise of world-recognized leaders in public, global, clinical, and social health in both developed and developing nations, this book delivers an evidence-based examination of 21st-century challenges in global population health and well-being. With special attention given to major initiatives of the United Nations, especially its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2016–2030, and the priorities of the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank, Dr. Lueddeke articulates an imperative to adopt a “One World, One Health” view that recognizes the interdependence of humans, animals, plants, and the environment. The book/text promotes innovative and transformative paradigms for global public health practice, curricula, workforce training, and leadership. Intended for undergraduate and postgraduate courses in global public health, it will also be a welcome addition to the libraries of practitioners and policy-makers at all levels in the public/population/global health continuum. KEY CONTENT AREAS INCLUDE: The historical context of public health from early medicine to present day Exemplary educational initiatives: WHO education guidelines; curriculum commentaries from China, South Africa, and Cuba; a proposed Global Framework for Public Health Services and Functions; and case studies from South America (PAHO/ WHO), India (IPHF), and South Africa (PHASA) The changing roles and educational expectations of public and global health professionals in the early decades of the 21st century The complex interdependence of natural, socioeconomic, and political systems at local, national, regional, and global levels The causes of interstate conflicts and longer-term challenges Leading change in a new era, transforming mind-sets, and improving and sustaining the health and well-being of the planet and its people An epilogue on global health, governance, and education with contributions from a think tank of 35 practitioners from 27 nations Supplemental materials, including text aims and objectives and a guide to research and learning resources developed by experts in the United States, Brazil, and the Netherlands, are available as digital downloads ALSO HIGHLIGHTED: 65 profiles of leading global health (and health-related) organizations 15 profiles of highly recognized schools and institutes of public health
This book contains the proceedings of the Institute of Medicine's 25th Anniversary Symposium. Its chapters comprise presentations by eminent health care professionals and policymakers concerning the challenges and opportunities that likely lie ahead for the United Statesâ€"and internationallyâ€"over the next 25 years. These presentations cover such topics as world population and demography; global health; information and communications; risk, responsibility, and the evolution of health care payments; the role of institutions in health; and the health work force.
October 31, 2011, marked an uneasy milestone for Planet Earth. On this day, the global population surpassed seven billion. What does that mean for a world that, until the nineteenth century, was home to less than one billion people? Experts say it means the planet is in trouble. Some wonder if Earth will even be able to sustain human life at its current rate of growth. Will there be enough food for everyone? Will conflicts over land increase? How will the environment be affected? Can humanity survive the predicted disasters? More than a simple case of running out of space, the population crisis is interwoven with a host of other issues?from climate change and resource management to war, disease, and poverty. Discover how all these factors converge to place an entire planet in crisis mode?and explore what sort of responses that crisis may require.
Concern about the size of the world’s population did not begin with the Baby Boomers. Overpopulation as a conceptual problem originated after World War I and was understood as an issue with far-reaching ecological, agricultural, economic, and geopolitical consequences. This study traces the idea of a world population problem as it developed from the 1920s through the 1950s, long before the late-1960s notion of a postwar “population bomb.” Drawing on international conference transcripts, the volume reconstructs the twentieth-century discourse on population as an international issue concerned with migration, colonial expansion, sovereignty, and globalization. It connects the genealogy of population discourse to the rise of economically and demographically defined global regions, the characterization of “civilizations” with different standards of living, global attitudes toward “development,” and first- and third-world designations.
“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.
