This is the first dedicated book to be published on computer-aided General Morphological Analysis (GMA) as a non-quantified modelling method. It presents the history and theory of GMA and describes how it is used to develop interactive, non-quantified inference models. Eleven case studies are presented out of more than 100 projects carried out since 1995, illustrating how GMA has been employed for structuring complex policy and planning issues, developing scenario and strategy laboratories, and analysing organisational and stakeholder structures. Also discussed are the concepts of “wicked problems” and “social messes”, their characteristics and treatment, and problems concerning the facilitation of morphological analysis workshops.
Public policy can be considered a design science. It involves identifying relevant problems, selecting instruments to address the problem, developing institutions for managing the intervention, and creating means of assessing the design. Policy design has become an increasingly challenging task, given the emergence of numerous ‘wicked’ and complex problems. Much of policy design has adopted a technocratic and engineering approach, but there is an emerging literature that builds on a more collaborative and prospective approach to design. This book will discuss these issues in policy design and present alternative approaches to design.
The general perception amongst most project and risk managers that we can somehow control the future is, says David Hancock, one of the most ill-conceived in risk management. The biggest problem is how to measure risks in terms of their potential likelihood, their possible consequences, their correlation and the public's perception of them. The situation is further complicated by identifying different categories of problem types; Tame problems (straight-forward simple linear causal relationships and can be solved by analytical methods), and 'messes' which have high levels of system complexity and have interrelated or interdependent problems needing to be considered holistically. However, when an overriding social theory or social ethic is not shared the project or risk manager also faces 'wickedness'. Wicked problems are characterised by high levels of behavioural complexity, but what confuses real decision-making is that behavioural and dynamic complexities co-exist and interact in what is known as wicked messes. Tame, Messy and Wicked Risk Leadership will help professionals understand the limitations of the present project and risk management techniques. It introduces the concepts of societal benefit and behavioural risk, and illustrates why project risk has followed a particular path, developing from the basis of engineering, science and mathematics. David Hancock argues for, and offers, complimentary models from the worlds of sociology, philosophy and politics to be added to the risk toolbox, and provides a framework to understand which particular type of problem (tame, messy, wicked or messy and wicked) may confront you and which tools will provide the greatest potential for successful outcomes. Finally he introduces the concept of 'risk leadership' to aid the professional in delivering projects in a world of uncertainty and ambiguity. Anyone who has experienced the pain and blame of projects faced with overruns of time or money, dissatisfied stakeholders or basic failure, will welcome this imaginative reframing of some aspects of risk management. This is a book that has implications for the risk management processes, culture, and outcomes, of large and complex projects of all kinds.
Former Secretary of State George Shultz once drew a distinction between “problems you can solve and problems you can only work at.” These two types of problems have names: They are tame or wicked. Many people believe that their problems are “wicked,” yet few seem to understand what should be done with them. Wicked problems are messy, confusing, unstable, ill-structured, and ambiguous. This book explores the timely issue of wicked problems – what they are and why they are important. The authors open the door to a greater understanding of wicked problems and an appreciation for their complexity, sharing insights and recommendations on how to tackle them to make positive and productive changes in relationships, at home, and at work. Making one’s way successfully through the mess of obstacles and impediments that wicked problems present puts maximum pressure on our capabilities and stretches our tolerance for confusion, conflict, controversy, and chaos. Get guidance on grappling with the wicked problems in your life by increasing your knowledge about what they are and why they are so important to keep working at – even if they can’t be completely resolved.
How can we facilitate more effective, efficient, equitable and sustainable solutions to the problems that confound our communities and world? Social marketing guru R. Craig LeFebvre weaves together multi-level theories of change, research and case studies to explain and illustrate the development of social marketing to address some of society’s most vexing problems. The result is a people-centered approach that relies on insight and empathy as much as on data for the inspiration, design and management of programs that strive for changes for good. This text is ideal for students and professionals in health, nonprofit, business, social services, and other areas. “This is it -- the comprehensive, brainy road map for tackling wicked social problems. It’s all right here: how to create and innovate, build and implement, manage and measure, scale up and sustain programs that go well beyond influencing individual behaviors, all the way to broad social change in a world that needs the help.”—Bill Novelli, Professor, McDonough School of Business, Georgetown University, former CEO, AARP and founder, Porter Novelli and the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids “I’m unaware of a more substantive treatise on social marketing and social change. Theoretically based; pedagogically focused; transdisciplinary; innovative; and action oriented: this book is right for our time, our purpose, and our future thinking and action.”—Robert Gold, MS, PhD, Professor of Public Health and Former Dean of the School of Public Health at the University of Maryland, College Park “This book -- like its author -- is innovative and forward-looking, yet also well-grounded in the full range of important social marketing fundamentals.”—Edward Maibach, MPH, PhD, University Professor and Director, Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University
In this ground-breaking book, pre-eminent thought leader in the fields of sustainability and flourishing, John R. Ehrenfeld, critiques the concept of sustainability as it is understood today and which is coming more and more under attack as unclear and ineffective as a call for action. Building upon the recent work of cognitive scientist, Iain McGilchrist, who argues that the human brain’s two hemispheres present distinct different worlds, this book articulates how society must replace the current foundational left-brain-based beliefs – a mechanistic world and a human driven by self interest – with new ones based on complexity and care. Flourishing should replace the lifeless metrics now being used to guide business and government, as well as individuals. Until we accept that our modern belief structure is, itself, the barrier, we will continue to be mired in an endless succession of unsolved problems.
It feels like our world is spinning out of control. We see poverty, disease, and destruction all around us, and as we search for ways to make sense of the chaos, we're turning to new disciplines for answers and solutions. New, creative innovations are needed, and these new approaches demand different methods and different theories. This book is presented as a handbook for teaching and learning how to design for impact. In it, you'll learn how to apply the process of design to large, wicked problems, and how to gain control over complexity by acting as a social entrepreneur. You'll learn an argument for why design is a powerful agent of change, and you'll read practical methods for engaging with large-scale social problems. You can read this entire book online for free at http://www.wickedproblems.com/
Swans, Swine, and Swindlers addresses a core, contemporary question: What steps can we take to better anticipate and manage mega-crises, such as Haiti, Katrina, and 9/11? This book explores the concept of "messes." A mess is a web of complex and dynamically interacting, ill-defined, and/or wicked problems; their solutions; and our conscious and unconscious assumptions, beliefs, emotions, and values. The roots of messes can be classified as Swans (the inability to surface and test false assumptions and mistaken beliefs), Swine (the inability to confront and manage greed, hubris, arrogance, and narcissism), and Swindlers (the inability to confront, detect, and stop unethical and corrupt behavior). Working systematically with this concept and these classifications, authors Can M. Alpaslan and Ian I. Mitroff reveal that all crises are messes; one must learn to understand and manage them as such. They then provide tools and frameworks that readers can use to more effectively deal with the crises of today and tomorrow. Drawing on ideas from research areas as diverse as human development, philosophy, rhetoric, psychology, and high reliability organizations, this book aims to be the definitive guide for a new era in crisis management. Therefore, it is a must-have for practitioners, scholars, and students who study and deal in real-life crises.
This expanded second edition of the 2014 textbook features dedicated sections on action and observation, so that the reader can combine the use of the developed theoretical basis with practical guidelines for deployment. It also includes a focus on selection and use of a dedicated modeling paradigm – fuzzy cognitive mapping – to facilitate use of the proposed multi-methodology. The end goal of the text is a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to structuring and assessing complex problems, including a dedicated discussion of thinking, acting, and observing complex problems. The multi-methodology developed is scientifically grounded in systems theory and its accompanying principles, while the process emphasizes the nonlinear nature of all complex problem-solving endeavors. The authors’ clear and consistent chapter structure facilitates the book’s use in the classroom.
Complexity, Security and Civil Society in East Asia offers the latest understanding of complex global problems in the region, including nuclear weapons, urban insecurity, energy, and climate change. Detailed case studies of China, North and South Korea, and Japan demonstrate the importance of civil society and ‘civic diplomacy’ in reaching shared solutions to these problems in East Asia and beyond. Each chapter describes regional civil society initiatives that tackle complex challenges to East Asia’s security. In doing so, the book identifies key pressure points at which civil society can push for constructive changes¯especially ones that reduce the North Korean threat to its neighbors. Unusually, this book is both theoretical and practical. Complexity, Security and Civil Society in East Asia presents strategies that can be led by civil society and negotiated by its diplomats to realize peace, security, and sustainability worldwide. It shows that networked civic diplomacy offers solutions to these urgent issues that official ‘complex diplomacy’ cannot. By providing a new theoretical framework based on empirical observation, this volume is a must read for diplomats, scholars, students, journalists, activists, and individual readers seeking insight into how to solve the crucial issues of our time.
