This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals.
This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size-which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit-rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasin
This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals.
The objective of this paper is to discuss the key issues relating to the development of local corporate bond markets. We examine the requirements for local corporate bond market development, and compare and contrast experiences across both mature and emerging markets. We suggest that core aspects such as benchmarking, corporate governance and disclosure, credit risk pricing, the availability of reliable trading systems, and the development of hedging instruments are fundamental for improving the breadth and depth of corporate debt markets. The demand and supply of corporate bonds are dependent on factors such as the investor base, both local and foreign, and government policies toward the issuance process and associated costs, as well as the taxation regime. The sequencing of reforms is key to market development.
The October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite an improvement in financial stability in advanced economies, risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets. The global financial outlook is clouded by a triad of policy challenges: emerging market vulnerabilities, legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies, and weak systemic market liquidity. With more vulnerable balance sheets in emerging market companies and banks, firms in these countries are more susceptible to financial stress, economic downturn, and capital outflows. Recent market developments such as slumping commodity prices, China’s bursting equity bubble, and pressure on exchange rates underscore these challenges. The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve gradually raising interest rates points to an unprecedented adjustment in the global financial system as financial conditions and risk premiums “normalize” from historically low levels alongside rising policy rates and a modest cyclical recovery. The report also examines the factors that influence levels of liquidity in securities markets, as well as the implications of low liquidity. Currently, market liquidity is being supported by benign cyclical conditions. Although it is too early to assess the impact of recent regulatory changes on market liquidity, changes in market structure, such as larger holdings of corporate bonds by mutual funds, appear to have increased the fragility of liquidity. Finally, the report studies the growing level of corporate debt in emerging markets, which quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. The report finds that global drivers have played an increasing role in leverage growth, issuance, and spreads. Moreover, higher leverage has been associated with, on average, rising foreign currency exposures. It also finds that despite weaker balance sheets, firms have managed to issue bonds at better terms as a result of favorable financial conditions.
Global growth has eased but remains robust and is projected to reach 3.1 percent in 2018. It is expected to edge down in the next two years, to 2.9 percent by 2020, as global slack dissipates, trade and investment moderate, and financing conditions tighten. Growth in advanced economies is predicted to decelerate toward potential rates as monetary policy normalizes and the effects of U.S. fiscal stimulus wane. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), growth in commodity importers will remain robust, while the rebound in commodity exporters is projected to mature during the next two years. Progress in per capita income growth will be uneven, however, remaining particularly subdued in Sub-Saharan Africa. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside. The possibilities of escalating trade protectionism and disorderly financial market movements have increased substantially in recent months, and the risk of heightened geopolitical tensions continues to cloud the outlook. EMDE policymakers need to rebuild monetary and fiscal policy buffers and be prepared for rising global interest rates and possible episodes of financial market turbulence. In the longer run, EMDEs need to tackle ongoing structural challenges and boost potential growth, by promoting competitiveness, adaptability to technological change, and trade openness. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Global growth prospects have deteriorated in 2016. Emerging market and developing economies are facing increased external headwinds, including softer growth in advanced economies. Commodity exporters are struggling with particularly challenging conditions, while commodity importers are thus far showing greater resilience. Global growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2017-18 but risks to the outlook are increasingly more pronounced. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and prospects, this edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Focus essays of critical importance for emerging and developing economies: an analysis of the buildup of private debt in emerging and frontier markets and a quantitative study of uncertainties surrounding global growth. This year marks the 25th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that has, since its inception in 1991, examined international economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies. It has also included analytical essays on a wide range of topical macroeconomic, financial, and structural policy challenges faced by these economies. It is published on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges, while the June edition contains shorter analytical essays.
The Corporate, Real Estate, Household, Government and Non-Bank Financial Sectors Under Financial Stability undertakes a systematic approach to provide a complete analysis and risk assessment of each of these sectors which interact closely to financial stability.
China’s bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country’s bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike. This calls for a good understanding of China’s bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China’s bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China’s offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.
This third edition of the Principles of Banking Law provides an authoritative treatment of both domestic and international banking law. This edition contains expanded coverage of developments in other comparable jurisdictions, internet banking services and money laundering.
