What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic?
What Caused the Beveridge Curve to Shift Higher in the United States During the Pandemic?

Author: Gene Kindberg-Hanlon

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2024-01-12

Total Pages: 45

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The Beveridge curve shifted substantially higher in the United States following the start of the COVID pandemic. In 2022, vacancies reached record highs across all sectors while unemployment fell to pre-pandemic lows. At the same time, the pandemic has resulted in severe labor shortages, and we estimate that the labor force was approximately 2 million below trend at the start of 2023. We exploit state-level data in the United States to find that lower immigration, higher excess mortality due to COVID, and falling older-worker labor force participation were associated with larger upward shifts in the Beveridge curve. We also find that states that had a larger employment concentration in contact-intensive sectors had larger upward shifts in their Beveridge curve. While the effect of sectoral reallocation and rehiring has been shown in theoretical models to lift the Beveridge curve, we show that worker shortages also result in an upward shift in the Beveridge curve if they increase the marginal product of labor. This result holds in a search and matching model with on-the-job search, but does not hold without on-the-job search.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-29

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 1513536990

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

The Threat of Pandemic Influenza
The Threat of Pandemic Influenza

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2005-04-09

Total Pages: 431

ISBN-13: 0309095042

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Public health officials and organizations around the world remain on high alert because of increasing concerns about the prospect of an influenza pandemic, which many experts believe to be inevitable. Moreover, recent problems with the availability and strain-specificity of vaccine for annual flu epidemics in some countries and the rise of pandemic strains of avian flu in disparate geographic regions have alarmed experts about the world's ability to prevent or contain a human pandemic. The workshop summary, The Threat of Pandemic Influenza: Are We Ready? addresses these urgent concerns. The report describes what steps the United States and other countries have taken thus far to prepare for the next outbreak of "killer flu." It also looks at gaps in readiness, including hospitals' inability to absorb a surge of patients and many nations' incapacity to monitor and detect flu outbreaks. The report points to the need for international agreements to share flu vaccine and antiviral stockpiles to ensure that the 88 percent of nations that cannot manufacture or stockpile these products have access to them. It chronicles the toll of the H5N1 strain of avian flu currently circulating among poultry in many parts of Asia, which now accounts for the culling of millions of birds and the death of at least 50 persons. And it compares the costs of preparations with the costs of illness and death that could arise during an outbreak.

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Author: Laurence M. Ball

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-06-01

Total Pages: 58

ISBN-13: 1455263389

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead
European Labor Markets and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Fallout and the Path Ahead

Author: Mr. Sakai Ando

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-03-03

Total Pages: 96

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic caused by far the largest shock to European economies since World War II. Yet, astonishingly, the EU unemployment rate had already declined to its pre-crisis level by 2021Q3, and in some countries the labor force participation rate is at a record high. This paper documents that the widespread use of job retention schemes has played an essential role in mitigating the pandemic’s impact on labor markets and thereby facilitating the restart of European economies after the initial lockdowns.

Mexican Immigration to the United States
Mexican Immigration to the United States

Author: George J. Borjas

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2007-11-01

Total Pages: 349

ISBN-13: 0226066681

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

From debates on Capitol Hill to the popular media, Mexican immigrants are the subject of widespread controversy. By 2003, their growing numbers accounted for 28.3 percent of all foreign-born inhabitants of the United States. Mexican Immigration to the United States analyzes the astonishing economic impact of this historically unprecedented exodus. Why do Mexican immigrants gain citizenship and employment at a slower rate than non-Mexicans? Does their migration to the U.S. adversely affect the working conditions of lower-skilled workers already residing there? And how rapid is the intergenerational mobility among Mexican immigrant families? This authoritative volume provides a historical context for Mexican immigration to the U.S. and reports new findings on an immigrant influx whose size and character will force us to rethink economic policy for decades to come. Mexican Immigration to the United States will be necessary reading for anyone concerned about social conditions and economic opportunities in both countries.

After the Virus
After the Virus

Author: Hilary Cooper

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2021-09-23

Total Pages: 449

ISBN-13: 1009005200

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Reveals the deep roots of the UK's lack of resilience when COVID-19 hit and sets out an ambitious manifesto for change.

Flu
Flu

Author: Gina Kolata

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Published: 2011-04-01

Total Pages: 378

ISBN-13: 1429979356

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Veteran journalist Gina Kolata's Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It presents a fascinating look at true story of the world's deadliest disease. In 1918, the Great Flu Epidemic felled the young and healthy virtually overnight. An estimated forty million people died as the epidemic raged. Children were left orphaned and families were devastated. As many American soldiers were killed by the 1918 flu as were killed in battle during World War I. And no area of the globe was safe. Eskimos living in remote outposts in the frozen tundra were sickened and killed by the flu in such numbers that entire villages were wiped out. Scientists have recently rediscovered shards of the flu virus frozen in Alaska and preserved in scraps of tissue in a government warehouse. Gina Kolata, an acclaimed reporter for The New York Times, unravels the mystery of this lethal virus with the high drama of a great adventure story. Delving into the history of the flu and previous epidemics, detailing the science and the latest understanding of this mortal disease, Kolata addresses the prospects for a great epidemic recurring, and, most important, what can be done to prevent it.

Mismatch Unemployment
Mismatch Unemployment

Author: Aysegul Sahin

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13: 9781457838200

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We develop a framework where mismatch between vacancies and job seekers across sectors translates into higher unemployment by lowering the aggregate job-finding rate. We use this framework to measure the contribution of mismatch to the recent rise in U.S. unemployment by exploiting two sources of cross-sectional data on vacancies, JOLTS and HWOL, a new database covering the universe of online U.S. job advertisements. Mismatch across industries and occupations explains at most 1/3 of the total observed increase in the unemployment rate, whereas geographical mismatch plays no apparent role. The share of the rise in unemployment explained by occupational mismatch is increasing in the education level.

How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve—and How to Get Back
How Monetary Policy Got Behind the Curve—and How to Get Back

Author: Michael D. Bordo

Publisher: Hoover Press

Published: 2023-03-01

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 081792566X

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

With the inflation rate in the United States and many other countries on the rise for over a year and nearing double digits, the Hoover Institution hosted its 2022 conference on monetary policy. Policy makers, market participants, and academic researchers gathered to discuss the situation. Many agreed that low interest rates and high money growth were inappropriate given the high inflation rate and evidence that the United States has recovered from the deep recession induced by the pandemic and its policy response in 2020. The thoughtful papers and the thorough discussions in this volume of conference proceedings illustrate the debate about the reasons for this mismatch, as well as how to get back on track. They reflect a range of opinions and perspectives, including examination of the fiscal shock resulting from the COVID pandemic and the related borrowing and spending; emphasis on the value of adherence to rules versus discretion in setting Fed policy; lessons from history in the spikes in federal expenditures during times of war (including the pandemic) and in the timing of the Fed's use of its policy instruments; the role of central banks in the emerging inflation crisis; and strategies toward disinflation.