Understanding U.S. Wage Dynamics
Understanding U.S. Wage Dynamics

Author: Mr.Yasser Abdih

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-15

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 148436208X

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In this paper, we undertake empirical analysis to understand U.S. wage behavior since the beginning of the new millennium. At the macroeconomic level, we find that a productivity-augmented Phillips curve model explains the data fairly well. The model reveals that the upward pressure on wage growth from recent tightening in the labor market has been dampened by a persistent decline in trend labor productivity growth and the share of income that accrues to labor. These themes are reinforced and complemented at the micro-economic level. Lower regional unemployment puts an upward pressure on wages of individuals, although this effect has become weaker since 2008. But there is downward pressure on wages for individuals with occupations that are exposed to automation and offshoring, and in industries with a higher concentration of large firms. All these factors appear to play a role illustrating why it is difficult to single out any one culprit for the observed wage growth moderation.

More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies
More Slack than Meets the Eye? Recent Wage Dynamics in Advanced Economies

Author: Mr.Gee Hee Hong

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-03-09

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1484345355

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Nominal wage growth in most advanced economies remains markedly lower than it was before the Great Recession of 2008–09. This paper finds that the bulk of the wage slowdown is accounted for by labor market slack, inflation expectations, and trend productivity growth. In particular, there appears to be greater slack than meets the eye. Involuntary part-time employment appears to have weakened wage growth even in economies where headline unemployment rates are now at, or below, their averages in the years leading up to the recession.

European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers
European Wage Dynamics and Spillovers

Author: Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-07-19

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1513508628

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Wage rises have remained stubbornly low in advanced Europe in recent years, but, at the same time, newer EU members are experiencing rapid wage acceleration. This paper investigates the drivers of this wage divergence. Econometric analysis using error correction models suggests that wage growth responds more quickly to changes in unemployment in the newer EU members than in advanced Europe, where wages are more closely related to inflation and inflation expectations in the short run, implying greater inertia in nominal wage rises in advanced Europe. In the years after the global crisis, this inertia contributed to the build up of a real wage overhang relative to sharply slowing labor productivity, which subsequently dragged on nominal wage rises even as unemployment began to decline. Spillovers of subdued wage growth between euro area countries also weighed on wage rises in advanced Europe.

Aspects of wage dynamics in Germany
Aspects of wage dynamics in Germany

Author: Jens Stephani

Publisher: wbv Media GmbH & Company KG

Published: 2014-11-04

Total Pages: 146

ISBN-13: 376394088X

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Dieses Buch thematisiert verschiedene Aspekte der Lohndynamik in Deutschland. Während der Hauptteil des Buches sich mit dem Lohnwachstum und der Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern beschäftigt, analysiert ein kleinerer Teil die Entwicklung der Lohneffekte der Tarifbindung für alle Beschäftigten. Unter anderem wird gezeigt, dass die Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern in besser bezahlte Jobs kein lediglich temporäres Phänomen ist, sondern für diese Beschäftigten zu längerfristig höheren Lohnniveaus führen kann. Das Lohnwachstum von Geringverdienern hängt allerdings von anderen betrieblichen Einflussfaktoren ab als das Lohnwachstum von Besserverdienern. Auch Persönlichkeitsmerkmale wie zum Beispiel die individuelle Kontrollüberzeugung beeinflussen die Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern. Weiterhin zeigen die Analysen, dass trotz des kontinuierlichen Rückgangs des gewerkschaftlichen Organisationsgrads und der Tarifbindung im letzten Jahrzehnt weiterhin eine - wenn auch geringe - positive Lohnprämie der Tarifbindung existiert.

Entrepreneurial Wage Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy
Entrepreneurial Wage Dynamics in the Knowledge Economy

Author: Adam K. Korobow

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 134

ISBN-13: 1461511216

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The role that small firms and entrepreneurship play in economic development has been particularly contentious. Joseph Schumpeter (1911), in his early work, argued that through a process of "creative destruction," small and new firms would serve as agents of change and a catalyst for innovation and growth. But, he later rescinded this view, instead concluding that large corporations were the engines of growth. Just as it seemed that a consensus had emerged among scholars and policy makers that small business was at best superfluous and at worst a drag on growth and economic development, David Birch provided evidence that, in fact, small firms were the engines of job creation. The early skepticism of challenge to Birch's findings revolved around methodology and measurement. However, a wave of subsequent studies by different authors, spanning different time periods, sectors, and even countries, generally confirmed Birch's original findings-for most developed countries and in most time periods, small business has provided most of the job creation.

What Type of Contracts Underlie Aggregate Wage Dynamics?
What Type of Contracts Underlie Aggregate Wage Dynamics?

Author: Mr.Esteban Jadresic

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-05-01

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1451961626

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This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the importance of different types of wage contracts at the aggregate level using the same data used to estimate standard Phillips curves. It finds that the behavior of the Chilean private aggregate wage during the 1980s is well described by two-year contracts that are revised every six months according to 100 percent of past inflation. The estimates also show that the unemployment rate was a strong determinant of the contract’s target real wage and that most wage negotiations were carried through during the first half of every year. The results prove robust to a variety of tests and fit the data better than standard Phillips curves.

Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany
Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany

Author: Sabine Klinger

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-12-27

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1513521144

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German wages have not increased very rapidly in the last decade despite strong employment growth and a 5 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate. Our analysis shows that a large part of the decline in unemployment was structural. Micro-founded Phillips curves fit the German data rather well and suggest that relatively low wage growth can be largely attributed to low inflation expectations and low productivity growth. There is no evidence – from either aggregate or micro-level administrative data – that large immigration flows since 2012 have had dampening effects on aggregate wage growth, as complementarity effects offset composition and competition effects.

Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?
Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence?

Author: Jorge Alvarez

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-11-11

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13:

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How often have wage-price spirals occurred, and what has happened in their aftermath? We investigate this by creating a database of past wage-price spirals among a wide set of advanced economies going back to the 1960s. We define a wage-price spiral as an episode where at least three out of four consecutive quarters saw accelerating consumer prices and rising nominal wages. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small minority of such episodes were followed by sustained acceleration in wages and prices. Instead, inflation and nominal wage growth tended to stabilize, leaving real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of wage dynamics using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels that are consistent with observed inflation and labor market tightness. When focusing on episodes that mimic the recent pattern of falling real wages and tightening labor markets, declining inflation and nominal wage growth increases tended to follow – thus allowing real wages to catch up. We conclude that an acceleration of nominal wages should not necessarily be seen as a sign that a wage-price spiral is taking hold.