Volume and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Stock Returns
Volume and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Stock Returns

Author: Chiente Hsu

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 136

ISBN-13: 3642457657

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This manuscript is about the joint dynamics of stock returns and trading volume. It grew out of my attempt to construct an intertemporal asset pricing model with rational agents which can. explain the relation between volume, volatility and persistence of stock return documented in empirical literature. Most part of the manuscript is taken from my thesis. I wish to express my deep appreciation to Peter Kugler and Benedikt Poetscher, my advisors of the thesis, for their invaluable guidance and support. I wish to thank Gerhard Orosel and Gerhard Sorger for their encouraging and helpful discussions. Finally, my thanks go to George Tauchen who has been generous in giving me the benefit of his numerical and computational experience, in providing me with programs and in his encouragement. Contents 1 Introduction 1 7 2 Efficient Stock Markets Equilibrium Models of Asset Pricing 8 2. 1 2. 1. 1 The Martigale Model of Stock Prices 8 2. 1. 2 Lucas' Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model 9 2. 2 Econometric Tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 13 2. 2. 1 Autocorrelation Based Tests 14 16 2. 2. 2 Volatility Tests Time-Varying Expected Returns 25 2. 2. 3 3 The Informational Role of Volume 29 3. 1 Standard Grossman-Stiglitz Model 31 3. 2 The No-Trad Result of the BEO Model 34 A Model with Nontradable Asset 37 3. 3 4 Volume and Volatility of Stock Returns 43 4. 1 Empirical and Numerical Results 45 4.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics
Nonlinear Dynamics and Evolutionary Economics

Author: Richard Hollis Day

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 1993

Total Pages: 360

ISBN-13:

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Advances in physics, computers, and mathematics have made it possible to illustrate an astonishing array of potential behavior that can occur when nonlinear interactions are present. As Prigogine explains from a physicist's perspective, the fundamental role of instability and bounded rationality provide more precise understanding for evolution and changes. This volume considers these developments from various fields in the context of economic science. The work starts with a general non-mathematical discussion, introducing the major themes--nonlinearity, dynamical systems, and evolution in economic processes. The work continues with nonlinear analysis of macroeconomic growth and fluctuations. It describes analyses of economic adaptation, learning, and self-organization. The volume also scrutinizes a specific market--equities using nonlinear analysis, controlled experiments, and statistical inference when nonlinearity plays an essential role in data generation. The volume closes with an historical reflection by Richard Goodwin and a roundtable discussion on basic issues and new challenges in nonlinear economic dynamics.

Modular Pricing of Options
Modular Pricing of Options

Author: Jianwei Zhu

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2013-04-17

Total Pages: 181

ISBN-13: 3662043092

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From a technical point of view, the celebrated Black and Scholes option pricing formula was originally developed using a separation of variables technique. However, already Merton mentioned in his seminal 1973 pa per, that it could have been developed by using Fourier transforms as well. Indeed, as is well known nowadays, Fourier transforms are a rather convenient solution technique for many models involving the fundamental partial differential equation of financial economics. It took the community nearly another twenty years to recognize that Fourier transform is even more useful, if one applies it to problems in financial economics without seeking an explicit analytical inverse trans form. Heston (1993) probably was the first to demonstrate how to solve a stochastic volatility option pricing model quasi analytically using the characteristic function of the problem, which is nothing else than the Fourier transform of the underlying Arrow /Debreu-prices, and doing the inverse transformation numerically. This opened the door for a whole bunch of new closed form solutions in the transformed Fourier space and still is one of the most active research areas in financial economics.

Constraint Propagation in Flexible Manufacturing
Constraint Propagation in Flexible Manufacturing

Author: Toan Phan Huy

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 3642583350

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This book provides a thorough analysis of scheduling problems that arise in a flexible manufacturing environment with scarce resource supply. Generalizations of the famous job shop scheduling problem are discussed. As a basic and common technique for solving these problems constraint propagation is applied in various solution methods. The effectiveness of constraint propagation is demonstrated by the solution of a high number of benchmark problem instances.

Union Wage Bargaining and Economic Growth
Union Wage Bargaining and Economic Growth

Author: Jörg Lingens

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-09-03

Total Pages: 200

ISBN-13: 364217017X

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Writing a book is not possible without the generous input of many people. It is a pleasure to have the opportunity to thank at least some of these people. Prof. Dr. Jochen Michaelis, the supervisor of my dissertation, taught me how to do economic analysis and initiated my interest in labour market is sues. Discussions with him have always been enlightening and have greatly improved the analysis in this book. Moreover, he always encouraged me when I experienced a slump in my motivation. He never lost his calmness and good temper, not even in situations when my need for discussion must have been bothering him. Thanks for that Jochen. I'm indebted to Prof. Dr. Peter Weise for taking over the job as the sec ond referee of my thesis. He gave very valuable comments and sacrificed his christmas holiday to write the referee report as fast as possible. I also want to thank Prof. Stefan Voigt and Prof. Dr. Reinhold Kosfeld, the other two members of the dissertation committee, for the discussion during the defence of the thesis.

Default Risk in Bond and Credit Derivatives Markets
Default Risk in Bond and Credit Derivatives Markets

Author: Christoph Benkert

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-08-27

Total Pages: 143

ISBN-13: 3642170390

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Due to the scarcity of reliable data, the existing literature on default risk still displays an imbalance between theoretical and empirical contributions. Consequently, the focus of this book is on empirical work. Within an intensity based modelling framework a broad range of promising specifications is tested using corporate bond data. The book provides one of the most comprehensive empirical studies in the field, from Kalman filtration of affine term structure models to the use of Efficient Method of Moments estimation of dynamic term structure models in a default risky context. Filling another gap in empirical research, the book devotes special attention to the identification factors that can explain credit default swap premia.

Lot-Sizing and Scheduling for Flexible Flow Lines
Lot-Sizing and Scheduling for Flexible Flow Lines

Author: Daniel Quadt

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-09-14

Total Pages: 240

ISBN-13: 364217101X

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The book considers the lot-sizing and scheduling problem for flexible flow line production facilities. Flexible flow lines are flow lines with parallel machines on some or all production stages. They can be found in a vast number of industries. A three-phased solution approach is presented that solves the integrated lot-sizing and scheduling problem in a hierarchical manner. The approach is able to handle several important features relevant in industrial practice, such as back-orders and setup carry-over. The developed solution procedures solve practically sized problems in a relatively short amount of time. One of the procedures is based on a novel mixed integer programming (MIP) model, which employs integer variables instead of binary variables. This makes it possible to find (near-)optimal solutions using standard algorithms such as CPLEX. Another procedure uses two nested Genetic Algorithms. An application of the framework in the semiconductor industry is given.

Generalized Bounds for Convex Multistage Stochastic Programs
Generalized Bounds for Convex Multistage Stochastic Programs

Author: Daniel Kuhn

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-03-30

Total Pages: 193

ISBN-13: 3540269010

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This work was completed during my tenure as a scientific assistant and d- toral student at the Institute for Operations Research at the University of St. Gallen. During that time, I was involved in several industry projects in the field of power management, on the occasion of which I was repeatedly c- fronted with complex decision problems under uncertainty. Although usually hard to solve, I quickly learned to appreciate the benefit of stochastic progr- ming models and developed a strong interest in their theoretical properties. Motivated both by practical questions and theoretical concerns, I became p- ticularly interested in the art of finding tight bounds on the optimal value of a given model. The present work attempts to make a contribution to this important branch of stochastic optimization theory. In particular, it aims at extending some classical bounding methods to broader problem classes of practical relevance. This book was accepted as a doctoral thesis by the University of St. Gallen in June 2004.1 am particularly indebted to Prof. Dr. Karl Frauendorfer for - pervising my work. I am grateful for his kind support in many respects and the generous freedom I received to pursue my own ideas in research. My gratitude also goes to Prof. Dr. Georg Pflug, who agreed to co-chair the dissertation committee. With pleasure I express my appreciation for his encouragement and continuing interest in my work.

Model Reduction Methods for Vector Autoregressive Processes
Model Reduction Methods for Vector Autoregressive Processes

Author: Ralf Brüggemann

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-09-25

Total Pages: 226

ISBN-13: 3642170293

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1. 1 Objective of the Study Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become one of the dominant research tools in the analysis of macroeconomic time series during the last two decades. The great success of this modeling class started with Sims' (1980) critique of the traditional simultaneous equation models (SEM). Sims criticized the use of 'too many incredible restrictions' based on 'supposed a priori knowledge' in large scale macroeconometric models which were popular at that time. Therefore, he advo cated largely unrestricted reduced form multivariate time series models, unrestricted VAR models in particular. Ever since his influential paper these models have been employed extensively to characterize the underlying dynamics in systems of time series. In particular, tools to summarize the dynamic interaction between the system variables, such as impulse response analysis or forecast error variance decompo sitions, have been developed over the years. The econometrics of VAR models and related quantities is now well established and has found its way into various textbooks including inter alia Llitkepohl (1991), Hamilton (1994), Enders (1995), Hendry (1995) and Greene (2002). The unrestricted VAR model provides a general and very flexible framework that proved to be useful to summarize the data characteristics of economic time series. Unfortunately, the flexibility of these models causes severe problems: In an unrestricted VAR model, each variable is expressed as a linear function of lagged values of itself and all other variables in the system.