Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates
Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates

Author: Mr.Rudolfs Bems

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-09-08

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13: 1513538470

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We examine the role of cross-border input linkages in governing how international relative price changes influence demand for domestic value added. We define a novel value-added real effective exchange rate (REER), which aggregates bilateral value-added price changes, and link this REER to demand for value added. Input linkages enable countries to gain competitiveness following depreciations by supply chain partners, and hence counterbalance beggar-thy-neighbor effects. Cross-country differences in input linkages also imply that the elasticity of demand for value added is country specific. Using global input-output data, we demonstrate these conceptual insights are quantitatively important and compute historical value-added REERs.

Demand for Value Added and Value-added Exchange Rates
Demand for Value Added and Value-added Exchange Rates

Author: Rudolfs Bems

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13: 9781513539188

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We examine the role of cross-border input linkages in governing how international relative price changes influence demand for domestic value added. We define a novel value-added real effective exchange rate (REER), which aggregates bilateral value-added price changes, and link this REER to demand for value added. Input linkages enable countries to gain competitiveness following depreciations by supply chain partners, and hence counterbalance beggar-thy-neighbor effects. Cross-country differences in input linkages also imply that the elasticity of demand for value added is country specific. Using global input-output data, we demonstrate these conceptual insights are quantitatively important and compute historical value-added REERs.

Value-Added Exchange Rates
Value-Added Exchange Rates

Author: Rudolfs Bems

Publisher:

Published: 2012

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This paper updates the conceptual foundations for measuring real effective exchange rates (REERs) to allow for vertical specialization in trade. We derive a value-added REER describing how demand for the value added that a country produces changes as the price of its value added changes relative to competitors. We then compute this index for 42 countries from 1970-2009 using trade measured in value added terms and GDP deflators. There are substantial differences between value-added and conventional REERs. For example, China's value-added REER appreciated by 20 percentage points more than the conventional REER from 2000-2009. These differences are driven mainly by the theory-motivated shift in prices used to construct the value-added REER, not changes in bilateral weights.

Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports
Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

Author: Mrs.Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-11-30

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1513531794

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This paper analyzes how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find some suggestive evidence that the elasticity of real manufacturing exports to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that GVC participation reduces the REER elasticity of manufacturing exports by 22 percent, on average.

Exchange Rates and Trade
Exchange Rates and Trade

Author: Mr.Daniel Leigh

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-03-17

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13: 1475587562

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We examine the stability and strength of the relationship between exchange rates and trade over time using three alternative approaches, mitigating the endogeneity of the relation. We find that both exchange rate pass-through and the price elasticity of trade volumes are largely stable over time. Economic slack and financial conditions affect the relationship, but there is limited evidence that participation in global value chains has significantly changed the exchange rate–trade relationship over time.

Effects of Exchange Rate on Value-Added International Trade
Effects of Exchange Rate on Value-Added International Trade

Author: Myoung Shik Choi

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 6

ISBN-13:

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In this study, value-added perspective focuses on the role of exports within a bilateral trading partner in the process of global value chains with vertical specialization, which is one of the various innovations in the world economy. Theoretically, we determine a proper model to connect both the value-added exports (Hummels et al. 1999; Johnson & Noguera 2012; Koopman et al. 2010; Koopman and Wei 2014; UNCTAD 2013) and the changes in value-added exchange rates (Bems & Johnson 2012, 2015; Patel et al. 2014; Yang et al. 2014). Then, based on their relationships, we investigate the value-added effects of exchange rate changes on international trade. Empirically, we adopt the calculating methods of using the value-added trade statistics (TiVA) developed by OECD-WTO. In particular, proper time series econometric models are tested for the United States of America and South Korea. We find that increase in foreign income increases the value-added exports, and increase in domestic income increases the value-added imports, but that currency appreciation decreases the value-added exports in Korea while currency appreciation increases the value-added exports in the US. We would judge that the export competitiveness relies on the currency devaluation in Korea but the domestic industry/economic growth in the US. Also, the value-added exports to gross exports are higher in Korea than the ones in the US as using more the global value chains. This will contribute to mitigate the global imbalances and exchange rate conflicts.

Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains
Measuring Competitiveness in a World of Global Value Chains

Author: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-11-01

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1484337131

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All common real effective exchange rate indexes assume trade is only in final goods, despite the growing presence of global supply chains. Extending effective exchange rate indexes to include such intermediate goods can imply radically different effective exchange rate weights, depending on the relative substitutability of goods in final demand and in production. Unfortunately, the effect of these shifts in weights are difficult to identify empirically because the two currencies most affected—the dollar and the renminbi—have moved closely together. As the renminbi becomes more flexible, however, it will be important to determine which assumptions are the most realistic.

Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates
Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates

Author: Aaditya Mattoo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-03-01

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1475502621

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This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, which we call the "spillover effect". We use recent theory to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. We exploit the variation - afforded by disaggregated trade data - across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. We find robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Our estimates suggest that a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts on average a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit HS product category to third markets by about 1.5-2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.

Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade
Dollar Invoicing, Global Value Chains, and the Business Cycle Dynamics of International Trade

Author: Mr. David Cook

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-02-11

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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Recent literature has highlighted that international trade is mostly priced in a few key vehicle currencies and is increasingly dominated by intermediate goods and global value chains (GVCs). Taking these features into account, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade flows. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, it finds key differences between the response of final goods and GVC trade to both domestic and foreign shocks depending on the origin and ultimate destination of value added and the intermediate shipments involved. For example, the model shows that in response to a dollar appreciation triggered by a US interest rate increase, direct bilateral trade between non-US countries contracts more than global value chain oriented trade which feeds US final demand, and exports to the US decline much more when measured in gross as opposed to value added terms. We use granular data on GVCs at the sector level to document empirical evidence in favor of these key predictions of the model.