This report presents strategic choices America faces regarding the international economy over the term of the next U.S. administration, focusing on policy choices in the areas of maintaining and improving the rules-based international economic system; working with China and better integrating it into the existing system; supporting economic growth of allies and partners; and using sanctions to change unwanted behavior and counter adversaries.
The first in a series exploring the elements of a national strategy for U.S. foreign policy, this book examines the most critical decisions likely to face the next president. The book covers global and regional issues and spotlights the long-term policy issues and organizational, financial, and diplomatic challenges that will confront senior U.S. officials in 2017 and beyond.
Every day, in every sector of our economy, a business shuts down while another starts up, jobs are created while others are cut, and workers are hired while others are laid off. This constant flux, or turbulence, is a defining characteristic of our free market system, yet it mostly inspires angst about unemployment, loss of earnings, and the overall competitiveness of corporations. But is this endless cycle of fluctuation really so bad for America? Might something positive be going on in the economy as a result of it? In this penetrating work, three esteemed economists seek to answer these questions by exploring the real impact of volatility on American workers and businesses alike. According to the authors, while any number of events--shifts in consumer demand, changes in technology, mergers and acquisitions, or increased competition--can contribute to economic turbulence, our economy as a whole is, by and large, stronger for it, because these processes of creation and destruction make it more flexible and adaptable. The authors also acknowledge and document the adverse consequences of this turbulence on different groups of workers and firms and discuss the resulting policy challenges. Basing their argument on an up-close look into the dealings and practices of five key industries—financial services, retail food services, trucking, semiconductors, and software—the authors demonstrate the positive effects of turbulence on career paths, employee earnings, and firm performance. The first substantial attempt to disentangle and make clear the complexities of this phenomenon in the United States, Economic Turbulence will be viewed as a major achievement and the centerpiece of any discussion on the subject for years to come.
This report is the last of a six-volume series in which RAND explores the elements of a national strategy for the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. It analyzes U.S. strengths and weaknesses, and suggests adaptations for this new era of turbulence and uncertainty. The report offers three alternative strategic concepts and evaluates their underlying assumptions, costs, risks, and constraints.
What Globalization Now Means for Your Business Executives can no longer base their strategies on the assumption that globalization will continue to advance steadily. But how should they respond to the growing pressures against globalization? And what can businesses do to control their destinies in these times of uncertainty? In The New Global Road Map, Pankaj Ghemawat separates fact from fiction by giving readers a better understanding of the key trends affecting global business. He also explains how globalization levels around the world are changing, and where they are likely to go in the future. Using the most up-to-date data and analysis, Ghemawat dispels today's most dangerous myths and provides a clear view of the most critical issues facing policy makers in the years ahead. Building on this analysis, with examples from a diverse set of companies across industries and geographies, Ghemawat provides actionable frameworks and tools to help executives revise their strategies, restructure their global footprints, realign their organizations, and rethink how they work with local governments and institutions. In our era of rising nationalism and increased skepticism about globalization's benefits, The New Global Road Map delivers the definitive guide on how to compete profitably across borders.
The current downturn may prove more brutal than most previous recessions. It's already hammering companies in markets around the globe. It will test businesses to their fullest-many won't survive. But downturns present strategic opportunities, too. In fact, many more companies achieve dramatic gains during recessions than in normal times. How to ensure your company emerges successful? In Winning in Turbulence, a new volume in the Memo to the CEO series, Bain & Company downturn strategist Darrell Rigby provides the playbook. He presents a powerful framework and diagnostic tool (available in the book and online) for assessing three dimensions of your situation: Your industry's sensitivity: How hard is it hit by this downturn? Your company's strategic position: Are you an industry leader or follower? Your firm's financial position, including cash reserves. The author then explains how to craft an action plan tailored to the situation you've diagnosed, providing tools for: Cutting costs intelligently-sustaining your margins and brand Boosting revenue by refocusing your sales force on the right customers Channeling resources into your core businesses Preparing for bold moves, such as game-changing acquisitions Timely and practical, this book positions you to survive a downturn and emerge stronger once the recovery begins.
An essential guide to renewing American leadership in a turbulent, polarized, and postdominant world Is America fated to decline as a great power? Can it recover? With absorbing insight and fresh perspective, foreign policy expert Andrew Imbrie provides a road map for bolstering American leadership in an era of turbulence abroad and deepening polarization at home. This is a book about choices: the tough policy trade-offs that political leaders need to make to reinvigorate American money, might, and clout. In the conventional telling, the United States is either destined for continued dominance or doomed to irreversible decline. Imbrie argues instead that the United States must adapt to changing global dynamics and compete more wisely. Drawing on the author’s own experience as an adviser to Secretary of State John Kerry, as well as on interviews and comparative studies of the rise and fall of nations, this book offers a sharp look at American statecraft and the United States’ place in the world today.
Since the financial crisis of 2008, many of us have had to reexamine our beliefs about markets and globalization. How integrated should economies really be? How much regulation is right? Many people fuse these two dimensions of choice into one, either favoring both globalization and deregulation—or opposing both of them. It doesn’t have to be that way. In World 3.0, award-winning author and economist Pankaj Ghemawat reveals the folly in both of these responses. He calls for a third worldview—one in which both regulation and cross-border integration coexist and complement one another. Ghemawat starts by exposing common assumptions about globalization to hard data, proving that the world is not nearly as globalized as we think. And he explains why the potential gains from further integration are much larger than even pro globalizers tend to believe. He then tackles market failures and fears—job losses, environmental degradation, macroeconomic volatility, and trade and capital imbalances—that opponents of globalization often invoke. Drawing on compelling data, he shows that increased globalization can actually alleviate some of these problems. Finally, Ghemawat describes how a wide range of players—businesses, policy makers, citizens, media—can help open up flows of ideas, people, and goods across borders, but in ways that maximize the benefits and minimize the potential side effects. World 3.0 dispels powerfully entrenched—but incorrect—assumptions about globalization. Provocative and bold, this new book explains how people around the world can secure their collective prosperity through new approaches to cross-border integration. Ghemawat’s thinking will surprise and move you—no matter where you stand on globalization.
This book, which is written from a practitioner’s perspective, fills the void by providing the reader with a toolkit and guiding principles to manage money when markets are in turmoil. It features ten case studies beginning with the breakdown of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system through the current situation in which investors are assessing whether China could become the next bubble. Each chapter discusses how the respective crisis or bubble unfolded at the time, the way policymakers and markets responded, and the optimal strategy for positioning portfolios. The goal is to share these experiences and the lessons from them, so investors will be better prepared for future shocks. The opening chapter explores whether there are common patterns in movements of interest rates and exchange rates that investors can exploit. A conceptual framework is presented that helps explain why this is the case for traditional currency crises, but less so for asset bubbles. The concluding chapter ties the episodes together and considers how the nature of financial crises has evolved since the collapse of Bretton Woods. We cite factors that make it difficult for policymakers and investors to detect problems in advance of an asset bubble. The good news is investors get a second chance to outperform when markets are over-sold; however, they need to formulate a strategy to limit the damage during the sell-off phase and to capitalize on the eventual recovery.
