Boom and Bust

Boom and Bust

Author: William Quinn

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2020-08-06

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 1108421253

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Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? Boom and Bust reveals why bubbles happen, and why some bubbles have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences, whilst others have actually benefited society.


China's Guaranteed Bubble

China's Guaranteed Bubble

Author: Ning Zhu

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

Published: 2016-03-11

Total Pages: 337

ISBN-13: 1259644596

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The truth about China’s financial industry—and the growing bubble that’s guaranteed to blow it apart... In recent years, the Chinese economy has been fueled by the implicit guarantee of major banks and local governments by the nation’s central government. The resultant bubble has led to the emergence of a large shadow banking industry that poses major risks to China’s real estate market, speculative stock investments, state-owned enterprises, and more. It’s not a matter of if China’s bubble will burst. It’s a matter of when. This eye-opening book from renowned financial scholar Ning Zhu provides a provocative in-depth analysis of China’s current economic practices—and the profound dangers they pose—as well as a powerful wake-up call to investors, regulators, and the entire financial industry. Zhu’s book is packed with startling revelations, including: * The enormous impact of China’s implicit guarantees on economic growth—and what will happen when those guarantees are gone * The ever-increasing size of China’s shadow banking industry—and how it’s just the tip of the iceberg * The once-reliable strength of China’s real estate and stock markets—and how they’re threatened by government distortion * The latest financial innovations and channels—and how they are circumventing regulations and triggering unprecedented risks Filled with fascinating case studies, worst case scenarios, and a well-argued case for much-needed reforms, Zhu’s enlightening book is a must-read for anyone with interests or investments in China’s rapidly changing economy. You’ll find intriguing new perspectives on traditional growth models, innovative solutions for overcapacity problems, and revealing new stats on so-called Voodoo Statistics. You’ll get a glimpse behind the curtain of the “unknown unknowns” of China’s implicit guarantees—and learn just how misleading these government policies can be. Most importantly, Zhu’s book provides solid recommendations for diffusing the time bomb these guarantees can and will set off. Brilliant, incisive, and ultimately optimistic, China’s Guaranteed Bubble will incite a much-needed call for change and set us on a new path of prosperity and growth—for China, the economy, and the world.


Paper Dragons

Paper Dragons

Author: Walden Bello

Publisher: Zed Books Ltd.

Published: 2019-08-15

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 1786995999

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Emerging relatively unscathed from the banking crisis of 2008, China has been viewed as a model of both rampant success and fiscal stability. But beneath the surface lies a network of fissures that look likely to erupt into the next big financial crash. A bloated real-estate sector, roller-coaster stock market, and rapidly growing shadow-banking sector have all coalesced to create a perfect storm: one that is in danger of taking the rest of the world’s economy with it. Walden Bello traces our recent history of financial crises – from the bursting of Japan’s ‘bubble economy’ in 1990 to Wall Street in 2008 – taking in their political and human ramifications such as rising inequality and environmental degradation. He not only predicts that China might be the site of the next crash, but that under neoliberalism this will simply keep happening. The only way that we can stop this cycle, Bello argues, is through a fundamental change in the ways that we organise: a shift to cooperative enterprise, respectful of the environment, and which fractures the twin legacies of imperialism and capitalism. Insightful, erudite and passionate, Paper Dragons is a must-read for anyone wishing to prevent the next financial meltdown.


NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015

Author: Martin Eichenbaum

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2016-06-22

Total Pages: 517

ISBN-13: 022639574X

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This year, the NBER Macroeconomics Annual celebrates its thirtieth volume. The first two papers examine China’s macroeconomic development. “Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy” by Chun Chang, Kaiji Chen, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha outlines the key characteristics of growth and business cycles in China. “Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom” by Hanming Fang, Quanlin Gu, Wei Xiong, and Li-An Zhou constructs a new house price index, showing that Chinese house prices have grown by ten percent per year over the past decade. The third paper, “External and Public Debt Crises” by Cristina Arellano, Andrew Atkeson, and Mark Wright, asks why there appear to be large differences across countries and subnational jurisdictions in the effect of rising public debts on economic outcomes. The fourth, “Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration” by Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, and William Kerr, explains how the network structure of the US economy propagates the effect of gross output productivity shocks across upstream and downstream sectors. The fifth and sixth papers investigate the usefulness of surveys of household’s beliefs for understanding economic phenomena. “Expectations and Investment,” by Nicola Gennaioli, Yueran Ma, and Andrei Shleifer, demonstrates that a chief financial officer's expectations of a firm's future earnings growth is related to both the planned and actual future investment of that firm. “Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation” by Regis Barnichon and Andrew Figura shows that an increasing number of prime-age Americans who are not in the labor force report no desire to work and that this decline accelerated during the second half of the 1990s.


Private Lending in China

Private Lending in China

Author: Lerong Lu

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2018-12-07

Total Pages: 246

ISBN-13: 0429823908

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This book explores China’s private lending market from historical, economic, legal, and regulatory perspectives. Private lending refers to moneylending agreements between business borrowers and their debt investors without the involvement of banks. In China, it remains difficult for private entrepreneurs to obtain sufficient loans from state-owned banks. Thus, private lending has been a vital alternative financing channel for over 80 million businesses which are reliant on private funds as their major source of operating capital. The market volume of private financing stands at 5 trillion yuan ($783bn), making it one of the largest shadow banking systems in the world. Despite the wide popularity and systemic importance of private lending activities, they have remained outside of the official regulatory framework, leading to extra financial risks. In 2011, China’s private lending sector encountered a severe financial crisis, as thousands of business borrowers failed to repay debts and fell into bankruptcy. Lots of bosses who found it impossible to liquidate debts ran away to hide from creditors. The financial turmoil has caused substantial monetary losses for investors across the country, which triggered social unrest and undermined the financial stability. This book is a timely work intended to demystify China’s private lending market by investigating its historical development, operating mechanism, and special characteristics. It evaluates the causes and effects of the latest financial crisis by considering a number of real cases relating to helpless investors and runaway bosses. It conducts an in-depth doctrinal analysis of Chinese laws and regulations regarding private lending transactions. It also examines China’s ongoing financial reform to bring underground lending activities under official supervision. Finally, the book points out future development paths for the private lending market. It offers suggestions for global policymakers devising an effective regulatory framework for shadow banking. It appeals to researchers, lecturers, and students in several fields, including law, business, finance, political economy, public policy, and China study.


Hollywood Made in China

Hollywood Made in China

Author: Aynne Kokas

Publisher: Univ of California Press

Published: 2017-02-07

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13: 0520294017

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"In a race to capture new audiences, Hollywood moguls began courting Chinese investors to create branded entertainment on an international scale--from behemoth theme parks to blockbuster films--after China's 2001 World Trade Organization entry. Hollywood Made in China examines this compelling dynamic, where the distinctions between Hollywood's "Dream Factory" and the "Chinese Dream" of global influence become increasingly blurred. What is revealed illuminates how China's influence is transforming the global media industries from the inside out"--Provided by publisher.


The Chinese Stock Market Volume II

The Chinese Stock Market Volume II

Author: S. Cheng

Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Published: 2014-12-15

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781137464682

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Both quantitative and qualitative analysis is used to review China's stock market in a book containing the latest research on China's IPO market, the 2006-07 market bubble, the development of institutional investors, the stock index futures market, stock sector performance, corporate governance of listed firms and China's growth enterprise market.


Empirical Asset Pricing

Empirical Asset Pricing

Author: Turan G. Bali

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2016-02-26

Total Pages: 512

ISBN-13: 1118589475

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“Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.


Entropy Measures for Data Analysis

Entropy Measures for Data Analysis

Author: Karsten Keller

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2019-12-19

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13: 3039280325

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Entropies and entropy-like quantities play an increasing role in modern non-linear data analysis. Fields that benefit from this application range from biosignal analysis to econophysics and engineering. This issue is a collection of papers touching on different aspects of entropy measures in data analysis, as well as theoretical and computational analyses. The relevant topics include the difficulty to achieve adequate application of entropy measures and the acceptable parameter choices for those entropy measures, entropy-based coupling, and similarity analysis, along with the utilization of entropy measures as features in automatic learning and classification. Various real data applications are given.


Is the Chinese Economy a Miracle or a Bubble?

Is the Chinese Economy a Miracle or a Bubble?

Author: Lawrence J. Lau

Publisher: The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press

Published: 2024-04-23

Total Pages: 516

ISBN-13: 9882370950

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An indispensable reference to the development of the Chinese economy—past, present, and future. —DALE W. JORGENSON, Samuel W. Morris University Professor, Harvard University Since China undertook economic reform and opened its economy to the world in the late 1970s, its economy has been growing at an average annual rate of over 9 percent for more than four decades. No other economy in recorded history has grown at such a high rate and for such a long period as China has done. The questions that naturally arise are: Was the Chinese economy a miracle? Or was it a mere bubble? Will the Chinese economy begin to stagnate like the Japanese economy did in the 1990s, and perhaps decline? Will it be able to escape the “middle-income trap”? If it is not a miracle, can the Chinese development experience be replicated elsewhere? This book provides a comprehensive and detailed discussion of the remarkable growth of the Chinese economy over the past decades, by scrutinising the sources of economic growth, and evaluating the strategies adopted by the Chinese government to promote the transition from a centrally-planned economy to a market-based economy by means of the “dual-track” approach. It is argued that, while the Chinese economy is unique and exceptional in many ways, its development experience can be explained and attributed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A comprehensive and detailed discussion of the remarkable growth of the Chinese economy at nearly double-digit rates in the four decades since the reforms of Deng Xiaoping in 1978. This volume will be an indispensable reference to the development of the Chinese economy—past, present, and future. —Dale W. Jorgenson Samuel W. Morris University Professor, Harvard University Lawrence Lau’s discussion and economic reasoning with regard to the economic development of China dispels the view that the Chinese economic development since the opening up in the late 1970s was bubble. I found his reasoning fascinating and his arguments that other countries can replicate the Chinese experience to facilitate their own development sound and well-reasoned. This book will be read and discussed by scholars and practitioners interested in a better understanding of the road to economic development. —Myron Scholes Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (1997) Professor Emeritus, Stanford University The essays in this book present a rich and informed analysis of China’s long-run economic development. They provide a unique insight into the Chinese economy at a crucial point in the country’s development. The essays have deep analytical weight, reflecting Lawrence Lau’s outstanding contribution to economic thought and policy formation in China. —Peter Nolan Founding Director, Centre of Development Studies, University of Cambridge This is a great and well-researched book. As a distinguished scholar and renowned adviser to Chinese economic policymakers, Professor Lawrence Lau utilizes extensive data and economic models to evaluate the various sources of growth since China’s 1978 reforms from an innovative perspective. The book juxtaposes China’s experience with other East Asian economies, offering unique and deep insights into its distinctive development path. It’s essential reading for politicians, scholars, business leaders, investors, students, and anyone interested in understanding China better. —Junsen Zhang Dean and Distinguished University Professor, School of Economics, Zhejiang University Fellow of the Econometric Society