Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-04-04

Total Pages: 408

ISBN-13: 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Management Control Systems, Decision-Making, and Innovation Development
Management Control Systems, Decision-Making, and Innovation Development

Author: Dawid Szutowski

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2021-10-03

Total Pages: 250

ISBN-13: 1000471926

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The systematic approach to innovation development today is one of the world’s most prominent scientific fields, and with good reason. When applied correctly, such system produces regular outcomes, which consistently drive lasting competitive advantage. Unfortunately, as much as it is beneficial, the orchestration of an undisturbed flow of multiple complex, dynamic, and flexible innovation development processes is structurally demanding. In this book, a recognised innovation management specialist sets the record straight, offering a comprehensive approach to the improvement of innovation efficiency with the use of management control system. Unlike other books on the subject, it proposes original representation – the CDI model – of the relationships between management control system, decision-making quality, and innovation system efficiency and explains why management control is fundamental to innovation management. In addition to that, inside the reader will find several original developments. These include: the info-deficiency (I-D) model, depicting the various parameters hindering decision-making in innovation development; the product innovation development (PID) system, offering the original function-based approach to innovation management; and the composite innovation index – specially designed tool intended to evaluate the efficiency of an innovation development system. It will be of interest to researchers, academics, practitioners, and advanced students in the fields of management, strategy, and innovation. Chapter 4 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license available at http://www.taylorfrancis.com

Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making
Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making

Author: Panagiotis E. Petrakis

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-04-29

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 1137460792

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Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy. By extending the impact of uncertainty on entrepreneurship and the role of strategy in reducing uncertainty, Petrakis and Konstantakopoulou emphasize that uncertainty can be converted into creative advantage. Given that the business environment is changing both very quickly and very often, any wrong decisions taken can lead to devastation. This exciting new volume explains the reasons why we cannot see the complete the future and our position in it. This uncertainty affects entrepreneurship and how it can be turned into a competitive advantage for businesses sustainability.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author: Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2015-07-24

Total Pages: 350

ISBN-13: 0262331713

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An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.

Product Innovation Management
Product Innovation Management

Author: Stefano Biazzo

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-07-02

Total Pages: 197

ISBN-13: 3030750116

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This book offers new insights into the complex set of activities and decisions of product innovation management. It provides concepts, methods, and tools that can help accelerate the introduction of successful products to the market in an increasingly competitive and changing business landscape. It also offers examples and case studies, and it is the result of more than 20 years of study, research, and consulting carried out by the two authors in the field of innovation management. The book discusses the demanding challenges of product innovation and offers practitioners guidance on how to respond to these challenges. It presents a three-level framework (the “innovation pyramid”), which reflects the core components of a firm’s innovation capability: first, intelligence - absorbing information and knowledge from the outside world by looking beyond the familiar territories of the current market, technology, and customers; second, discovery - exploring opportunities for innovation through creative ideation and technology experimentation; and third, development - transforming opportunities into profitable new products and services.

Uncertainty and Behaviour
Uncertainty and Behaviour

Author: Melanie E. Kreye

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2016-04-14

Total Pages: 139

ISBN-13: 131700549X

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Uncertainty affects us in our everyday lives, and in a wide range of situations but how do individuals and indeed organisations respond to uncertainty and how does it impact their decision-making and actions? Based on the latest developments in academic research, the author offers solid advice on how to manage uncertainty in every-day life, bringing a new perspective to these issues and extrapolating this to offer implications for an organisational and managerial context. The author brings this emerging area of research to a wider audience by: Tying together insights from various fields including psychology, engineering, business and management. Creating a framework for usefully applying the research concepts in every-day life. Extrapolating insights from the psychology of individual decision makers to the organisational context and managerial decision-making. Creating highly applicable and impactful recommendations for how managers, organisations, and every day people can understand and manage uncertainty in their life. The book is divided into two main parts. Part I deals with the behaviour of individuals facing uncertainty and includes accessible explanations and examples of every-day applications, while Part II deals with behaviour in organisations facing uncertainty, where insights from Part I are combined and related to the organisational and work context to explore how, for example, (mis)-perceptions and decision-making biases impact managerial life. This is a must read for both managers and those who are seeking to better understand their own behaviour and management approach.

Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition (FMET 2022)
Proceedings of the 2022 2nd International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition (FMET 2022)

Author: Vilas Gaikar

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-02-10

Total Pages: 830

ISBN-13: 946463054X

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This is an open access book. As a leading role in the global megatrend of scientific innovation, China has been creating a more and more open environment for scientific innovation, increasing the depth and breadth of academic cooperation, and building a community of innovation that benefits all. Such endeavors are making new contributions to the globalization and creating a community of shared future. FMET is to bring together innovative academics and industrial experts in the field of Financial Management and Economic to a common forum. We will discuss and study about Financial marketing, Corporate finance, Management and administration of commercial Banks, International trade theory and practice, Economy and foreign economic management, Economic information management and other fields. FMET 2022 also aims to provide a platform for experts, scholars, engineers, technicians and technical R & D personnel to share scientific research achievements and cutting-edge technologies, understand academic development trends, expand research ideas, strengthen academic research and discussion, and promote the industrialization cooperation of academic achievements. To adapt to this changing world and China's fast development in the new era, 2022 2nd International Conference on Financial Management and Economic Transition to be held in August 2022. This conference takes "bringing together global wisdom in scientific innovation to promote high-quality development" as the theme and focuses on cutting-edge research fields including Financial Management and Economic Transition. FMET 2022 encourages the exchange of information at the forefront of research in different fields, connects the most advanced academic resources in China and the world, transforms research results into industrial solutions, and brings together talent, technology and capital to drive development. The conference sincerely invites experts, scholars, business people and other relevant personnel from universities, scientific research institutions at home and abroad to attend and exchange!

Sustainable Innovation
Sustainable Innovation

Author: Andrew Hargadon

Publisher: Stanford University Press

Published: 2015-06-24

Total Pages: 249

ISBN-13: 0804795029

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If we can carry in our pockets more computing power than the Apollo program needed to put a man on the moon, why can't we solve problems like climate change, famine, or poverty? The answer lies, in part, in the distinctive challenges of creating innovations that address today's pressing environmental and social problems. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Hargadon shows why sustainable innovation—the development of financially viable products that support a healthy environment and communities—is so difficult when compared to creating the next internet ventures or mobile apps that disregard these criteria. While other books treat innovation across sectors equally, Hargadon argues that most effective innovation strategies hinge on attention to the context in which they are pursued. Instead of relying on a stale set of "best practices," executives must craft their own strategies based on the particulars of their industries and markets. But, there are some rules of the road that foster a triple bottom line; this book provides a research-based framework that outlines the critical capabilities necessary to drive sustainable innovation: a long-term commitment, nexus work, science and policy expertise, recombinant innovation, and robust design. Sustainable Innovation draws on a wide range of historical and contemporary examples to show business readers and their companies how to stand on the shoulders of successful pioneers.

Multi-objective Decision Analysis
Multi-objective Decision Analysis

Author: Clinton W. Brownley

Publisher: Business Expert Press

Published: 2013-03-28

Total Pages: 167

ISBN-13: 1606494538

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Whether managing strategy, operations or products, knowing how to make the best decision in a complex, uncertain business environment is difficult. You might be faced with multiple, competing objectives, which means making trade-offs. To complicate matters, any uncertainty makes it hard to explicitly understand how different objectives will impact potential outcomes. This book will help you face these problems. It provides a decision analysis framework implemented as a simple spreadsheet tool. This multi-objective decision analysis framework helps you to measure trade-offs among objectives and incorporate uncertainties and risk preferences. With this book, you will be able to identify what information is needed to make a decision, define how that information should be combined, and, finally, provide quantifiable evidence to clearly communicate and justify the decision. The process involves minimal overhead and is perfect for busy professionals who need a simple, structured process for making, tracking, and communicating decisions. This process makes decision making more efficient by focusing only on information and factors that are well-defined, measureable, and relevant to the decision at hand. The framework requires clear characterization of a decision, ensuring that it can be traced and is consistent with the intended objectives and organizational values. Using this structured decision-making framework, anyone can consistently make better decisions to gain competitive and strategic advantage.