Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability
Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability

Author: Juha M. Alho

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2008-03-13

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 1139470353

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There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Global Trends 2040
Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Demographic Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy
Demographic Uncertainty and Fiscal Policy

Author:

Publisher: CEPS

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 9290796499

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It is well known by now that population ageing threatens the sustainability of fiscal policies in many countries. Although a number of policy options are available to address the problem, the uncertainty surrounding the future development of the population complicates matters. This paper analyses the economic, intergenerational and welfare effects of several alternative taxation policies that can be used to close the fiscal sustainability gap: immediate tax smoothing, delayed tax smoothing and balanced budget policies. A distinction is made between a consumption tax and a labour income tax. In addition, the influence of demographic uncertainty on the results of these policies is analysed from a number of perspectives. Simulated population shocks show the effect of demographic volatility on macroeconomic and fiscal variables. Stochastic simulations are presented to produce probabilistic bounds for the future development of the economic outcomes and to analyse the issue of optimal fiscal policy under uncertainty.

The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations
The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations

Author: Mr.Benedict J. Clements

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-10-26

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1513544888

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This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.

Labor Markets, Migration, and Mobility
Labor Markets, Migration, and Mobility

Author: William Cochrane

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2021-03-02

Total Pages: 237

ISBN-13: 9811592756

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This volume is devoted to three key themes central to studies in regional science: the sub-national labor market, migration, and mobility, and their analysis. The book brings together essays that cover a wide range of topics including the development of uncertainty in national and subnational population projections; the impacts of widening and deepening human capital; the relationship between migration, neighborhood change, and area-based urban policy; the facilitating role played by outmigration and remittances in economic transition; and the contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants. All of the contributions here are by leading figures in their fields and employ state-of-the art methodologies. Given the variety of topics and themes covered this book, it will appeal to a broad range of readers interested in both regional science and related disciplines such as demography, population economics, and public policy.

Developments in Demographic Forecasting
Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author: Stefano Mazzuco

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-09-28

Total Pages: 261

ISBN-13: 3030424723

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This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World
Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes in a Changing Pension World

Author: Robert Holzmann

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2012-11-01

Total Pages: 535

ISBN-13: 0821394797

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Nonfinancial Defined Contribution (NDC) schemes are now in their teens. The new pension concept was born in the early 1990s, implemented from the mid-1990s in Italy, Latvia, Poland and Sweden, legislated most recently in Norway and Egypt and serves as inspiration for other reform countries. This innovative unfunded individual account scheme created high hopes at a time when the world seemed to have been locked into a stalemate between piecemeal reforms of ailing traditional defined benefit schemes and introducing pre-funded financial account schemes. The experiences and conceptual issues of NDC in its childhood were reviewed in a prior anthology (Holzmann and Palmer, 2006). This new anthology published in 2 volumes serves to review its adolescence and with the aim of contributing to a successful adulthood. Volume 1 on Progress, Lessons, Implementation includes a detailed analysis of the experience and the key policy lessons in the old and new pilot countries and the implementation of NDCs elements in other reform countries. This volume 2 on Gender, Politics, Financial Stability includes deeper and new analyses of these issues that found little or no attention in the 2006 publication. The gender perspective includes 5 chapters with, perhaps, the most complete discussion on gender and pension issues available to date. The financial stability perspective addresses in 6 chapters critical micro- and macroeconomic aspects such as the balancing mechanism, the use of a reserve fund, the handling of legacy costs, and technicalities related to the management of the longevity risk when designing annuities. While the 2 volumes address many issues it also opens a number of new questions for which good answers are not yet readily available.