Trinidad and Tobago faced unprecedented challenges in 2020–21. The combined effects of COVID-19 and energy production and price shocks pushed the economy further into recession. A decisive policy response helped contain the virus spread and protect lives and livelihoods. The fiscal position worsened due to significant tax revenues shortfalls, pushing public debt up. The vaccination pace accelerated recently, but vaccine hesitancy remains high, amid a potential new wave of infections.
Activity returned to its pre-COVID level in 2021. Inflation remains well above the NBK’s 4–6 percent target band, and spillovers from sanctions on Russia will exacerbate price pressures and weaken economic growth in 2022. Kazakhstan benefits from strong fiscal and external buffers but risks to the outlook are elevated due to the uncertain impact on Kazakhstan of the sanctions on Russia and heightened domestic tensions since the January social unrest episode. In the medium term, non-oil growth under the baseline is expected to converge to about 4 percent. Sustainable growth will require greater economic diversification. Climate-related challenges are acute for Kazakhstan given its outsized hydrocarbon sector, high per-capita greenhouse gas emissions, and low domestic energy prices.
Grenada’s economy was hit hard by the pandemic, with a decline in real output of 14 percent in 2020 from both a collapse of tourism-related activities and the suspension of in-person classes at Saint George’s University (SGU). Growth in 2021 is estimated to have partly recovered to 5.6 percent, driven by construction and agriculture. The authorities’ policy response helped mitigate the pandemic’s impact through containment measures, increased health and social spending, and an expanded public investment program (including to build resilience to natural disasters). Central government debt rose to 70 percent of GDP in 2021 (from 59 percent in 2019) and the external position has worsened. The financial sector has so far weathered the crisis well.
With both domestic and external financing expected to dry up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, this book argues that there is a need for fresh ideas and new strategies for achieving sustainable development in Africa. In addition to triggering the most severe recession in nearly a century, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global value chains, causing unprecedented damage to healthcare systems, economies, and well-being, hitting the world’s most vulnerable people the hardest. Even before the pandemic, Africa was suffering from the effects of low commodity prices, sluggish GDP growth, high debt levels, low levels of domestic savings, and weak private capital inflows. This book argues that now, as the continent emerges from the current crisis, it will be important to reconfigure current financing sources under a forward-looking framework that incorporates other non-traditional financing tools and mechanisms such as public-private partnerships, sovereign wealth funds, gender lens investing, new growth drivers, and emerging and disruptive technologies. Finally, the book concludes by adopting a sectoral approach and examining the real economy impacts of new growth drivers such as agriculture value chains, industrialization, tourism, and the blue economy. Drawing on a range of original research as well as insights from practice, this book will be a useful guide for Global Development and African Studies researchers, as well as for policy makers, investors, finance specialists, and global business practitioners and entrepreneurs.
The economy continues to recover while inflation is low. Banks’ credit is expanding, and the financial sector appears sound and stable. The current account is in surplus and international reserve coverage is adequate. The fiscal position in FY2023 was better than budgeted, while public debt remained below the authorities’ soft debt target.
Although Timor-Leste has made considerable progress in many areas since its independence in 2002, it faces significant medium-term challenges. The nation has pressing development needs, young institutions, and is highly dependent on oil. Oil revenues from active fields, which have been the main source of funding for government spending, are drying up. The non-oil private sector economy remains underdeveloped and lack of good jobs and high youth unemployment are serious concerns.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights a decline in the real GDP of Trinidad and Tobago of 6 percent in 2016, with a further decline of 3.25 percent projected by the IMF staff in 2017. The combined impact of weak growth and low energy sector revenues increased the overall fiscal deficit to 12.1 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2016, though it is expected to drop to 11.0 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2017. Meanwhile, the current account deteriorated by 14.5 percentage points to a deficit of 10.7 percent of GDP in 2016. The government has taken steps to adjust fiscal imbalances, through efforts to reform the energy tax regime, reduce fuel subsidies, and boost nonenergy revenues.
Following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, economic growth recovered in 2021, with non-oil GDP growth reaching 4.6 percent, despite being negatively impacted by floods. Inflation increased markedly since 2021 owing to the floods and supply-side disruptions, as well as continually rising fuel and food prices. Oil production increased and will ramp up substantially over the medium term.
Outlook and Risks. Economic activity is projected to moderate after a strong recovery from the pandemic. After growing by 15 percent in 2021 and 12 percent in 2022, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2023 and 2.0 percent over the medium term as spare capacity is exhausted. Revenue growth and fiscal consolidation have increased the primary balance to 1.2 percent of GDP from FY2022 onwards, which is projected to reduce public debt from 64 percent of GDP in 2022 to 53 percent in 2028. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, including a sharp slowdown in advanced economies, further increases in commodity prices, and climate-related disasters.
The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks.
