The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Author: John H. Cochrane

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2023-01-17

Total Pages: 585

ISBN-13: 0691243247

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

A comprehensive account of how government deficits and debt drive inflation Where do inflation and deflation ultimately come from? The fiscal theory of the price level offers a simple answer: Prices adjust so that the real value of government debt equals the present value of taxes less spending. Inflation breaks out when people don’t expect the government to fully repay its debts. The fiscal theory is well suited to today’s economy: Financial innovation undermines money demand, and central banks don’t control the money supply or aggressively change interest rates, invalidating classic theories, while large debts and deficits threaten inflation and constrain monetary policy. This book presents a comprehensive account of this important theory from one of its leading developers and advocates. John Cochrane aims to make fiscal theory useful as a conceptual framework and modeling tool, and for analyzing history and policy. He merges fiscal theory with standard models in which central banks set interest rates, giving a novel account of monetary policy. He generalizes the theory to explain data and make realistic predictions. For example, inflation decreases in recessions despite deficits because discount rates fall, raising the value of debt; specifying that governments promise to partially repay debt avoids classic puzzles and allows the theory to apply at all times, not just during periods of high inflation. Cochrane offers an extensive rethinking of monetary doctrines and institutions through the eyes of fiscal theory, and analyzes the era of zero interest rates and post-pandemic inflation. Filled with research by Cochrane and others, The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level offers important new insights about fiscal and monetary policy.

The Economic Theory of Price Indices
The Economic Theory of Price Indices

Author: Franklin M. Fisher

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2014-05-10

Total Pages: 134

ISBN-13: 1483271153

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The Economic Theory of Price Indices: Two Essays on the Effects of Taste, Quality, and Technological Change is concerned with the effects of consumer taste, product quality, and technological change on price indices. Special attention is paid on technological change in the simple two-sector production model of Rybczynski and Uzawa. The effects of the general case of changing factor supplies and factor-augmenting change on the real national output deflator are also examined. Comprised of two essays, this book begins with an analysis of the pure theory of the true cost-of-living index, which may be considered as an idealization of indices like the consumer price index and others of that type. The essay explores how the true cost-of-living index is affected by changes in consumer taste, quality changes in purchased goods, and the introduction of new goods into the market place. The second essay deals with the pure theory of the national output deflator and provides a foundation for the measurement of real national output (or product). It shows that the usual inequalities relating Paasche and Laspeyres to the true index are reversed (from what they are in cost-of-living theory) for the case of production. It also assesses the implications of changing production possibilities caused by technological change or a change in factor supplies. This monograph will be a useful resource for mathematicians, economists, and others interested in economic theory and mathematical economics.

Price Index Concepts and Measurement
Price Index Concepts and Measurement

Author: W. Erwin Diewert

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2010-02-15

Total Pages: 531

ISBN-13: 0226148572

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Although inflation is much feared for its negative effects on the economy, how to measure it is a matter of considerable debate that has important implications for interest rates, monetary supply, and investment and spending decisions. Underlying many of these issues is the concept of the Cost-of-Living Index (COLI) and its controversial role as the methodological foundation for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Price Index Concepts and Measurements brings together leading experts to address the many questions involved in conceptualizing and measuring inflation. They evaluate the accuracy of COLI, a Cost-of-Goods Index, and a variety of other methodological frameworks as the bases for consumer price construction.

Property Price Index
Property Price Index

Author: W. Erwin Diewert

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2020-01-25

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9784431559405

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This book answers the question of how exactly property price indexes should be constructed. The formation and collapse of property bubbles has had a profound impact on the economic administration of many nations. The property price bubble that began around the mid-1980s in Japan has been called the 20th century's biggest bubble. In its aftermath, the country faced a period of long-term economic stagnation dubbed the "lost decade." Sweden and the United States have also faced collapses of property bubbles in the 20th and early 21st centuries, respectively. It has been pointed out that the "information gap" that existed between policy-making authorities and the property (including housing) and financial markets was a problem. In 2009, the IMF proposed the creation of a housing price index to the G20 in order to fill this information gap, and the proposal was adopted. Furthermore, in 2011, it was suggested that the next economic crisis would be caused by a bubble in commercial property prices, and it was decided to create a commercial property index as well. This book provides practical examples of how the theory of property price indexes can be applied to the issues of property as a non-homogenous good and a technological and environmental change.

Consumer Price Index Manual
Consumer Price Index Manual

Author: International Labour Office

Publisher: International Labour Organization

Published: 2004-08-25

Total Pages: 578

ISBN-13: 9789221136996

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.

The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

Author: Willem H. Buiter

Publisher:

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 84

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

It is not common for an entire scholarly literature to be based on a fallacy, that is, 'on faulty reasoning; misleading or unsound argument'. The 'fiscal theory of the price level', recently re-developed by Woodford, Cochrane, Sims and others, is an example of a fatally flawed research programme. The source of the fallacy is an economic misspecification. The proponents of the fiscal theory of the price level do not accept the fundamental proposition that the government's intertemporal budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the economy-wide endogenous variables. Instead they require it to be satisfied only in equilibrium. This economic misspecification has implications for the mathematical or logical properties of the equilibria supported by models purporting to demonstrate the properties of the fiscal approach. These include: overdetermined (internally inconsistent) equilibria; anomalies like the apparent ability to price things that do not exist; the need for arbitrary restrictions on the exogenous and predetermined variables in the government's budget constraint; and anomalous behaviour of the equilibrium' price sequences, including behaviour that will ultimately violate physical resource constraints. The issue is of more than academic interest. Policy conclusions could be drawn from the fiscal theory of the price level that would be harmful if they influenced the actual behaviour of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The fiscal theory of the price level implies that a government could exogenously fix its real spending, revenue and seigniorage plans, and that the general price level would adjust the real value of its contractual nominal debt obligations so as to ensure government solvency. When reality dawns, the result could be painful fiscal tightening, government default, or unplanned recourse to the inflation tax.

Theory of the Price Index
Theory of the Price Index

Author: W. Eichhorn

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2012-03-01

Total Pages: 95

ISBN-13: 9783642454936

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We wish to thank Georg Hasenkamp for valuable comments on an earlier draft of the manuscript and Steven Diamond for his kindness in reading the manu script and providing advice regarding the style of the exposition. We are also grateful to Miss Ingeborg Kasper for her careful typing of the manu script. Contents 1. Introduction 4 2. Price Indices Depending only on Prices 2. 1 Definition, Examples, Implications 4 2. 2 Characterizations of Pri~e Indices 15 3. Price Indices Depending on Prices and Quantities 22 3. 1 Definition, Examples 23 3. 2 Fisher's System of Tests 29 3. 3 Implications and Characterizations 35 3. 4 Independence and Inconsistency of Fisher's Tests 44 3. 5 General Solution of the Inconsistency Problem 54 4. Price Levels, Price Indices, and Fisher's Equation 59 of Exchange 4. 1 Definition, Examples, Implications 60 4. 2 Characterizations of Price Levels 64 4. 3 Fisher's Equation of Exchange Reconsidered 72 Bibliography 5. 83 6. Index 88 1. Introduction In the face of the economic, political, and social problems resul ting from world-wide inflation, theories of the price index have gained new attention. This newfound interest in price indices stems from the fact that all such indices are designed to serve as yardsticks for measuring the price behavior of goods and services. That is, all price indices relate to the concept of the 'purchasing power of money'. If prices increase, then the value of the unit of money declines, i. e.

Producer Price Index Manual
Producer Price Index Manual

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-09-03

Total Pages: 698

ISBN-13: 9781589063044

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

The producer price index (PPI) measures the rate at which the prices of producer goods and services are changing overtime. It is a key statistic for economic and business decision making and inflation monitoring. The Producer Price Index Manual: Theory and Practice provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, uses, methods, and economic theory of the PPI, including information on classifications, sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of the PPI. The Manual supersedes the previous international guidance on PPIs (available in the Manual on Producers’ Price Indices for Industrial Goods, published by the United Nations Statistics Division in 1979). The Manual's conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts1993 and recent developments in index number theory. Preparation of the Manual was undertaken by the Intersecretariat Working Group on Price Statistics through a technical expert group chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the ILO, the OECD, the UN Economic Commission for Europe, the World Bank, national statistical offices, and academic institutions.

Interest and Prices
Interest and Prices

Author: Michael Woodford

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2011-12-12

Total Pages: 805

ISBN-13: 1400830168

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.

Index Theory and Price Statistics
Index Theory and Price Statistics

Author: Peter von der Lippe

Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 592

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This textbook integrates mathematical index theory and its application in official price statistics. It tries to bridge theory and practice, due to the apparent divergence between mathematicians with ever more sophisticated and complex models and practitioners with problems that are more and more difficult to understand without broad knowledge and some experience. The text offers an introduction into axiomatic, microeconomic and stochastic reasoning as regards index numbers, with moderately difficult mathematics. It also summarizes many ongoing discussions concerning methodological merits and demerits of specific indices, such as consumer price-, producer price-, unit value- and chain indices, in official price statistics. The book is comprehensive and presents a readable overview of a great number of topics in modern price index theory and their application in inflation measurement, deflation of aggregates in National Accounts, sampling and quality adjustment in price collection and other important though controversial issues.